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Lert

Lert's T8 experiment; conclusions

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Many of you will be familiar with the T8 MM experiment I've been running over the past few weeks. In it I did 100 solo battles in T8 ships and recorded server population at the time and the MM I was dealt.

My aim with this experiment was not to prove or disprove anything as 100 battles is not enough of a sample size for that, but 100 battles would still be enough to show a tendency. One of the most often heard complaints about T8 is that it sees T10 'all the time', and with this experiment I wanted to shine a little bit of light on that claim. So without further ado, the results:

Over 100 solo battles in T8 ships, I got:

37% top tier battles
18% tier 9 battles
45% tier 10 battles

So, slightly less than half my battles were bottom tier against tier 10s and slightly over a third were top tier against T6s.

"How reliable are these numbers?"

In the grand scheme of things, somewhat reliable-ish. I stand by these numbers, but 100 matches is too small a sample size to really prove anything. If I ran the experiment again each of those numbers could easily go up or down by a number of percent, but I don't foresee the 45% number suddenly being like 70% for someone else. Chances are someone else will run 40% to 50%, give or take.

"But half bottom tier is way too many! / Less than half battles bottom tier is fine"

Now, you see, both of those are opinions, and beyond the scope of my experiment. You'll have to decide for yourself whether slightly less than half of your battles in a solo T8 being bottom tier is acceptable or not. I can't make that decision for you.

For me personally though, it's fine. It's better than I expected even, I had expected a number in the 60s for bottom tier, so a number in the 40s is better than I thought I'd get.

"Did server population have an effect?"

At one point I would've tentatively said yes, that low server population led to more top tier matches, but later results in the experiment make me believe that was just an RNG artefact. Right now I've not seen enough to make me believe that population has a measurable influence on the amount of bottom tier vs top tier battles.

"How come these numbers are more generous than your T5 experiment, towards top tier?"

I believe this is because T5 has only 1 tier below it that it can pull opponents from and 2 tiers above it, tier 6 and 7. Tier 8 meanwhile can draw opponents from 2 tiers below and 2 tiers above, giving it a larger opponent pool, which in turn means more top tier battles. However, this is just a theory.

Discuss below.

 

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Pretty close to what I experience at both tier 5 and 8. 50%ish bottom tier 33% top tier and 17% mid tier.

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It's enough to make me never willingly play T8 unless power grinding.

With the addition of Insignia which can only be unlocked at T10, T10 permacamo and now these grinds for the unique upgrades it's clear WG want me to play T10, not T8 and I'm happy to oblige them.

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I think you see more tier X with tier VIII ships because the tier structure ends at X. Therefore, for ships at this level to get a game they will have to draw from tiers IX and VIII. The paucity of tier IX games may be, in part, an artifact of the fact that many go past IX as fast as they can in order to get their tier IX ships. The reason that you see more tier VIII ships also may be due to the fact that there are quite a few tier VIII premiums (Tirpitz, Bismark, Atago, etc.) that people like to play. 

Edited by Snargfargle

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I like playing T-8 ships in random. I just look at the other team ships and do my best.{which some games is not to good }

The other day had a game 6 T-10  4 T-9 2 T-8.. The Kiev kick butt top xp on a winning team.

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So working as intended. Tier 8 has always been +2/-2 so the natural conclusion to this is just that there are more tier 10s than before which makes sense as it is normal to progress up a line.

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Lert, that's an interesting research you made it there. Thanks for the time doing this service for the community. Makes you wonder if maybe doing a Div with a T9 might not help a player snatch higher chances of being mid-tier at least, I'm shocked to see that T8s see only 18% Mid Tier games, not that it'd be entirely worth getting rid of the chance of seeing a bunch of T6 to bully just for a chance see a bit less powerful ships.

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Interesting observations @Lert.  I recall you saying you were a BB main.  Did you run anything else or mix premiums/tech tree?  I don't think it would skew the results much and I agree there is probably a +\-X percentage based on individual play.  However I think it is negligible and would reflect in the same ballpark figure you came up with.

The next and final question more important than the uptiering...did you feel relevant and or make an impact in at least 51% of your Battles?

