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TL_Warlord_Roff

Essay: Warships, Baseball, E-Sports and Stats

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hopefully the title got your attention.

Hi, it's the "Old Guy" again.. (cue Mike Mayers "middle age man" skit)

Baseball, that classic american game. A game that fosters team work, yet allows the individual to stand out from the crowd.  The greats, Willie Mays, Babe Ruth, and many many more.  And every new season brings a new crop of hero's of the diamond.   In it's most basic form, it's 9 man teams... You have your field position, and everybody gets to bat.. even the bad batters.   Babe Ruth wasn't that good of a batter, but when he did connect...yea, he was called the home run king for a reason.  But the reality was he could be horribly inconsistent from season to season.   Baseball is a game of making errors and managing errors..the less then perfect plays and over coming them to win.  Making less mistakes and errors then the other team.  Sound familiar?  It should!  The drama during a good game is real.  No one comes up to the plate and swats it out of the park every time.  A batting average of .400 is out standing.  That 400 times you HIT the ball out of 1,000 times at bat.   The ball may have gone foul, or got got caught.. but then again your doing pretty good to even hit a baseball moving at 50 to 90 MPH with a stick,  thats coming at you on a not entirely predictable path.   Everything is inconsistent.  Why doesn't baseball use a paddle type bat ala cricket, instead of a round bat?  The answer is so its that much more difficult for the batter to control where the ball goes after they hit it!   But that's crazy!  If your reading this you play world of warships.  Sound kinda familiar?

Kinda sound like playing world of warships in some ways yes?  They are both games.  They are both played by teams.  The difference is baseball teams as a general rule are not pick up groups!   Is it any wonder that match performance can be so inconsistent?    

Whats the big difference between a team of pro ball players and the team fielded by say your local community college?  Well first, the pro's get a pay check for what they do.  This is how they earn their living.     The other difference is when things go badly the pro team is a lot less likely to be rattled by it.  They cannot allow themselves to be rattled by bad plays or bad innings.  Or player injuries, ..or arguments with the referee's..  They're pro's and they get paid to be there, its their job    But they almost all started on a small team some where and got spotted by a pro scout.  Got recruited, tried out for the team and made the grade and got signed.

What gets a player signed?  Is it stats?  The answer is partially.  Thats why baseball has farm teams.. to develop potential first string players.  Stats are important in baseball.  They're part of the strategy of a team play.  Do you put your poor batters in at the beginning of the rotation?  Do you intersperse them and mix them with your good batters?  Or your bunters who's job is to just get on base?  The answers is "depends" where your playing, who your playing, what team members are available and good to go for the game.  Once your on a team, stats are not what's important.    Your ability to work with the other talent, the coaching staff, the team manager, oh, and lets not forget the public, the sporting press, and the sponsors.    You see sports talking head shows, and you have player X who's out spoken, rude, trash talks...  Every year there is someone who wants to push the boundaries of whats acceptable...and every year there are players who get delegated to the bench for the season because they do.  Bad relations with the press and the public can kill a pro career instantly.   Players have been dismissed from a team for conduct.  The sport has an image that those involved want to keep intact and unharmed.  And that means when you push to hard, you get chucked!

 

So whats this got to do with Warships players?

