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SnipeySnipes

Using Stats to Your Advantage: Reading the Available Data

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As with many games these days’ statistics have become an integral part of the gaming experience. This is no different in World of Warship. The statistics available to the player and community as a whole can be overwhelming. So how do you sort through them? What do they mean? Can they really tell if a player is a good player or bad player? In this article, I hope to answer every one of those questions as well as go into a bit more detail on reading some of the stats that are displayed on the many sites and apps.

 

In my previous article, I analyzed existing raw data using statistical methods and formulas – this article will do none of that. Other individuals have created their own formulas, as well as extracted data Wargaming to highlight certain attributes of a player. Though many of us have probably seen these numbers, here are just a few of the examples: Battles (played), Victories, Defeats, (battles) Survived, Frags, Average Damage Dealt, Average Win Rate, etc. These are examples of metrics derived from the raw data, if not raw data themselves. For instance, Victories, is raw data, but Win Rate is Wins divided by total battles played – an example of a metric derived from raw data. The other type of metric is a calculated metric. Examples of this would be the Warships Today Rating (WTR) from warships.today and wowstats.org. These are calculated through formulas that incorporate multiple other metrics, usually those derived from raw data. The reason for this is to make it easier to compare a single player to the player population. Hence, the ‘Unicum’ scale.[1]

Sorting Through the Data

One of the reasons scales, such as the WTR, has been created is to help the stat ‘novice’ identify good players, or bad players, and to see where they sit in the grand scheme, without having the knowledge of understanding the individual metrics as a whole. Add some color and viola, instant idea of how good a player is. This doesn’t tell the whole story however. As a comparative example, take Player A and Player B. Both have a WTR of 1500 in their Atlantas (if you’ve ever played one; that is no small feat). By definition, that makes them Unicum. However, Player A only has 2 battles, and Player B has over 200 in that ship. So who’s the better player? By rating alone, they are equal, but if we take into consideration that extra metric of battles played, chances are Player B is much better. This has to do with the law of large numbers[2]. In this particular instance, the more battles a player has the more likely we are to have a good representation of how skilled they really are. Keep in mind too, players tend to get better over time so after their rating stabilizes, it will likely creep higher over time. Looking at this one extra piece of information can help you determine a perceived good player from a true good player, or even bad.

Making a Player Determination

In my opinion, and experience, it takes looking at more than one piece of information to determine whether or not a player is good or bad. It can’t be done with just WTR alone. Some other ‘extra’ stats that are good to look at when trying to make a determination of a player might include total battles played, top ship tier, survival rate, average damage done, tiers they usually play, and ship class they usually play. The significance of each of these is outline below.

  • Total Battles Played – A new player typically will not be very good, this can be made evident by their total battles. However, if they have very few battles, but have high ratings it may be a second account
  • Top Ship Tier[3] – Most players don’t get the hang of the game until tier 4 or 5 depending on how quickly they progress. So don’t be surprised to ‘bad’ players that only have a tier 4 or 5 as their top ship.
  • Survival Rate – You Only Live Once; bad players will typically have a poor survival rate. However, it’s worth mentioning that aggressive players do as well. When considering Survival Rate, look at their average damage. An overly aggressive player with poor survival could be considered bad with below average damage in that ship.
  • Average Damage Done – A key factor in most metrics as it correlates well with both survival and win rate. Above average damage is typically a good indicator of a decent player, particularly if they have more than 30 battles in that ship.
  • Tiers they Play – One would expect that the higher the tier an individual plays, the higher their average damage potential. A low average tier but high average damage will indicated both a good player and likely a seal clubber.
  • Ship Type they Play – Do they stick to just one or two classes or try to play them all? This is more of a point to consider when judging a player outside their typical class. A player might have a good WTR and play a lot of destroyers, but not be very good in battleships.
  • Overall Progression – Is the player actually getting ‘better’ or are their stat values staying about the same? This is a good trend to look at. Though everyone has their ups and downs, an overall upward trend is a valid indicator of a good player. It shows that they learn from their mistakes and have made adjustments in their play style. I’d rather have a player willing to learn and improve than one who’s a little too full of themselves.

 

Applying This New Knowledge

As an individual player, you can use this information to determine whether or not to focus a player, or let them be for now. The better player will usually be the bigger threat whereas the lesser player, though still capable of doing damage, is less likely to do as much as quickly as the better player. As a clan member, particularly one that deals with recruitment and member applications, this new knowledge will make you a better judge of a player. Most importantly, you can be a better judge of their future capabilities and where they may fit in a division or competitively. Further, in competitive or division play, this information can be used to accurately determine the biggest threats and focus them as they are spotted.

Conclusion

There is a lot of information out there to sift through but hopefully I’ve pointed out some of the more important pieces and what they meant. Ultimately, it’s up to the individual reading them to interpret the data in front of them to make their decision. Tools that I use frequently both to help myself find areas of improvement as well as to make determinations of other players are Warships.Today, World of Warships Stats, and WoWReplays Matchmaking Monitor (now in Aslains). The Matchmaking monitor is great for player info on a per battle instance. I would strongly recommend having dual monitors to use this effectively, though not necessary, it really helps. I hope this new and extra information is useful and happy sailing!

