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Lensar

Ranked T10 Win Rates

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The problem with looking at winrates in ranked battles, especially this early in the season, is that it's unclear how to interpret them. For one, there's probably a sampling bias, with less popular ships such as the Hakuryu or Republique probably being played by older or more experienced players. The other problem is that if the players of a certain ship are more highly skilled or the ship is just better suited for ranked it could raise the winrate of the ship, but it could also decrease it by pushing these ships into higher ranks (on average) where they're less likely to win. The effects of player skill/how good a ship is on the ship's winrate is therefore, at best, ambiguous. 

Just to give a practical example: the desMoines has incredibly high popularity and a very good winrate; implying that it performs extremely well despite being available to many less-experienced players (in my experience, the desMoines or Montana are usually the first tier 10s people get on the NA server). However, these results can also be explained by the desMoines still being mostly played at lower tiers (tiers 10-5), where the competition is less fierce. 

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5 minutes ago, senseNOTmade said:

The problem with looking at winrates in ranked battles, especially this early in the season, is that it's unclear how to interpret them. For one, there's probably a sampling bias, with less popular ships such as the Hakuryu or Republique probably being played by older or more experienced players. The other problem is that if the players of a certain ship are more highly skilled or the ship is just better suited for ranked it could raise the winrate of the ship, but it could also decrease it by pushing these ships into higher ranks (on average) where they're less likely to win. The effects of player skill/how good a ship is on the ship's winrate is therefore, at best, ambiguous. 

Just to give a practical example: the desMoines has incredibly high popularity and a very good winrate; implying that it performs extremely well despite being available to many less-experienced players (in my experience, the desMoines or Montana are usually the first tier 10s people get on the NA server). However, these results can also be explained by the desMoines still being mostly played at lower tiers (tiers 10-5), where the competition is less fierce. 

I think those are fair points.

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I really think Minotaur is a much stronger ship than the stats showed there.

I am seeing too many smoke Minotaur which is honestly quite useless. The smoke won't make the ship a good damage dealer.

However, radar Minotaur is incredibly scary to all the DDs out there. Unlike Des Moines or Moskva who usually act as stationary radar stations, Minotaur can actually roam and flank. This makes it much harder for DDs to anticipate and prepare.

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The Khab's damage numbers seem rather low.  Each time I ran out my Khab in ranked, I was always up around 100k damage.  Not sure if that lowish seeming damage number is due to a different style of play than mine or lesser players playing it (which seems sort of unlikely given the respectable, above 50% WR) or something else.

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Even in Ranked, Conk's gaudy damage numbers don't translate into Ws.

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7 minutes ago, Taichunger said:

Even in Ranked, Conk's gaudy damage numbers don't translate into Ws.

It can be shut down real easy by a DD..or 2-3 well placed AP salvos from a BB.Also it does not do well vs intense focus fire so cannot push into a zone like other BBs can. You have to play the ship defensively..which is not good if you need to be aggressive.

Edited by Robinhood_

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Just now, Taichunger said:

Even in Ranked, Conk's gaudy damage numbers don't translate into Ws.

No, but in the *save a star* meta, it works for the player. Looks at Gearing stats:

I must be doing something right. 83 % W/R in 6 matches. 36k avg damage.

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1 hour ago, Crucis said:

The Khab's damage numbers seem rather low.  Each time I ran out my Khab in ranked, I was always up around 100k damage.  Not sure if that lowish seeming damage number is due to a different style of play than mine or lesser players playing it (which seems sort of unlikely given the respectable, above 50% WR) or something else.

This, coupled with the fact that if you detect the Mino it can radar you. If as a DD you think BB AP dmg is OP, get close to a Mino, tell me which is worse.

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5 hours ago, Lensar said:

From: https://na.wows-numbers.com/season/id,9/

qoO7Ijy.jpg

Poor Shima and Groz.

Just got rank 8 in my shim.  Had 5 wins in a row with mine.  This also shows damage isn't coming from dds.

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1 hour ago, Kevs02Accord said:

This, coupled with the fact that if you detect the Mino it can radar you. If as a DD you think BB AP dmg is OP, get close to a Mino, tell me which is worse.

Depends...is that Mino sitting broadside without support?  The Z will wreck it before it can can wreck me.  But, a well played "Manotaur" (the proper name for a radar Mino) is a scary sight for every DD.  I can predict where a DM's radar will be.  It's like they have designated parking spots.  A Manotaur's radar location is darn unpredictable...if the captain truly understands how to play this way.   

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1 hour ago, Kevs02Accord said:

This, coupled with the fact that if you detect the Mino it can radar you. If as a DD you think BB AP dmg is OP, get close to a Mino, tell me which is worse.