   We're not pro players.... ummm yet.. maybe we'll have that in a few years.  It is up to we players to promote and make it happen.  Yes Wargaming.net can do a lot of setup and ground work, but the players have to to step forward and be willing to make the sacrifices in their lives to make it happen.  Travel, maintaining a presentable appearance, being personable, approachable.   Being upbeat about the sport and more.  Glad handing with the press and media, sponsors, fans.. there will be fans.  Ask any youtube or twitch streamer about fans.   They are real, and anyone seriously considering running a "pro" team had better make sure they get along with the fans, because your popularity with the fans is going to determine just how lucrative a deal you get from sponsors.. because sponsorship is what going to pay for the sport!  Fans wont be buying tickets to watch you play for the most part.. the majority of a season will not be in front of a physically present audience.  Perception is whats going to put money in pockets.  Also a big thing about fans, and I have seen both you tube and twitch streamers run smack into this particular thing.   Your going to have to deal with jerks.  Folks that get their feelings of self worth at your expense.  Wannabe's!  and more.  And you'll need to get it that you must handle it gracefully.  They'll be times when its totally appropriate to say to someone publicly "Sir, your wasting my time, and everyone else's.  I'm done with you.  Good day."  and yes you will need to say it in such stilted formal terms because your a pro player and what ever you say has to be ok with the sponsors.  You are no longer a private person.  Your one of the "stars" and you will act appropriately or you will not get to stay a "star"!

We have some examples in our community

Not everyone is a Jim Searling, and even he has been known to come back and apologize and admit he was wrong, and when he does, he makes a PRODUCTION of it...pretty impressive really!  Not everyone is a Mighty Jingles, or an IChase, or a No Zoup for You, or Urpeacekeeper.. and the list goes on.   They all have differing styles.  But I know at least one of the names personally and I can tell you they get it.  The fans can make you or break you, but when things start getting tough the worst thing you can do is complain about it being tough!  And never ever ever complain to your fans about your fans!  (egad!)  That is about as close to an instant crash landing as you can manage as any sort of public persona.  It's killed the career of pro sports players. and any number of you tube personalities. And lightspeed fast.. I think the record is pro sports was around 8 hours of a pro football player had him self a nice public rant about "The Fans" lack of appreciation of his god like talents on an evening nationally televised sportcast back in the 80's or 90's.. He was UNemployed by sun up the following morning.  Never complain about the fans.. ever.  Unless your ready to quit anyway.   

(Mr's Sterling and Jingle's were specifically mentioned first because streaming is their job.  It's what they do to make their living.  They're "professionals"  and their relationship to the public and the fans is absolutely critical to keeping an income.  Pretty sure the rest I mentioned all have "day jobs")

If you go "pro" presentation is everything!  Your selling an entertainment product, and that product is you!

So whats this got to do with "stats"?.   

  This is both difficult (to the extreme) and amazingly easy to explain.  Because stas matter, but only to a point.  The interpretation of stats never ever tells you what you NEED to know about a player.   They just don't.  matter of fact, they can't!   Stats come in two forms.  Stats for a match, ships sunk, captures, damage..in a word results. Your judged by these.  They give a measure of how good you are.  Your accumulated stats give a picture of how well you do over time.  You can break stats down to running solo, running divisioned, Random battles, Ranked Battles. Team/Clan Battles. Operations and PvE.  (we don't have yet the ability to take a snap shot over a set period of time.  I wish we had that because it would make it much much easier for player to have proof in front of their eyes of how they might be improving over time!  Maybe a dev will note this and do something about it because it would be a very good tool to have!)  

I've been stat shamed on these forums myself.  I won't be the first and I won't be the last.  When it happens its irritating.  And that's the limit of it because I've personally had the experiences in this game that tell me I can be over aggressive at times and it has cost me, but I know my ships, and a I'm a pretty good shot  with around an AVERAGE 40% hit percentage with My Akizuki, and Harekaze guns!!!  Note "Average".. there are days I just don't miss with much at all.  And other days where it's target?  What target? My torp hit percentage average is 5% to 6% and that is excellent in IJN DD's. (yes primarily a DD player, Maybe when IJN torps are no longer spotted from low orbit that may improve)  The point is, is if you look at my stats either here, or over at warships today or any other sites you are not, and cannot get a complete picture of how good a player is or is not.  There's nothing in the stats that can really tell you what the player is strong at, or weak at.  There are hints..but thats all they are is hints.  Without personal knowledge AND OBSERVATION of the player you just cannot know.  (baseball scouts.  To get the eyes on opinion!)  And the greater the period of time being looked at..(Life time stats) the more wildly inaccurate those numbers are in the short term right here right now.  People change, and players, if it's important to them, improve their skills.   