[1] The WTR “Unicum” Rating Scale – https://na.warships.today/help/warships_today_rating

[2] The Law of Large Numbers is a principle in statistics, particularly probability, where the larger the sample that you have, the more likely the actual mean (i.e. a player’s WTR) is to be equal to the expected mean (a ‘true’ representation of their skill).

[3] Top ship tier should be measured by their top tech tree ship, or non-premium or reward ship.

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Don't worry too much about comparing yourself to others. Just look at your own trend lines. If they are going up, even slightly, then you are getting better and have little to be concerned about. If you see a precipitous fall though you need to assess what might have happened. If they have plateaued then you may have gotten as good as you will get. However, you also might still be able to improve if you look at how the "exerts" play and learn from them.

Be aware though that "unicums" who only play in divisions with voice chat have an inherent advantage. This is especially true if one has spent hours and hours becoming an expert with a CV. Because good CV play requires skill above that of the other vessels in the game a really good CV player can pretty much win games single-handily.

Speaking of the law of large numbers. I used to do an experiment in my introductory science course where I had the students (around 200 in a lecture) estimate the length of something a few meters long in centimeters. Without exception, the average was only two or three centimeters off from the actual value. 

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1 hour ago, SnipeySnipes said:

Can they really tell if a player is a good player or bad player?

Well they CAN if you look at what ship class you do well in and which you do not very well at, right?

But it's tricky because you have to account for a learning curve you have for each ship type. This takes time, and I am talking 100s of battles in each.  You could suck at DDs early on and ace it as a CA or BB player later.

Also keep in mind that not all of us out here are stat-hounds. Some of us are history-minded and collectors and will keep playing ships we do not do well at, just for the challenge and interest of it in doing so. Find ships you enjoy playing and damn the torpedoes I say!

[Whomever identifies who said, historically, "damn the torpedoes!" gets a +1 from me]

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Don't go down that road man, that way lies the dark side. Eventually you'll start disregarding people based on their stats, giving up because of team stats, and worrying about colors a-la WN8. It's not worth it, get out while you still can.

Edit: And Farragut said it.

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3 hours ago, Stauffenberg44 said:

Well they CAN if you look at what ship class you do well in and which you do not very well at, right?

But it's tricky because you have to account for a learning curve you have for each ship type. This takes time, and I am talking 100s of battles in each.  You could suck at DDs early on and ace it as a CA or BB player later.

Also keep in mind that not all of us out here are stat-hounds. Some of us are history-minded and collectors and will keep playing ships we do not do well at, just for the challenge and interest of it in doing so. Find ships you enjoy playing and damn the torpedoes I say!

[Whomever identifies who said, historically, "damn the torpedoes!" gets a +1 from me]

David Farragut my friend, of Civil War fame of course.

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6 hours ago, monpetitloup said:

David Farragut my friend, of Civil War fame of course.

Yes of course +1.

Wasn't he strapped to the mast. or was that Ulysses? :cap_cool:

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23 minutes ago, Stauffenberg44 said:

Yes of course +1.

Wasn't he strapped to the mast. or was that Ulysses? :cap_cool:

He was indeed, note the depiction in this recruiting poster:

image.png.3822b1c9c6ecda331448b451bb72f3e9.png

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On 3/27/2018 at 1:30 AM, Landsraad said:

Don't go down that road man, that way lies the dark side. Eventually you'll start disregarding people based on their stats, giving up because of team stats, and worrying about colors a-la WN8. It's not worth it, get out while you still can.

Edit: And Farragut said it.

Many CV players look up their opposition and make assumptions based upon what they find. The best CV player I know and play with told me that he assumes the red CV is good until he proves otherwise. Which happens often and usually quite quickly. 

I briefly experimented with one of the matchmaking monitor programs and found it worse than useless. You can see who is playing well and making a difference in the game. Kill them. I don’t care what color their stats are. And assuming that the potato won’t accidentally do something unexpected can get you killed. 

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I agree, I assume other players are far better than I and try to the best of my ability to defend myself and my team.

You win some and lose some. I still think there are still many nice people out there to play warships.

A great player to me, is someone who really respects others no matter how bad or good they are in playing the game.

I don't see many losers say gg (good game) or ggwp (good game well played) when they lose.

I always say gg or ggwp at the end of the game no matter what.

 

Anyways, I started on another server since alpha testing, however the server does not exist now

so after playing in all servers have decided to start all over here.

 

BZ.

1030473868.png

 

Edited by Ah_Jae
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Great write-up.  Recommended reading for everyone who plays the game.

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Beta Testers, In AlfaTesters
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nicely summed up. when ever some one mentions using stats as a means to bash others, i usually liken it to a knife or a gun. both can be used to hurt others, but used correctly, both can be very useful tools as well. stats are the same. we can use them to bash others, but thats missing the point of their usefulness. 

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I love stats, and to be honest, I'm a bit of a numbers junkie when it comes to this stuff. I'll use anything I can (except cheats :Smile_Default: ) to give me an edge and better my understanding of the game.

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