+1 great post

Edited by Kongo_Pride

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2 minutes ago, Kongo_Pride said:

Interesting observations @Lert.  I recall you saying you were a BB main.  Did you run anything else or mix premiums/tech tree?

Mostly battleships and mostly premiums, you can see the ships I used in the original T8 experiment thread here. I did also run cruisers and also tech tree ships.

I did feel relevant in most my battles.

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2 minutes ago, warheart1992 said:

Interesting data, but out of curiosity, what were the ships you used to get those 100 battles?

See above.

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37% against 45% is a pretty close number, far from "im always botton tier". And considering that 55% of the battles you are inside the +1/-1 that many players cry about.

 

Also, considering that of those 45% of T10 battles, many of those can be battles with more T8/9s than T10.

 

One other thing, this research was made during a T8-10 campaign, so you have many players playing high tiers to complete that campaign.

 

Gj @Lert nice research. :Smile_honoring:

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5 minutes ago, Xlap said:

One other thing, this research was made during a T8-10 campaign, so you have many players playing high tiers to complete that campaign.

Good point, that might have actually skewed my results slightly towards T10.

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41 minutes ago, Snargfargle said:

I think you see more tier X with tier VIII ships because the tier structure ends at X. Therefore, for ships at this level to get a game they will have to draw from tiers IX and VIII. The paucity of tier IX games may be, in part, an artifact of the fact that many go past IX as fast as they can in order to get their tier IX ships. The reason that you see more tier VIII ships also may be due to the fact that there are quite a few tier VIII premiums (Tirpitz, Bismark, Atago, etc.) that people like to play. 

umm no bud just no. you first sentence makes zero sense,  Tier 7 can see a max of T9 I am willing to bet the numbers after 100 battles may be near the same as with T8. Plus 2 mm is still +2 mm

 

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2 minutes ago, Battleship_Constitution said:

umm no bud just no. you first sentence makes zero sense,  Tier 7 can see a max of T9 I am willing to bet the numbers after 100 battles may be near the same as with T8. Plus 2 mm is still +2 mm

 

Tier X games never (at least in my experience) have just tier X ships in them and rarely have only tier X and IX in them. They usually see VIII-X ships. "Willing to bet" isn't data. Do as Lert did and collect some data. 

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 I run mxStat and have stats back to 4/23 for my account. Tier 9 is also interesting from this perspective.

FOR (48) TIER 9 RANDOM BATTLES in BALT9, MISSOURI, BUFFALO, IOWA, FLETCHER:

  • T10 = 37 (24W/13L)
  • T9 = 11 (11W/0L)

FOR (31) TIER 8 RANDOM BATTLES in ALABAMA, KUTUZOV, TIRPITZ, BALT8, CLEVE8

  • T10=17 (12W/5L)
  • T9=6 (5W/1L)
  • T8=8 (8W/0L)

Notice almost all the losses are when uptiered.

My conclusion is just run tier 10 ;)

NOTE: Corrected for miscounting in original post and added my win loss for each category.

Edited by GrandmasGoneWild

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Did you note waiting times, i.e., the longer you waited the more likely you were bottom tier, or vice versa, or maybe no correlation?

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12 minutes ago, FrodoFraggin said:

Did you note waiting times, i.e., the longer you waited the more likely you were bottom tier, or vice versa, or maybe no correlation?

No.

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1 hour ago, KonigstigerVII said:

People remember the negative more than they do the positive. Thanks for the work @Lert.

I second this comment. Lol. Thanks Lert!

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1 hour ago, KonigstigerVII said:

People remember the negative more than they do the positive. Thanks for the work @Lert.

This and they often take the single digit sample size they have from a single gaming session as fact.

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I played Kutuzov last night, first time in probably over a year. Both were T10 and I racked up 94k and 142k games. That ship does not care what tier the opponents are. I really need to play that bote more often and with a captain who has more than 10 points!

 

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Lert, thanks for the research! This is really valuable data.

Challenge for all: document any games you've had in the last 2 years where all the ships were Tier X or all the ships were Tier IX. I'm guessing it has happened a few times but almost always in the middle of the night ... 4am kind of thing. I have never seen such a thing at the higher tiers so was curious if anybody else had. Disclaimer: I have only recently been playing higher tier games.

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