My lifetime win rate is 50%.. My low  number got down to 48% at one point.  it just went up by 1% out of a life time total of pretty close to 10,000 matches.. so yea, it's work, to bring my win rate up by 1% I need to win 100 battle more then I loose.  Last 3 months I've been doing a lot more winning then losing so that stats are finally improving but its going to take a lot more to get it up to a comfortable 60-65% or more.  What my stats don't show right now is I am no longer an average player. I'm seeing more and more 60-75% win rate days.  And I am way better then my stats would lead you to believe.  I just need a good smart canny team captain to point me! *chuckles* (and tell me when to back it off because sometimes I'm to busy and specific goal focused to noticed I'm in deep ship, and about to go 9 fathoms down!.. not nearly as bad as  I was a year ago but still ow! Not a natural talent.. had ta learn it all the hard way)   WOWS been cooking along now for better then 2 years and I am not alone.   A good many of you out there are bringing your level of skill up significantly over time and your stats aren't really showing it either.  It's to the point that the rerolls and "unicums" up in tier X play are starting to notice it.   Even the streamers are noticing the high tier meta is changing and its not because of new ships.  Its because a bunch as in several THOUSAND of you have finally ground your way to tier X and are playing, and some of you are bringing new tactics, new skills, and new views to high tier play.  And it's really messing with the established crowd up there as the "neighborhood goes to crap" ...It's not going to crap but it IS changing.  And for the better!  Some folk HATE change!  And they hate it worse to have their assumptions of "the way things are" have to change because the way things are IS changing!  I don't feel a lot of pity for them.   They're not victims of anything other then their own rather selfish opinions and views.. yea, some comeuppance has definitely been going on!  My inner voice is finding it wildly entertaining! And what really bugs  a few to many of them, especially some of the more influential types is they go use their adds on mods, and such and look at your stats and your stats stink, but you don't! (proof: they're sunk, and on the loosing team, your not!)  So which is incorrect, the stats or their perception of those stats?   Because your not a natural talent and you had to learn how to play and win the hard way (By getting yer ship kicked.. a lot!) YOU now have the advantage, the knowledge and most importantly, the skill to beat them, and to win.   Many of THEM have been lazy and complacent and are catching it IN THE SHORTS!  "They" are not happy...Even seeing some of it in the forums postings.  DO you have any idea how difficult it is to not scream and shout "I told ya, but you didn't listen, Now see whats happened, Ya shoulda listened!" 

We're need better stat collection of the right type if stats are going to be useful as a measure of player skill.  Warships.today has got it wrong, and they have had it wrong from the start but that's fine.  They cater to a specific kind of mind set in players.  and that mind set and sub set of the player population is NOT even remotely close to the majority of players by any stretch of any kind.  

DId all those high tier players that have been there for the last 2 years all suddenly get worse?  Nope.  On the other hand, they've had very little actual inspiration to get better either.  After all, they were all ready "at the top".    It a human thing, and it has been happening the same way for about ohhh 70,000 years of which we have some records of only about the last 3-4 thousand.   Its just the players entering "Their" arena have gotten better... much much better.  And they don't play the same way.  And those newly arriving tier VIII, IX and X players stats are not showing these Uber's what they are up against.

