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Kochira

Why are IJN DDs so salty: the numbers

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Most of the complaints and arguments of the vocal IJN DD players center around their torpedoes. BBs hate them, DDs want them buffed and names like BBaby and the DD mafia get thrown around. The heart of the issue is how well the torpedoes perform.

To evaluate how well a ship's torpedoes perform I calculated the damage per second based on the average hit rate, taken from the two week stats on warships.today. Torpedo reload booster was not accounted for as its effectiveness depends on the length of the match. All ships were assumed to have the torpedo armament expertise and if available torpedo tubes modification 3.

rpuPxq0.png

The graph above has DPS on the vertical axis and tier on the horizontal. The first jump in capability is at tier 4 with Isokaze, this lines up such that when a new BB player gets up tiered they often face one of the best torpedo boats in the game. I think that this bump is where BB players learn that IJN DDs are their worst enemy, and then assume that this holds true throughout the line. In contrast the DD players feel the big dip that starts a tier 6, the effectiveness of the lower tiers is gone and you are forced to change  to more of a support oriented role. Except IJN DD are bad at that. At least compared to other stealth oriented DDs.

Then what does an IJN DD player have to look forward to? Yugumo and Shimakaze have better torpedo DPS but that isn't enough to make up for their higher tier.

duDxLqW.png

It's a much nicer progression isn't it? HP on the vertical and tier on the horizontal. All IJN BB hulls were included except the arpeggio clones.

The reason IJN DD players are so salty is their main weapon gets worse as they go up the tiers.

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We are devolving back to IJN DD problem when data shows they are just fine.

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So, what does the graph for IJN torpedo salvo alpha damage by tier look like?

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Please excuse my ignorance but, what do the different colours represent?

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The data is also heavily skewed by the fact that the IJN DD player population is FAR more skilled than any of the other DD lines.

The reasons for this are pretty simple:

  1. IJN DD players have been, on average, around longer than any other line than US DDs
  2. IJN DDs have become increasingly difficult for the "average" or "below average" player to enjoy, due to the increasingly uneven performance.  IJN DDs have almost certainly the highest standard deviation of results of any ship line in any nation.  This means that for every "good" game, there's a lot of "bad" ones. Inconsistency is a documented psychological deterrent to enjoyment:  if you do roughly the same thing every time, yet get wildly different results, people quickly become dissatisfied.
  3. By losing new players quickly, the player base very rapidly turns into only those who are either stubborn enough, persistent enough, skilled enough, or just plane ornery enough to continue playing.

 

So it means that all stats for the IJN DDs have to account for this skill discrepancy.  Which, of course can't really be done well given the extreme coarseness of available metrics.  We really need access to better metrics on a large number of subject.  It would be really nice if WG provided detailed metrics via their API. 

Also, here's a quick table of three relevant things for the IJN DDs:   max alpha damage of the most potent torpedo at each level, max per-salvo damage, and DPM potential.

Ship Torpedo Alpha Salvo Alpha DPM
Minekaze

10833

 

64998 92854
Mutsuki 14600 87600 72000
Fubuki 16266 146394 115574
Hatsuharu 16266 97596 77049
Shirahatsuyu 17233 137864 81899
Akatsuki 17233 155097 132940
Kagero 20966 167728 89854
Yugumo 23766 190128 117726
Shimakaze 23766 356490 164470

I ignored the Akizuki, as it's not relevant, and ignored the Torpedo Reload Booster consumable. I did presume that the Yugumo/Shima had the Torpedo Tube Mod 3 installed, as it's virtually universal.

You'll note that while per-torpedo damage does increase noticeably, the per-salvo and DPM are extremely inconsistent.  The T8 and T9 are, in particular, severely lacking.

Go look at the other DDs, where these inconsistencies are nowhere near as bad.

 

As has been said all along, the primary thing that would make IJN DDs both more playable and competitive without being overpowered is a VERY simple change:

  1. Buff their TORPEDO detection distances by 15%
  2. Nerf their torpedo damage by 15%.

This allows them to land more torpedoes, each of which will have lower total damage. That gives players more satisfaction because it leads to more consistent results. But doesn't end up with IJN torps nuking everything all over the place.

 

{edit: I forgot to emphasize that the concealment needing buffing isn't the ship, but the torpedo concealment. This reduces reaction time, allowing for more hits)

Edited by EAnybody
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1 hour ago, NeutralState said:

We are devolving back to IJN DD problem when data shows they are just fine.

Someone just showed you that the stats weren't just fine, and you refuse to even look at the argument. Are you proudest of your 48% win rate in Kagero or your 48% win rate in your Minikaze? Thank you for sharing.

