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Soshi_Sone

Clan Divisions and WR

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This is a food for thought post.  First assumption is MM is truly random in terms of WG implementation.  Under normal circumstances, given a 12 player per side match, everyone is equally likely to be distributed on either team.  However, a division is GUARANTEED to be on the same team.  A three ship division makes up 25% of one team's slots that would otherwise be available for a solo player.

The likelihood of being on a team is no longer 50/50 (i.e., 12/24), it is now 60/40.  That is, a solo player has a 60% chance of being on the team without the division, and 40% chance of being on the team with the division.

If the division is a unicum clan then you will find yourself facing the unicum clan 60% of the time.  Suffice to say, unless countered by another clan or other players of equal ability, you will be on the proverbial "potato" team 60% of the time. Even if you are unicum player yourself, all else being equal, you have to be better than THREE of your kind.

If clan is a potato clan, then the opposite is true.  In this case you do not want to be on the clan team, and therefore you only have a 40% chance of getting screwed by MM.

So....pay attention to what you see as you play match after match.  If you continue to see the same unicum clan divisioned within your tier range then you are playing uphill.  If you don't want the challenge, either take a break...drop to a different tier range...or, bring your own unicum clan to the fight.

You see, the "take a break"  or going seal clubbing is more than just to calm you down.  It has a sound statistical basis.  A string of bad games might be more than just random luck dealing you the short side of the MM stick.  It might be due to powerful divisions at work in your tier range.  And a string of good games might be due to some potato divisions at work in your tier range.

Personally, I've noticed this is a factor late at night when the queue distribution is thin.  You will often see the same players, especially at the rather sparse high tiers.  If a unicum clan is on the prowl...and you're solo...it's going to be a rough night.  

 

 

 

 

Edited by Soshi_Sone
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Mathematically very solid.  

The solution is either teaming up or counter picking them. If they're Midway/Gearing/Gearing then Des Moines is looking pretty good.  If you end up on their team you're still in a good ship, if you're not then you can make their life miserable.

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Something to add to the equation is that as a Solo, you are MM filler and you are more likely to be up tiered then divisions are.  When divisions are slotted in by MM, there are gaps that need to be filled - Solos are slotted in to complete a match - especially cruisers and DDs.  Divisions not only get the advantage of coordination, but also in a sense get preferential match making.

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Matchermaker seems to generally try to roughly match divisions on each side, so I don't think it's quite as bad as you say.  The real trouble is when matchmaker gives THEM a division from a Hurricane clan and gives you three guys that met in the previous battle and decided to queue together again.

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Just now, Brhinosaurus said:

Matchermaker seems to generally try to roughly match divisions on each side, so I don't think it's quite as bad as you say.  The real trouble is when matchmaker gives THEM a division from a Hurricane clan and gives you three guys that met in the previous battle and decided to queue together again.

Or in one memorable instance, two divisions from the same Hurricane clan and another division from a different Hurricane clan vs three divisions of people who didn't understand the division system.

The team chat on our team was hilarious the first 3 minutes of the battle and all chat was hilarious between 3 and 7 minutes when the game ended.

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Just posted a thread regarding matchmaker here:

Might be a relevant/interesting read for you.

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Thanks Soshi I have contemplated this many times and wonder about the sync dropping aspect. How does this affect the overall MM "Balance"

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2 minutes ago, CLUCH_CARGO said:

Thanks Soshi I have contemplated this many times and wonder about the sync dropping aspect. How does this affect the overall MM "Balance"

If you're trying just to raise your win rate the last thing you want to is sync drop with another excellent division. Odds are you will end up on opposite teams. That's not going to help your win rate.  The ideal situation is your div is the only good div and the other divs in MM are as bad as possible.

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Competent Divisions have a lot of sway.  You can do things with a tightly played, coordinated, voice-comm Division that you would rarely be able to get with even good Random players.  Most people don't look in the Team Chat, even if you type what you intend to do.

Des Moines: "Radar for A in 35 seconds"

Most won't see that for a variety of reasons and that Radar may very well end up failing because no focus fire effort will arise from it.  Simple stuff like that doesn't happen enough with Randoms.

 

But a Division?

Division Des Moines: "Radar for A in 35 seconds, I'll light up that smoked up Mino and Shima."

Division Grozovoi: "Cool, swinging guns over in a few and will be ready."

Division Montana: "... Okay, my guns should be reloaded before that, I'll be ready."

DM Pops Radar

Reds in smoke die a horrible, quick, violent death.

 

With Randoms:

DM pops Radar to the cap, spots critical targets, but everyone keeps shooting at the Yamato 17-19km away instead the entire DM Radar duration.

 

The last nice thing with a competent division is that it means 2-3 Potatoes were prevented from being on the team.