In conclusion.  Be distrustful of warships stats because they are incapable in their present form of telling you what you want to know about another play, or even your self..  The proof of it is right out there in the real world with well over a century of organized sports play in North America and elsewhere.  Stats can lie, and mislead.  And there's a goodly amount of that going on.  (looking at you WTR stat!) If your forming a clan, or a team of some sort.. go play with your prospects.  Don't count anyone out because of less then stellar stats. You need to find out what type of player they are.  Their attitude, composure, intelligence, and skill.  Are the aggressive, but controlled.  Are they wild and crazy but capable of picking off specific secondary mounts on a target at will at will? Are they passive?  DO they wait for the team to have a clear advantage before they are willing to take some risks? Are they some one that always "plays it safe" and wont take risks to win?  Are they team players or do they only play for their own numbers.  Are they persistent and play through even when things are going badly, or do they wilt in the clutch? Do they find solutions, or do they just simply dodge their share of responsibility when a team looses (we'd have won if that Destroyer/Cruiser/Battleship hadn't been AFK" etc.... Can they be depended on to perform consistently, or do you only put them in the line up on days they are "hot"?  You have to find that out and the stats we have in the game only hint at it.  They do not provide a definitive answer!

    If you want to go pro, you may need to get rid of your anti social potty mouthed best player because a sponsor will say "Either they change the attitude, or you remove them from your team else no sponsorship."  The pro player pay check comes from the sponsor!  When pro sports happen with wargame products the sponsors are going to only be concerned with one thing.. and that's how well you present to the public and represent THEM and their product, and brand.  They'll like you much more and can be quite generous to a winning team.  But you to them serve one purpose.    You don't have to be winners, but you DO have to act and carry yourselves as winners, not whiners!

Bad player "The sun was in my eyes, I couldn't see the ball!"

Good Player.. "Darn it!  Sunglare, I need a hat with a bigger visor! Or some good sports glasses!

Difference? One is an excuse, the other is positive and includes possible solutions.   Sponsor LOVE this stuff because it reflect on them, and their brand!

We will get there, and we will get there AS a community of players.. Our good players.. our not so good players, our casuals, and the ones that have a camp potty for a computer chair!  Support each other, avoid whining.. If your team looses a match, it looses a match, and like it or not, you win or loose as a team, even in random battles.  There's always going to be another one for as long as this game lasts.   Keeping a positive attitude in the face of adversity is a measure of who you are.  But alway bear in mind one team is going to loose.  Managing your looses matters! Managing yourself matter more!  Perception counts!

Right I'm done, off to go sink ships... and be sunk! (hate that part, comes with the territory!)

Warlord sends

 

 

 

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tl:dr   but  good job and if you keep at it, you will get your chance  :cap_yes:

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I'm sorry but, I can't get through that large a post at this time of day. I'm not trying to troll you - I'm just saying, it's almost 5 pm, and that's a book.

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3 minutes ago, Battlecruiser_Lutzow said:

I'm sorry but, I can't get through that large a post at this time of day. I'm not trying to troll you - I'm just saying, it's almost 5 pm, and that's a book.

TL;DR version - OP has bad overall stats, but he's not a bad player as he is improving.

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1 hour ago, TL_Warlord_Roff said:

We're need better stat collection of the right type if stats are going to be useful as a measure of player skill.  Warships.today has got it wrong, and they have had it wrong from the start but that's fine.  They cater to a specific kind of mind set in players.  and that mind set and sub set of the player population is NOT even remotely close to the majority of players by any stretch of any kind.  

What kind of stats should be measured? 

 

e: not trying to be a jerk, just curious what it is you're thinking

Edited by Deviathan

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simplest and best measurement would be  base XP, but     WG has adulterated it with  premium  bonus in the published stat.    

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Just now, centarina said:

simplest and best measurement would be  base XP, but     WG has adulterated it with  premium  bonus in the published stat.    

I've always thought base XP would be a good means of looking at performance.  That's what I typically look at post-match to see how the teams stacked up and who did well and who didn't.  Maybe not solely based on base XP, but it should have a part in the formula.  But like you said, there are also a couple premiums out there that get a base XP bonus built in if I'm not mistaken (Sims and Atlanta?).

