What are the odds??

[Sabot_100]

Played a game this weekend in a Charles Martel. Got 84 HE hits and 1 (ONE) fire in a tier 8-10 match. I will admit some of my targets already had a fire or two burning but others had no fires going. Other than RNG hates me, how is this possible? (No DE or IFHE)

[Lert]

Ships have an inherent fire resistance, the higher tier the ship the higher the fire resistance. There are skills that enhance fire resistance and modules that do. Plus, you can't start a fire on a section of a ship that is already on fire. And then there's RNG.

[RipNuN2]

You might find the wiki entry helpful in explaining how fire works. http://wiki.wargaming.net/en/Ship:Fire

 

[NeutralState]

Net chance per shell fire starting chance per shot you already know

you also know the total shell number per salvo

therefore you can calculate the chance of at least 1 fire per salvo, if all shells hit

it's a simple binomial calculation

[Sovereigndawg]

 

[K538]

It happens.  The probability of getting a fire is not only situational depending on how many fires are already set (the first fire on most ships is almost always the easiest simply because it's most likely one of the superstructure spots that are much easier to hit), the opposing captain's skills and ship modules and the random chance of the effect in the first place.

The only meaningful metric is the chance of fire over hundreds of games.  Sometimes you're going to get 15 fires on 100 hits, sometimes you're going to get zero on 300.

[AspiringCodger]

I know you said other than RNG, but a large part is simply just RNG.  Every shell is a roll of the dice.  I've had games with over 300 shells landed in an Atlanta with DE and both fire flags and still had less than half a dozen fires.  I even had a game with my Iron Duke this weekend with over 50 shells landed and zero fires.