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TheLastReaper

In the last 170 TYL Containers I've gotten...

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In the last 170 TYL containers I've done I've only gotten TWO super containers.

I call total [edited] on whoever said it was 4% chance of super container. Sorry but no freaking way. No way it is. What is hilarious is for the last almost 50 containers I've been swearing to myself I just would doTYL ONLY till I got one more  SC then NEVER do it again. Can't even get that 1 last SC. Joke and troll mode brought to you by WG...

 

This is steaming crap WG. You have some algorithm to punish people who only do TYL or something. Idk what else to make of this. That or you are telling me I have saved up all my bad luck in life for this one thing... just no.

 

 

Edited by TheLastReaper
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Oh no!  I got less free stuff than I expected for paying nothing!  Whatever shall we do???  

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I mean I’ve gone through a weeks worth of TYL and ended up with 3 SC and I’ve also gone through like 2 months without one. You do realize if it is 4% that means a total average. Your sample size is much to small. 

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1 minute ago, Belyy_Klyk said:

I mean I’ve gone through a weeks worth of TYL and ended up with 3 SC and I’ve also gone through like 2 months without one. You do realize if it is 4% that means a total average. Your sample size is much to small. 

Yes well I'm on track for a 1% SC chance and approaching 200 containers doesn't sounds like a small sample size.

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5 minutes ago, mavfin87 said:

Oh no!  I got less free stuff than I expected for paying nothing!  Whatever shall we do???  

 

troll trolling GIF-downsized(1).gif

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I do only TYL ansd usually get 3 containers a day.  Last one I got was about a week ago and it was 100 Victor Lima, the Witherer flags.  One before that was the extra long repair party, so I'll put that on my Richelieu for ranked.  Gonna try that instead of the Bismark and see what happens.

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1 minute ago, TheLastReaper said:

Yes well I'm on track for a 1% SC chance and approaching 200 containers doesn't sounds like a small sample size.

Yeah and I could choose from December-February when I ended up with about 5 or 6 and say I had a 10% chance. Flip a coming and at 100 flips you might have 80 heads and 20 tails. But as you go on and on it will get closer to 50-50

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My brother's almost 38 years old... and the last time he bought one of those 'one in six wins!' packs of Sprite he was angry when none of them were winners.

It's one in six ever produced, not one per six pack bro.

You could have a six pack of nothing but 'sorry try again's or 6 winners.

Math.

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9 minutes ago, Belyy_Klyk said:

Yeah and I could choose from December-February when I ended up with about 5 or 6 and say I had a 10% chance. Flip a coming and at 100 flips you might have 80 heads and 20 tails. But as you go on and on it will get closer to 50-50

 

Pretty much this. The problem with randomness is that it doesn't look like randomness, especially to mortal humans.

Edited by pikohan

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170 is not a large sample size for something with low odds. Not to mention that with a lot of players doing what you have been, odds are some outliers on both sides will show uneven with a large sample size.

You are basically subconsciously p-hacking.

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too small of a sample size, 1000+ samples required for full determination on the actual statistics.

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Just got my first SC after about 300 containers the other day, have not  opened it yet, afraid of the disappointment it will have inside. lol  So yes, 4%, 3%, 2% chance, don't think so, more like less than 1%, then of course there are those favored sons in the game that seem to get SC's all the freaking time, for some reason.

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52 minutes ago, TheLastReaper said:

In the last 170 TYL containers I've done I've only gotten TWO super containers.

I call total [edited] on whoever said it was 4% chance of super container. Sorry but no freaking way. No way it is. What is hilarious is for the last almost 50 containers I've been swearing to myself I just would doTYL ONLY till I got one more  SC then NEVER do it again. Can't even get that 1 last SC. Joke and troll mode brought to you by WG...

 

This is steaming crap WG. You have some algorithm to punish people who only do TYL or something. Idk what else to make of this. That or you are telling me I have saved up all my bad luck in life for this one thing... just no.

 

 

Err, i went 500 containers between SC's, then got a smoke mod....:Smile_teethhappy:

Seriously though, it's RNG at work, stop worrying so much about a rare drop that probably won't be anything good anyway...:Smile_smile:

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1 hour ago, TheLastReaper said:

I call total [edited] on whoever said it was 4% chance of super container.

The way chance works, if some one gets 8% the other guy has to bear the brunt.

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10 minutes ago, Sovereigndawg said:

The way chance works, if some one gets 8% the other guy has to bear the brunt.

I have almost 1/4th what the SC rate is should be at near 1%, so by your logic someone has a 16% (x4) SC crate.

Was that supposed to make me feel better? Just makes it worse! :Smile_facepalm:

Edited by TheLastReaper

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1 minute ago, TheLastReaper said:

When I have almost 1/4th the SC rate is should be near 1%, so by your logic someone has a 16% (x4) SC crate.

Was that supposed to make me feel better? Just makes it worse! :Smile_facepalm:

Doing the Public test will get you more consistent rewards than Super Containers. Haven't had one in a long time myself if that makes you feel better.

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Someone lied to you, sorry. I would place the real number between 1% and 2%, which is of course dependent on RNG. I've gotten 6 in 2018 with mostly TYL:

  • 25 Wyvern flags (1/15/18)
  • 50k FXP (2/18/18)
  • 100 Victor Lima flags (2/25/18)
  • DFAA Mod (3/2/18)
  • 1k Doubloons (3/26/18)
  • Radar mod (4/19/18)

I've also finished the Yamamoto campaign for a few more.

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A 4% chance represents a 96% chance of failure. The chance of success is [1 - (cumulative probability of failure)]%

Assigning 65 TYLs to each of the two supercontainers you got, that's 1 - (0.9665), or approximately 93% for each container. You are spot on.

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12 minutes ago, Ensign_Cthulhu said:

A 4% chance represents a 96% chance of failure. The chance of success is [1 - (cumulative probability of failure)]%

Assigning 65 TYLs to each of the two supercontainers you got, that's 1 - (0.9665), or approximately 93% for each container. You are spot on.

Glad someone did the math. Me lazy.

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1 hour ago, TheLastReaper said:

I call total [edited] on whoever said it was 4% chance of super container.

It's not.  It's 3% (we think). 

That's why I no longer do TYL.  Most SCs are camos nowadays, so even when you get one it's usually Meh.  In the meantime you're getting sod-all on the fails.  Do containers that actually yield results.  They produce SCs too.

 

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1 hour ago, mavfin87 said:

Oh no!  I got less free stuff than I expected for paying nothing!  Whatever shall we do???  

What's funny is I have said that same thing. Its the welfare trap. You get free stuff buts never enough free stuff.

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1 hour ago, awiggin said:

Err, i went 500 containers between SC's, then got a smoke mod....:Smile_teethhappy:

Seriously though, it's RNG at work, stop worrying so much about a rare drop that probably won't be anything good anyway...:Smile_smile:

I got 200 flags once. Not great dragons no it was like 200 sec range flags!

I got sonar once and I dont even play dd. O well.

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18 minutes ago, jags_domain said:

I got sonar once and I dont even play dd. O well.

That's not a DD upgrade, it's a cruiser upgrade.  Don't sell it.

 

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1 hour ago, J30_Reinhardt said:

Glad someone did the math. Me lazy.

What I meant is that the odds are exactly what they should be. Two almost guaranteed successes, two supercontainers. You are getting what you ought to get.

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