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Ijn Destrors have been murdered.  In this game.....

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20 hours ago, Umikami said:

Someone just showed you that the stats weren't just fine, and you refuse to even look at the argument. Are you proudest of your 48% win rate in Kagero or your 48% win rate in your Minikaze? Thank you for sharing.

My stats teacher told me that, if you ever wanted to fool people, make up a stat with are just numbers on paper and then

  • add your propaganda interpretation to it.
  • Then you present your propaganda made stats in a professional manner leaving no room for counter argument.
  • IF your argue hard enough, long enough, you have others believe in your stats, in turn your propaganda. 

I will use your words as an example. You just threw out his 48% DD win rate, in your propaganda mind you were stat shaming. In my mind you were being a complete and utter fool.  Win rate is not the definition of skill, but in your mind yes it does. The more you tell your self that the more you believe it then you spread it to others. That is by definition propaganda.   Win Rate is

  • The reflection of other 11 guys that play with you to secure the win
  • How lucky your are in MM in getting in said 11 guys to work together to secure the win.
  •  Does not tell you if the win was because of you carrying the team or the team carrying you.
  • and will never be, how a player plays in battle.

So, bottom line what am I trying to convey? Stats are that, numbers, what we have to careful is the interpretation we give to justify our ideas/beliefs. In reality none of you guys are wrong, nor right. But its the way you guys want to read the data given. If it were me, I would take these graphs with a grain of salt and critique the data. Then I would go by the probability of errors. One thing for sure.  its a good discussion starter. Cheers !

 

Edited by Navalpride33
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2 hours ago, Kochira said:

The reason IJN DD players are so salty is their main weapon gets worse as they go up the tiers.

Can we do a graph on the two main arsenal of IJN DD, Concealment,Torp range, and Torp reload for each tier progression? That would be very informative to your argument. Thank you.

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Last I checked their average damage was higher tier for tier (with an exception or two) than most US DDs but you don't hear US DD players whining nonstop.

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59 minutes ago, Lampshade_M1A2 said:

Last I checked their average damage was higher tier for tier (with an exception or two) than most US DDs but you don't hear US DD players whining nonstop.

So, you're implying IJN DD players whine non-stop? I find that very hard to believe. After some of the harsher nerfs were instituted, then sure, there certainly were a slew of complaints, but it's certainly tapered off. I am going to give you the benefit of the doubt, and assume you were exaggerating somewhat....right? :fish_viking:

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The interpretation of the data might differ but the numbers are correct, seeing as IJN torp damage is a known variable along with alpha strike ability and DPM.

If you're going to accuse someone of just "picking numbers" at least prove it. Did your teacher tell you that too?

I use api population data all the time and there is always some fool shouting them down because they don't fit their bias. Inconvenient data is often ignored around here, and goal posts are quickly moved.

You say something like " bb has most top tier plays" (actual real numbers)

You hear back " impossible, every match I'm in has 10 DD per team"

Smfh.

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4 hours ago, Kochira said:

Most of the complaints and arguments of the vocal IJN DD players center around their torpedoes. BBs hate them, DDs want them buffed and names like BBaby and the DD mafia get thrown around. The heart of the issue is how well the torpedoes perform.

To evaluate how well a ship's torpedoes perform I calculated the damage per second based on the average hit rate, taken from the two week stats on warships.today. Torpedo reload booster was not accounted for as its effectiveness depends on the length of the match. All ships were assumed to have the torpedo armament expertise and if available torpedo tubes modification 3.

rpuPxq0.png

The graph above has DPS on the vertical axis and tier on the horizontal. The first jump in capability is at tier 4 with Isokaze, this lines up such that when a new BB player gets up tiered they often face one of the best torpedo boats in the game. I think that this bump is where BB players learn that IJN DDs are their worst enemy, and then assume that this holds true throughout the line. In contrast the DD players feel the big dip that starts a tier 6, the effectiveness of the lower tiers is gone and you are forced to change  to more of a support oriented role. Except IJN DD are bad at that. At least compared to other stealth oriented DDs.

Then what does an IJN DD player have to look forward to? Yugumo and Shimakaze have better torpedo DPS but that isn't enough to make up for their higher tier.

duDxLqW.png

It's a much nicer progression isn't it? HP on the vertical and tier on the horizontal. All IJN BB hulls were included except the arpeggio clones.

The reason IJN DD players are so salty is their main weapon gets worse as they go up the tiers.

Comparing apples to Oranges. 