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6 minutes ago, Grizley said:

Or in one memorable instance, two divisions from the same Hurricane clan and another division from a different Hurricane clan vs three divisions of people who didn't understand the division system.

The team chat on our team was hilarious the first 3 minutes of the battle and all chat was hilarious between 3 and 7 minutes when the game ended.

I know we don't name and shame but I was in a random game where a certain clan from south of the equator sync dropped 3 two-ship divisions onto the red team and proceed to get utterly wrecked.  So you never know.

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1 minute ago, Grizley said:

If you're trying just to raise your win rate the last thing you want to is sync drop with another excellent division. Odds are you will end up on opposite teams. That's not going to help your win rate.  The ideal situation is your div is the only good div and the other divs in MM are as bad as possible.

I understand this but 7 sync dropping solo players  is not a division. Comms make the difference. Not skill. with 7 players in one game the "Balance" is skewed and  wins can be determined by the sync drop.

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2 minutes ago, CLUCH_CARGO said:

I understand this but 7 sync dropping solo players  is not a division. Comms make the difference. Not skill. with 7 players in one game the "Balance" is skewed and  wins can be determined by the sync drop.

Again, not helpful.

You'll end up 3 on one team 4 on the other.  You can tilt the odds slightly by picking different ship types and different nations but that's not reliable.  At best you have a 50/50 shot per person that they end up on the same team, much worse if you choose poorly like 7 Gearing.

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You are thinking these sync dropping players are going play by the rules.  4/3 split between two teams The 4 are in communication with the 3 impossible to prove manipulation takes place. the game become 15 v 9. Cheaters cheat. hard to prove easy to enact/ suspect. 

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Just another reason why divisions don't belong in random.....it's bad enough with the player base this game has, without adding blowout divisions to it....

What they should have done is format team battles for small teams 3-4 max and let players get their division on that way.......far too late for that to happen now though.:Smile_sceptic:

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18 minutes ago, CLUCH_CARGO said:

You are thinking these sync dropping players are going play by the rules.  4/3 split between two teams The 4 are in communication with the 3 impossible to prove manipulation takes place. the game become 15 v 9. Cheaters cheat. hard to prove easy to enact/ suspect. 

 

I would be shocked to learn there was any significant number of players doing anything like that. It's not out of some optimistically naive view of human nature, quite the opposite. Find me  a group of players that is so dedicated to cheating their win rate that they're willing to sync drop hours and hours a day trying to get the boosted players all on one side and the feeder players all on the other.

It might happen in small doses with CVs, we've seen pretty clear indication that there are some players who will queue up both their main account and a junk account as say T8 CVs then just afk on the junk account letting even terrible CV players sport 70% win rates "solo".  That just isn't practical for any other ship type, by the time you're talking enough people to swing the MM the odds of the right people showing up on the right team is just too low.

If you want to catch people pulling this, look at CVs in ranked.  That's where it's most likely. Though there has been convincing evidence of people doing it in randumbs too.

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2 minutes ago, Grizley said:

 

I would be shocked to learn there was any significant number of players doing anything like that. It's not out of some optimistically naive view of human nature, quite the opposite. Find me  a group of players that is so dedicated to cheating their win rate that they're willing to sync drop hours and hours a day trying to get the boosted players all on one side and the feeder players all on the other.

It might happen in small doses with CVs, we've seen pretty clear indication that there are some players who will queue up both their main account and a junk account as say T8 CVs then just afk on the junk account letting even terrible CV players sport 70% win rates "solo".  That just isn't practical for any other ship type, by the time you're talking enough people to swing the MM the odds of the right people showing up on the right team is just too low.

If you want to catch people pulling this, look at CVs in ranked.  That's where it's most likely. Though there has been convincing evidence of people doing it in randumbs too.

The numbers are there the player base has many people who actively pad their stats. The big picture is and always will be Cheater's Cheat. In today's terms  Anonymity provides the inroads.

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28 minutes ago, CLUCH_CARGO said:

You are thinking these sync dropping players are going play by the rules.  4/3 split between two teams The 4 are in communication with the 3 impossible to prove manipulation takes place. the game become 15 v 9. Cheaters cheat. hard to prove easy to enact/ suspect. 

Yeah, most I know wouldn't do that. When my clan/group sync drops its usually the exact opposite. Plenty of razzing on discord. It's fun to gun down the guys you play with every once in a while.

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1 hour ago, Soshi_Sone said:

This is a food for thought post.  First assumption is MM is truly random in terms of WG implementation.  Under normal circumstances, given a 12 player per side match, everyone is equally likely to be distributed on either team.  However, a division is GUARANTEED to be on the same team.  A three ship division makes up 25% of one team's slots that would otherwise be available for a solo player.

