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KalishniKat

Convinced the Game is Rigged

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After 4000+ battles I have come to the conclusion that there is some algorithm that kicks in when you have had a decent streak that is designed to put you on crap teams or in some way knock you back down. No sooner have I, after a long climb, gotten to 50% plus WR then its 8 to 9 losses in a row..get 80k damage..lose, get confederate..lose, doesn't matter how well you play..lose. It seems as if there some design set in place to keep you from truly moving up. After all..if you get too good and happy you won't spend money on premiums and assorted stuff as much in an attempt to improve right??? It may sound tin foil hat, but I've seen it too many times for it to be a coincidence. 

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The difference between someone who wins 50% of their battles and someone else who wins 60% (or any other number) is their ability to compensate for the less skilled players around them.  That does not necessarily mean that those players with higher WRs throw down 200k, 7 kill games every time out, nor that those with lower win rates never manage battles like that.  It just means that those who can win more consistently given an equal playing field (i.e., everyone solo and not just seal clubbing) are better at reading the minimap in real time and projecting how the battle is likely to unfold given ship positions, health pools, etc.

Looking at your stats, you are still a 50% player (or as close as makes no difference).  That's better than the majority of WoWs captains.  You might not be as good as someone else when it comes to reacting in the best way during an unfolding battle, but you're not holding your teams back either.  Getting that number even higher doesn't mean getting lucky in the matchmaking, doing a ton of damage, capturing a lot of dom points, or averaging 4 kills per battle...it just means being able to deduce more often from the minimap that your team's eastern flank is about to collapse and you can help prevent that, or that the opposing team is weak in your area and an aggressive push will work, or that the B cap is going to fall no matter what you do & the best course of action is to fall back and try to recapture it later.  Not all games are winnable no matter how well an individual plays, and not all games are definitive losses regardless of how poorly another does.

You've worked hard to get your game up to this level.  Now you just have to keep working to get to the next one, and stop allowing yourself to get hung up on tin foil hat stuff. :Smile-_tongue:

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Sometime you should just play 1 or 2 game to evaluate the team and leave if it's bad.

 

 

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1 hour ago, RagingxMarmoset said:

Then how are there players with win rates above 60%?

Those players tend to Division a lot as well as spend money to get 19 point Captains, premium ships, and upgrades. But still not enough unless the player has good skills as a player, but all this combined grants great WR.

My Corgi Account WR was very high since everything was given to me with full upgrades and 19 point Captains, I never was in a Division as a Corgi and even with everyone on the enemy team wanting to kill me I still pulled good stats off this weekend because yes I have the skills as a player, but also was granted the max power level you can get out of ships.

 

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I blame divisions. All of those funny colored boxes turned purple after I joined a clan. Quite odd. 

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2 hours ago, RagingxMarmoset said:

Then how are there players with win rates above 60%?

They division. If you could only guarantee three coordinated, halfway decent, players on a team you could win most matches against random teams.

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WR is easily manipulated by divisions. 

In a tryhard 3x T4 division, I can probably see WRs reaching 90%. Even in T10, 3x divisions can see over 70% WR.

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2 hours ago, KalishniKat said:

After 4000+ battles I have come to the conclusion that there is some algorithm that kicks in when you have had a decent streak that is designed to put you on crap teams or in some way knock you back down. 

I don't know about this game but at least in mods, I've seen this programmed into other games, where if someone was running away with the points their next unit upgrades were nerfed into downgrades. However, if they actually were good enough to get past that level then they got to the game-ender level with a "god" unit that could not be killed. This was in a open-ended peer-to-peer game with no time limit so something had to be programmed in to end what could be potentially an infinitely-long game (I actually played a seven hour game in Age of Empires III once).

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2 hours ago, Harv72b said:

The difference between someone who wins 50% of their battles and someone else who wins 60% (or any other number) is their ability to compensate for the less skilled players around them.  That does not necessarily mean that those players with higher WRs throw down 200k, 7 kill games every time out, nor that those with lower win rates never manage battles like that.  It just means that those who can win more consistently given an equal playing field (i.e., everyone solo and not just seal clubbing) are better at reading the minimap in real time and projecting how the battle is likely to unfold given ship positions, health pools, etc.

Looking at your stats, you are still a 50% player (or as close as makes no difference).  That's better than the majority of WoWs captains.  You might not be as good as someone else when it comes to reacting in the best way during an unfolding battle, but you're not holding your teams back either.  Getting that number even higher doesn't mean getting lucky in the matchmaking, doing a ton of damage, capturing a lot of dom points, or averaging 4 kills per battle...it just means being able to deduce more often from the minimap that your team's eastern flank is about to collapse and you can help prevent that, or that the opposing team is weak in your area and an aggressive push will work, or that the B cap is going to fall no matter what you do & the best course of action is to fall back and try to recapture it later.  Not all games are winnable no matter how well an individual plays, and not all games are definitive losses regardless of how poorly another does.