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3 hours ago, EAnybody said:

The data is also heavily skewed by the fact that the IJN DD player population is FAR more skilled than any of the other DD lines.

The reasons for this are pretty simple:

  1. IJN DD players have been, on average, around longer than any other line than US DDs
  2. IJN DDs have become increasingly difficult for the "average" or "below average" player to enjoy, due to the increasingly uneven performance.  IJN DDs have almost certainly the highest standard deviation of results of any ship line in any nation.  This means that for every "good" game, there's a lot of "bad" ones. Inconsistency is a documented psychological deterrent to enjoyment:  if you do roughly the same thing every time, yet get wildly different results, people quickly become dissatisfied.
  3. By losing new players quickly, the player base very rapidly turns into only those who are either stubborn enough, persistent enough, skilled enough, or just plane ornery enough to continue playing.

 

So it means that all stats for the IJN DDs have to account for this skill discrepancy.  Which, of course can't really be done well given the extreme coarseness of available metrics.  We really need access to better metrics on a large number of subject.  It would be really nice if WG provided detailed metrics via their API. 

Also, here's a quick table of three relevant things for the IJN DDs:   max alpha damage of the most potent torpedo at each level, max per-salvo damage, and DPM potential.

Ship Torpedo Alpha Salvo Alpha DPM
Minekaze

10833

 

64998 92854
Mutsuki 14600 87600 72000
Fubuki 16266 146394 115574
Hatsuharu 16266 97596 77049
Shirahatsuyu 17233 137864 81899
Akatsuki 17233 155097 132940
Kagero 20966 167728 89854
Yugumo 23766 190128 117726
Shimakaze 23766 356490 164470

I ignored the Akizuki, as it's not relevant, and ignored the Torpedo Reload Booster consumable. I did presume that the Yugumo/Shima had the Torpedo Tube Mod 3 installed, as it's virtually universal.

You'll note that while per-torpedo damage does increase noticeably, the per-salvo and DPM are extremely inconsistent.  The T8 and T9 are, in particular, severely lacking.

Go look at the other DDs, where these inconsistencies are nowhere near as bad.

 

As has been said all along, the primary thing that would make IJN DDs both more playable and competitive without being overpowered is a VERY simple change:

  1. Buff their detection distances by 15%
  2. Nerf their torpedo damage by 15%.

This allows them to land more torpedoes, each of which will have lower total damage. That gives players more satisfaction because it leads to more consistent results. But doesn't end up with IJN torps nuking everything all over the place.

Finally, commonsense is strong in this one :cap_like:

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2 hours ago, Umikami said:

Someone just showed you that the stats weren't just fine, and you refuse to even look at the argument. Are you proudest of your 48% win rate in Kagero or your 48% win rate in your Minikaze? Thank you for sharing.

Truth, or lack thereof in a statement or a claim, doesn't depend on qualifications of those making such claim. 

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3 hours ago, Navalpride33 said:

  Win Rate is

  • The reflection of other 11 guys that play with you to secure the win
  • How lucky your are in MM in getting in said 11 guys to work together to secure the win.
  •  Does not tell you if the win was because of you carrying the team or the team carrying you.
  • and will never be, how a player plays in battle.

 

Hahahahhaaaa.

Oh man.

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I think the IJN DD nerfs where quite justified. How OP the kamikaze R is considered, is proof of this to me.

You're also not factoring in salvo density, torpedo speed, or stealth fired torpedo range. These attributes greatly alter the effective DPM of each ship. There is also the fact that BBs and most cruisers get bigger and turn worse as tiers go up, also altering the effective damage of these ships. These statistics also discount the thin low profiles and high alpha guns of IJN DDs. They can't win a fair gunfight, but they are exploitable in an unfair one.

Lets also not forget too: Shimakaze, and all torpedoes, are getting buffed. 

There is a large group of very loud and biased IJN DD fans out there.

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1 hour ago, X15 said:

There is also the fact that BBs and most cruisers get bigger and turn worse as tiers go up, also altering the effective damage of these ships.

This is fairly common for all ship types in game, so is it really a point to be made?

Gearing: 640m

Benson: 570m

Z-52: 700m

Z-23: 680m

 

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I don't really care.  I see Japanese DD's, I shoot them.  I see torps, I use WASD hax.

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2 hours ago, X15 said:

I think the IJN DD nerfs where quite justified. How OP the kamikaze R is considered, is proof of this to me.