The likelihood of being on a team is no longer 50/50 (i.e., 12/24), it is now 60/40.  That is, a solo player has a 60% chance of being on the team without the division, and 40% chance of being on the team with the division.

If the division is a unicum clan then you will find yourself facing the unicum clan 60% of the time.  Suffice to say, unless countered by another clan or other players of equal ability, you will be on the proverbial "potato" team 60% of the time. Even if you are unicum player yourself, all else being equal, you have to be better than THREE of your kind.

If clan is a potato clan, then the opposite is true.  In this case you do not want to be on the clan team, and therefore you only have a 40% chance of getting screwed by MM.

So....pay attention to what you see as you play match after match.  If you continue to see the same unicum clan divisioned within your tier range then you are playing uphill.  If you don't want the challenge, either take a break...drop to a different tier range...or, bring your own unicum clan to the fight.

You see, the "take a break"  or going seal clubbing is more than just to calm you down.  It has a sound statistical basis.  A string of bad games might be more than just random luck dealing you the short side of the MM stick.  It might be due to powerful divisions at work in your tier range.  And a string of good games might be due to some potato divisions at work in your tier range.

Personally, I've noticed this is a factor late at night when the queue distribution is thin.  You will often see the same players, especially at the rather sparse high tiers.  If a unicum clan is on the prowl...and you're solo...it's going to be a rough night.  

 

 

 

 

There has been a noticeable uptick in unicum divisions in the 8 - 10 tier where I usually play. I see many teams and a few names with purple tags who I saw in the KoTS tournament. Sometimes I'm better than they are both on my team and not and I have a 51% WR and only ever solo. Hmm...

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1 minute ago, Sou1forge said:

Yeah, most I know wouldn't do that. When my clan/group sync drops its usually the exact opposite. Plenty of razzing on discord. It's fun to gun down the guys you play with every once in a while.

Yes my clan does this for the bragging rights but some of the anyominity is removed by the clan tag. It is the solo "friends" that do the stat padding this way. Ever see the movie Strangers on a Train?

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53 minutes ago, CLUCH_CARGO said:

The numbers are there the player base has many people who actively pad their stats. The big picture is and always will be Cheater's Cheat. In today's terms  Anonymity provides the inroads.

Sure, but people padding stats play Fujin or Clemson or similar 8000 times. They don't get 6 friends to help them try to rig matches.

You have to remember humans are as a rule incredibly lazy. The path of least resistance is nearly always the way people take.

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52 minutes ago, w4spl3g said:

There has been a noticeable uptick in unicum divisions in the 8 - 10 tier where I usually play. I see many teams and a few names with purple tags who I saw in the KoTS tournament. Sometimes I'm better than they are both on my team and not and I have a 51% WR and only ever solo. Hmm...

 

I'm going to stop you there.

 

You think you're better.  That's an important distinction.

Second, you're trying to judge on the basis of one game that you think you're better.  Even among very good players they have good games and bad games. If they happen to have a bad game in the same game you have a good game you're trying to say you're the better player. That isn't an accurate belief.

If you feel that you're able to perform at that level apply to one of the clans. If none will take you then start your own and prove yourself.

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1 hour ago, Sou1forge said:

Yeah, most I know wouldn't do that. When my clan/group sync drops its usually the exact opposite. Plenty of razzing on discord. It's fun to gun down the guys you play with every once in a while.

Generally speaking that's what happens for us too.  In team chat it's something like "focus the xxxxx out of their Missouri, he's good".  Meanwhile you're in voice telling him you're going to A1 for a duel while trying to get a spot on them so your team can wreck them.

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3 hours ago, Grizley said:

 

I'm going to stop you there.

 

You think you're better.  That's an important distinction.

Second, you're trying to judge on the basis of one game that you think you're better.  Even among very good players they have good games and bad games. If they happen to have a bad game in the same game you have a good game you're trying to say you're the better player. That isn't an accurate belief.

If you feel that you're able to perform at that level apply to one of the clans. If none will take you then start your own and prove yourself.

I'm the leader of a 40 man clan. I don't give 2 [edited] about "Clan Wars" or tournaments. My point was I don't need other people to pad my stats and in conjunction with the thread about the MM patents it seems that's how the majority get their purple tags anyway. Feel free to put your e-peen back in your pants.

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18 minutes ago, w4spl3g said:

I'm the leader of a 40 man clan. I don't give 2 [edited] about "Clan Wars" or tournaments. My point was I don't need other people to pad my stats and in conjunction with the thread about the MM patents it seems that's how the majority get their purple tags anyway. Feel free to put your e-peen back in your pants.

It sounds like a lot of post hoc justification for shame that you feel over your stats.

"I'm really really good, despite my stats.  Therefor everyone who has better stats than me is a cheater".  That's roughly what your posts sums to.  If that's not the message that you were attempting to get across then you might want to refine your statements.

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