Edited by Deviathan

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Just now, Deviathan said:

I've always thought base XP would be a good means of looking at performance.  Maybe not solely based on XP, but it should have a part in the formula.  But like you said, there are also a couple premiums out there that get a base XP bonus built in if I'm not mistaken (Sims and Atlanta?).

i don't even care about those  premium ship  extra bonus because that is balanced with poor performance.    published XP has   premium account +50%    bonus and tough to take out. 

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Just now, centarina said:

i don't even care about those  premium ship  extra bonus because that is balanced with poor performance.    published XP has   premium account +50%    bonus and tough to take out. 

Oh, yeah, I get what you're saying.  I would like to see the reported XP that is in our profiles be the base XP without premium modifiers.  It would be nice to have base XP split out as its own category, at least in what can be pulled with API, even if our profiles are set to display with or without premium modifiers.

Edited by Deviathan

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TL;DR: Stats don't tell the whole story, and the WoWS community is stuck using pretty bad ones like WTR, which is several years old. Also, don't be a [edited], it's unprofessional.

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Read thru the first quarter of that post, then realized it was only a quarter of it (if that) and stopped.... Have no idea what you're trying to say, but it shouldn't take an encyclopedia to say it.

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7 minutes ago, Edgecase said:

TL;DR: Stats don't tell the whole story, and the WoWS community is stuck using pretty bad ones like WTR, which is several years old. Also, don't be a [edited], it's unprofessional.

not all of us can be as professional with integrity as certain unnamed player  :cap_haloween:

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Not reading that, too long.. however from the other posts summarizing the post I’d say this..

I’ve always thought there should be a track/stat on “avg position on team” ... this would be a number between 1-12.  There are so many factors in this game that affect all other stats.  We’ve all had the games with junk melting team mates or junk melting enemies that end before a lot happens.  We all play different classes of ships which affect damage delivered.  Win rate is an odd one because we’ve also all gone on runs where we were sucking yet being carried and vice versa. 

What is constant is being measured by your team in a ranked list from 1 to 12.  If someone is consistently in the top 5 of their team you’re going to see who the best players are over time.  I’m not sure any other single stat is a good measurement of skill in this game.

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8 minutes ago, TurboT said:

Not reading that, too long.. however from the other posts summarizing the post I’d say this..

I’ve always thought there should be a track/stat on “avg position on team” ... this would be a number between 1-12.  There are so many factors in this game that affect all other stats.  We’ve all had the games with junk melting team mates or junk melting enemies that end before a lot happens.  We all play different classes of ships which affect damage delivered.  Win rate is an odd one because we’ve also all gone on runs where we were sucking yet being carried and vice versa. 

What is constant is being measured by your team in a ranked list from 1 to 12.  If someone is consistently in the top 5 of their team you’re going to see who the best players are over time.  I’m not sure any other single stat is a good measurement of skill in this game.

I would say this is spot on. Avg Position on any given team results,W/L it would be the AVG 1 -12 for random battles. Each mode of battle would have their own scale.

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1 hour ago, centarina said:

simplest and best measurement would be  base XP, but     WG has adulterated it with  premium  bonus in the published stat.    

It only shows base XP, so Premium xp isn't included.

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1 minute ago, Madwolf05 said:

It only shows base XP, so Premium xp isn't included.

not the XP that gets reported by API.  that one is the one that has issues.  not the post match team screen one. 

Edited by centarina

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8 hours ago, sbcptnitro said:

Calling @VGLance...

Yeah, haven't seen him on the forums lately. .

B

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22 minutes ago, bassmasta76 said:

Yeah, haven't seen him on the forums lately. .

B

 

9 hours ago, sbcptnitro said:

Calling @VGLance...

LOL guys, he's been busy most nights in the garage / woodshop building a Hollywood-style vanity mirror for the Mrs. because at 18 weeks it's getting harder to climb into the sink to get close enough to the mirror to put her makeup on. Yeah she's tiny enough to fit in a bathroom sink under normal, non-bun-in-the-oven conditions. 