You've worked hard to get your game up to this level.  Now you just have to keep working to get to the next one, and stop allowing yourself to get hung up on tin foil hat stuff. :Smile-_tongue:

Beautifully said.
 

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3 hours ago, KalishniKat said:

After 4000+ battles I have come to the conclusion that there is some algorithm that kicks in when you have had a decent streak that is designed to put you on crap teams or in some way knock you back down. No sooner have I, after a long climb, gotten to 50% plus WR then its 8 to 9 losses in a row..get 80k damage..lose, get confederate..lose, doesn't matter how well you play..lose. It seems as if there some design set in place to keep you from truly moving up. After all..if you get too good and happy you won't spend money on premiums and assorted stuff as much in an attempt to improve right??? It may sound tin foil hat, but I've seen it too many times for it to be a coincidence. 

The Gambler's Fallacy is the mistaken belief that the chances of something happening with a fixed probability become higher or lower as the process is repeated. People who commit the gambler's fallacy believe that past events affect the probability of something happening in the future.

Edited by Sventex
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5 hours ago, RagingxMarmoset said:

Then how are there players with win rates above 60%?

They are the Illuminati, or those who find favor therefrom, of course.

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I have played 85% of my 3111 tracked games solo, coming out to a... 56% win rate. My more recent solo endeavors have been using Conqueror to farm an emblem rather than strive for true enemy death and get Haifuri crates with a HSF GZ, so my recent win rate has plummeted as my result of my willingness to not take the game seriously. I am no magic beanie either.

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Most of my high tier IJN DDs have 60% Winrates, as well as my high tier CVs and my myoko. 60% is acheivable through moderately good play. There's no conspiracy.

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There's no MM conspiracy - but there may be some combination of statistical and psychological effects that make it seem that way.  I know that whenever I reach some sort of milestone WR number I tend to bounce around it for a few weeks before consolidating.  It could be that I'm playing tight, it could be simply the law of averages catching up - I could well have gotten there through a streak of undeserved wins which I have failed to find remarkable even as I find the losses that follow a sign of my divine disfavor.

While I've yet to find a good way of accelerating that consolidation phase, you could jump into your most comfortable low tier ship or OP premium for just a bit - I don't want to advocate seal clubbing, but dessert can be part of a balanced diet, etc.  We won't tell.

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You can tell at the start of the game sometimes. you watch your shots that usually result in a citadel splash all around your target not hitting anything..you know that in that game RNG has your number and it won't turn out well. Also it has happened every time i've hit a certain number. When I got to 49.5% I was greeted with a massive losing streak. Now at 50%, same thing. I never have the same massive win streaks..occasional 4 or 5 streaks but winning is a long hard 50 to 60% grind, where as losing comes quickly in big inexplicable streaks. In these streaks statistically it would be better to be AFK. 

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The algorithm is your ability... a 50% win rate kind of player.. you can easily win 10 in a row.. and lose 10 in a row.  Sure it may be unpredictable at times.. but until you further improve, it will essentially come out even.   

Also, there are a fair amount of players who don't need to consistently division to win 60%+ of the time.  I am 85% solo as an example and there are plenty others.  

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59 minutes ago, FratStar4Life said:

Winrate is all luck :cap_wander_2:

In part. The teams you get do depend on the "luck of the draw." However, I've found that those teams with a bona fide unicum on them (one who gets not only a Kraken but a Confederate or High Caliber, showing that he is doing damage as well as getting kills) generally win. That is, if you want to consistently win, and you don't play in a division, you must be good enough to carry.

Heraclitus

“Out of every one hundred men, ten shouldn't even be there, eighty are just targets, nine are the real fighters, and we are lucky to have them, for they make the battle. Ah, but the one, one is a warrior, and he will bring the others back.”


 Heraclitus

 

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4 hours ago, Snargfargle said:

They division. If you could only guarantee three coordinated, halfway decent, players on a team you could win most matches against random teams.

I don't division.  I haven't had time to division in over a year.  Let's check that win rate:
OIY5l9d.png
Yep.  Still doing okay.

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1 minute ago, LittleWhiteMouse said:

I don't division.  I haven't had time to division in over a year.  Let's check that win rate:
OIY5l9d.png
Yep.  Still doing okay.

That's because you are one of the warriors that Hericlitus spoke of.

“Out of every one hundred men, ten shouldn't even be there, eighty are just targets, nine are the real fighters, and we are lucky to have them, for they make the battle. Ah, but the one, one is a warrior, and he will bring the others back.”


 Heraclitus

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