You're also not factoring in salvo density, torpedo speed, or stealth fired torpedo range. These attributes greatly alter the effective DPM of each ship. There is also the fact that BBs and most cruisers get bigger and turn worse as tiers go up, also altering the effective damage of these ships. These statistics also discount the thin low profiles and high alpha guns of IJN DDs. They can't win a fair gunfight, but they are exploitable in an unfair one.

Lets also not forget too: Shimakaze, and all torpedoes, are getting buffed. 

There is a large group of very loud and biased IJN DD fans out there.

 I say let @Kochira, post a graph on the two main armaments for IJN DD

  • Concealment starting at tier 4
  1. By the numbers how much concealment  each IJN DD has going up the tier starting from tier 4
  • Torpedoes  starting at tier 4
  1. Torp range
  2. Torp reloads
  3. re post Torp DMG with 1 and 2.
  • My argument, there's the lack of variety of torp DD in the high tiers compared to the same choice of gun DDs starting say tier 8-10 of any nation ( IJN DDs being the weakest gun DDs in the game, only ships that torp are from LONG distances are available).
  • in the upper tiers, here is the unjustified unbalanced,
  1. THere are more BBs with hydro
  2. THere are more BB with radar
  3. BBs are more agile, justifying a over 2 min torp reload time only makes BB drivers in the above tiers, over matched/immune to torp damage, as a result BB drivers have a better survivability.
  4. lets not mention the cruisers with Hydro, Radar.

Bottom line, If you want to contribute in the high tiers to a win with the fleet then go BB/cruisers our a hybrid BB(battle cruiser)that has either hydro or torps. There is no viable torp DD treat variety in the upper tiers to justify 7 radar/hydro ships to hunt down slim chance of a torp DD since must will be Gunboats from America or other nation due to the lack of variety between Gun DDs vs Torp DDs. IF Kochira post the above graph maybe we can finally see what IJN DD drivers a truly salty about. Cheers nice discussion starter

Edited by Navalpride33
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7 hours ago, EAnybody said:

The data is also heavily skewed by the fact that the IJN DD player population is FAR more skilled than any of the other DD lines.

This statement needs some support.

How are you measuring "skill"? 

What empirical data supports it? 

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7 hours ago, Umikami said:

Someone just showed you that the stats weren't just fine, and you refuse to even look at the argument. Are you proudest of your 48% win rate in Kagero or your 48% win rate in your Minikaze? Thank you for sharing.

The data's worthless, every ship line has a similar dip in mid tier. That is by design, consciously. 48% is average back then. Average performance of the entire IJN DD line is on par with the rest. So they are fine.

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What a part of IJN DD's have the potential to be the most broken, overpowered class in the game don't you guys get? Did you play the game at release? Cause I did. Going back to Shima walls is *not* a good idea. The OP is missing the key point about IJN DD's: they are not a *quantity* class, they are, in theory, supposed to be a *QUALITY* class. If you are firing your torps on cooldown, most of the time, you are doing it wrong. Snipers aren't about rapid fire. You want a machine gun play CL's. You want machine gun esq torps, play RU DD's (Tashk is disturbing at times).

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6 hours ago, Navalpride33 said:

My stats teacher told me that, if you ever wanted to fool people, make up a stat with are just numbers on paper and then

  • add your propaganda interpretation to it.
  • Then you present your propaganda made stats in a professional manner leaving no room for counter argument.
  • IF your argue hard enough, long enough, you have others believe in your stats, in turn your propaganda. 

I will use your words as an example. You just threw out his 48% DD win rate, in your propaganda mind you were stat shaming. In my mind you were being a complete and utter fool.  Win rate is not the definition of skill, but in your mind yes it does. The more you tell your self that the more you believe it then you spread it to others. That is by definition propaganda.   Win Rate is

  • The reflection of other 11 guys that play with you to secure the win
  • How lucky your are in MM in getting in said 11 guys to work together to secure the win.
  •  Does not tell you if the win was because of you carrying the team or the team carrying you.
  • and will never be, how a player plays in battle.

So, bottom line what am I trying to convey? Stats are that, numbers, what we have to careful is the interpretation we give to justify our ideas/beliefs. In reality none of you guys are wrong, nor right. But its the way you guys want to read the data given. If it were me, I would take these graphs with a grain of salt and critique the data. Then I would go by the probability of errors. One thing for sure.  its a good discussion starter. Cheers !

 

U wat mate? Sounds like the points you are trying to make are in the same vein that you accused Umi of making.

3 hours ago, MountainManxDan said:

Hahahahhaaaa.

Oh man.

My thoughts exactly. Just so you know your purple stats are completely RNG..... maybe you should play the lottery then?:cap_book:

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