As far as the OP, I think if he knew about warships.today and the time component as well as the graphs that show improvement over time, half his post would not have been written. Kinda lost me as he wondered off into streamerville, but I give him an A for passion re: the subject matter. 

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9 hours ago, sbcptnitro said:

Calling @VGLance...

Except Lance's post of a similar bent was intended to be the quite humorous joke it was, whereas this thread is more of an impassioned, if slightly rambling, treatise on what the difference is between a player and a sportsman. I can definitely see where he is coming from, though, but if I were him, I wouldn't hold my breath on this game becoming an eSport. Balance issues aside, the game still has a ways to go content-wise, not to mention setup for any kind of integrated competitive aspect beyond Ranked and Clan Battles (and we know how well-suited terrible the former is at separating the proverbial wheat from the chaff).

They're working on it, but something tells me we won't be seeing any World of Warships Grand Finals tournaments for a couple of years yet.

Edited by Goodwood_Alpha
FREE KEKISTAN!

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I look at individual ship stats. Good enough for me to measure performance with any given ship. Anyway, as the saying goes, you only as good as your last battle.

 

It's the vibe off the thing man. It's the vibe :Smile_glasses:

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7 hours ago, A_Crying_Hipster said:

 

LOL guys, he's been busy most nights in the garage / woodshop building a Hollywood-style vanity mirror for the Mrs. because at 18 weeks it's getting harder to climb into the sink to get close enough to the mirror to put her makeup on. Yeah she's tiny enough to fit in a bathroom sink under normal, non-bun-in-the-oven conditions. 

Glad to know he's ok:cap_like:

B

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*chuckes*

 

yea a bit of TL:DR for some.. but the post was titled  "Essay" so you were warned!  And yes I did ramble a little bit to cover some points, and I also edited the crap out of it! (it was about half again longer!)

Yes I want this game to go E-sport, but, we the players have to take it there.  WG cannot do it by it's self!  E-Sports to work need sponsors.  Anything  WG does is just a promotional tool for the product.  It our passion that will take it beyond that.   Those of you that recall the Burn's documentary on Baseball (go watch it if you have not.  Amazing parallels to online gaming development)  will discover that baseball was an entirely casual sport until teams owner got together and formed leagues... then they went and found sponsors!  and that's how we have MLB today!

The point on stats is yes we do need something that is a better tool stat wise.  Base XP and position at the end of match may very well be the numbers we need to look at.  How the game scores us.  I'm not sure.  I am not a statistician.  (I may have to learn.. uhg!) but the current system, and the externals used (WTR) are not good measures of the player, and yes I do agree that bonuses due to premium ships do need to be calculated out of any numerics, as they will present a false picture of performance if the noted are used.  

The other point made is on stat chasing (again WTR) and the rather negative effect it has on a team's performance and how it encourages a "(explitive of choice) the team" attitude with those that decide to do the high WTR chase.  I've seen it, I don't like it, it's not "sportsmanship".  It not playing for the team.    And it encourages a style of play  that I just do not feel is good for either the game or the community.  It's a very anti social thing.

 

Anyway glad I got some folks thinking about it because THAT is the whole point of it.  It's not  one simple subject that can taken in isolation.  Stats, sportmanship, perception.  It's all related and connected to each other and it IS complicated.  And you all love it or you wouldn'; be playing this silly computer MMO game just like I am!

 

See you in match!

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On Thursday, March 01, 2018 at 4:36 PM, sbcptnitro said:

Calling @VGLance...

I believe it's the Crying Hipster you're looking for....:Smile_smile:

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The only stat that really matters is win rate, and then only over time.  

I'm not sure how you pull a 70% win rate in a BB with 20k average damage, but if you do that over a span of 200 games or so I want you in my team.  Much more than I want the BB with a 2k WTR and 200k average damage with a 45% win rate.  

If you're 55% and declining that's not good. If you're 50% and improving that is good.

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