Well, the Mino will be pretty painful if you blindly sail into his detection range.  But do remember that this is a Khab I'm talking about here.  Sure, you can get a Khab's concealment down below that of a Minotaur, to around 7.7 or 7.8, but only at the expense of having decent ability and 4 captain skill points that are probably better used elsewhere.  The Minotaur won't really need radar to see you, unless you happen to be using smoke (or your own, or someone else's) or possibly hiding behind an island.  Myself, I'm constantly moving and have ignored everything except camo paint when it comes to concealment on my Khab, since it's my desire to be constantly firing my guns, and I mount a repair party rather than smoke.  For my Khab, speed is life.

Of course, a cagey Minotaur player could just let me close on him until I've detected him, or worse, if he's hidden behind an island, he could let me get so deep in his concealment bubble that a Khab would have little chance of getting away.  In that case, the only 2 things that might save the Khab are being better at dodging than the Mino player is at aiming, and maybe the Khab's armor will bounce some hits if you try to never let the Mino have a clean side shot.

I will say thought, that if a Khab can get outside of 10-11 km from a Mino, things will get very different, because an agility build Khab can dance around those floaty Mino shells all day long (while he's silently taunting you with "See ya, suckah!)"  I've been on the Mino side of this situation.  Trying to hit a Khab at longer ranges with a Mino while the Khab is running away and dodging is pretty much a waste of time, or it was for me at least.

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2 hours ago, Taichunger said:

Even in Ranked, Conk's gaudy damage numbers don't translate into Ws.

but, it can be top damage dealer and not lose a star.  This is also why I hate seeing a Conq  on my team.

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Need to nerf Hakuryu on next patch!

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I wonder how the "not lose a star" ranking stacks up vs the win rates.

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I see a surprisingly small number of Conquerors top XP on a loss. A DD that takes the free cap and yolo torp trades beats them.

Of course, a DD that spots 100k and takes 1m potential damage gets bottom XP, so. :Smile-angry:

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I highly doubt these numbers since all but 4 ships have a win rate above or equal to 50%. If you calculate the average by summing the WR * Popularity product of each ship, the result should be 50%. Am I the only person who sees this??

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13 minutes ago, Bronco said:

I highly doubt these numbers since all but 4 ships have a win rate above or equal to 50%. If you calculate the average by summing the WR * Popularity product of each ship, the result should be 50%. Am I the only person who sees this??

Yeah, that is rather suspicious. I never checked, but is wows-numbers one of those sites that only pulls stats from people who get looked up?

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2 minutes ago, Edgecase said:

Yeah, that is rather suspicious. I never checked, but is wows-numbers one of those sites that only pulls stats from people who get looked up?

Either that or they only include stats for players with a minimum number of games played. I know that the matchmaking monitor which uses wows-numbers as its source only displays stats for players with at least 10 games played with their selected ship. If that's the case, then these numbers are meaningless. I've played 6 different T10 ships and my Hindy is the only one I've played more than 10.

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26 minutes ago, Edgecase said:

Of course, a DD that spots 100k and takes 1m potential damage gets bottom XP, so. :Smile-angry:

 

I started mainly with cruisers but got frustrated when DDs would allow targets to drop detection, especially after they DCed. So I switched to my Gearing and tried to keep things spotted while tanking a lot of potential damage. I'm lucky if I'm not at the bottom.

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1 hour ago, Edgecase said:

I see a surprisingly small number of Conquerors top XP on a loss. A DD that takes the free cap and yolo torp trades beats them.

Of course, a DD that spots 100k and takes 1m potential damage gets bottom XP, so. :Smile-angry:

Yeah can we all take a vote and encourage Warships to change this please.  I hate being bottom Xp in the Gearing after said type game :(

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1 hour ago, Bronco said:

I started mainly with cruisers but got frustrated when DDs would allow targets to drop detection, especially after they DCed. So I switched to my Gearing and tried to keep things spotted while tanking a lot of potential damage. I'm lucky if I'm not at the bottom.

It doesn't seem as if spotting damage gets a lot of respect when it comes to calculating base XP.  

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yep, i just realized this yesterday that ranked exp is highly based upon damage dealt. Conqueror being the dmg farmer certainly helps in a loss. I played 4  games of Conqueror (all loss) and only lsot 1 star. THink i will be selfish and play only conqueror from now on.

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2 hours ago, Edgecase said:

Yeah, that is rather suspicious. I never checked, but is wows-numbers one of those sites that only pulls stats from people who get looked up?

There is also the fact that people with their stats hidden don't get included.

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