Twelve Months of Trying My Luck

[pikohan]

This is a follow up to my post of half a year ago, Six Months of TYL. At the time, I had only recorded a total of about 200 pulls, but now I have a bit more than triple the amount of data, but the distribution actually looks pretty similar. Once again, here is my Google Docs and a quick summary of the findings:

pikohan (NA - regular acct)

Spoiler

Total Containers	462
Flags	306 (66.2%)
Camos	45 (9.7%)
Super Containers	19 (4.1%)

 

QQMoore (NA - friend's acct)

Spoiler

Total Containers	67
Flags	43 (64.2%)
Camos	4 (6.0%)
Super Containers	5 (7.5%)

 

bradly_colin (ASIA - smurf acct)

Spoiler

Total Containers	112
Flags	78 (70.0%)
Camos	6 (5.4%)
Super Containers	6 (5.4%)

 

Across all three accounts the cumulative distribution is:

Total Containers	641
Flags	427 (66.7%)
Camos	55 (8.6%)
Super Containers	30 (4.7%)

 

It has long been suggested, though I have no idea where the number(s) came from, that the chance of pulling super containers is about 3% from TYL and 1% from all the other containers. I'm not going to do any proper statistical analysis here, but this data does more strongly suggest that the actual chance of pulling a super container from TYL could be in the realm of 50% more than the oft quoted figure. 

That's good news, but it isn't all good.. let's look again at what you can get in the containers:

Flags (sets of 4) are still by far the most common TYL container, representing two-thirds of pulls. You can get 12 of the 17 standard flags (no ramming, repair cost, fire duration, flooding duration, or secondary flags), with probably close to equal probability. All of these flags are generally pretty useful, and this is basically my main source of detonation flags. 

Free XP (lots of 750) is still the second most common TYL container, representing 16.8% of pulls. This is also quite useful, but the quantity is really quite small. Over the course of a year, I've scraped together 57k Free XP from standard TYL containers, or just 7% of the cost of a Missouri. Still sad that they nerfed this from 3k way back in the day. 

Camo (sets of 2) represents 8.6% of the pulls, and some of them like gamescom and restless fire are quite good, especially given that you would have to pay real money otherwise to get them. Sadly the quantities are extremely small, and the most common type of camo seems to be the Type 5, which one with no economic benefit that you can buy for credits. 

Credits (lots of 75k) are still almost as rare as super containers and pretty much the least useful.

Finally, we get to super containers! Here are the contents the 30 super containers in order from most to least desirable (my opinion):

• 1 Doubloons (1000)
• 1 Premium Time (7)
• 1 Free XP (50000)
• 3 Special Camos (Lá Fhéile Pádraig, Ocean Soul, usually lots of 50)
• 4 Special Flags (Dragon, Red Dragon, Ouroboros, lots of 25, 50)
• 15 Special Mods 
• 4 Standard Flags (India X-Ray, Zulu, Victor Lima, November Echo, lots of 100)
• 1 Credits (5M)

To me the point of TYL has always been to have a better chance of something you can't typically earn in the game, at the expensive of getting more "common" items (flags, consumables, credits). For the most part, this works: everything down to the special mods is something you would normally have to buy, but that doesn't help the fact that half of these super containers are still the damn special mods. It's not that the special mods are that bad as a whole, but I have of course ended up with many of the ones I can't use and none of the ones I can use, in addition to six of the absolutely useless Damacon Mod 1. 

So there you have it: one year of TYL data, 641 pulls. tl;dr the chance of getting a super container from TYL is probably higher than quoted, but the contents are, for the most part, less super than hoped.

[DerKrampus]

Seems to reaffirm what I've felt all along.  Better to just take the more focused boxes, and get more overall?

[JToney3449]

Right at 5% chance for SC on TYL.  They need to remove those mods and put them for sell by credits like all the others, they have no place being in SC.  Sad to see you got no ships from them, I would have liked to have seen the % of that happening.  In all my SC I have only gotten 1 ship, the T6 french cruiser.  Id give you an upvote for your effort but im out of them for today.

[Snargfargle]

Very comprehensive list. As a former scientist, who has collected and compiled a lot of data myself, I heartily approve of your dedication here. As a server-based game, WOWS keeps much of its inner statistical workings secret so that many probabilities have to be determined empirically. This information will help players decide which choice to make when selecting crates.

What I especially find interesting is that you have confirmed that modules are indeed received at least half the time in supercontainers, which is what the community has been speculating since they were introduced. I'd still, however, like to know the odds of winning a ship. I have no idea how many supercontainers I've received but in over a year I've only gotten one ship so the odds must be slim indeed.

All that said, why is it that I continue to think of you as a tiny kitten after writing you into one of my stories as such? 

[Estimated_Prophet]

4 minutes ago, DerKrampus said:

Seems to reaffirm what I've felt all along.  Better to just take the more focused boxes, and get more overall?

Who's to say?
 

@pikohan seems to have run straight TYLs, and I run 1-2-3, 1-2-3, 1-2-3,  (Signals-Consumables-TYL) and still seem to get a pretty good spread of stuff.

 

@DerKrampus most of my ship pulls have appeared out of Christmas containers, (six last year, seven this year.)

[Doomlock]

Very interesting, good analysis Pikohan.

[abyssofthetriffid]

The super containers are super garbage would you like to see such garbage from a super? i have a pic here............

 

Me if i could i would delete them from my port all of this nonsense.

[BrushWolf]

18 minutes ago, DerKrampus said:

Seems to reaffirm what I've felt all along.  Better to just take the more focused boxes, and get more overall?

I agree, a three times chance on an extremely low chance is still an extremely low chance. Since I don't sell off ships I am always in need of credits so I almost always go with credits and since there are so many meh SC's getting 50k or more credits every time is more useful for me.

[pikohan]

26 minutes ago, DerKrampus said:

Seems to reaffirm what I've felt all along.  Better to just take the more focused boxes, and get more overall?

 

I didn't really want to make a judgement on that as it's hard to say, and probably depends on the player. For myself I really want to get things that I'd otherwise have to buy, and for the most part it's working out. I don't play enough to exhaust the flags and such that I've been earning in-game. If someone is burning through flags really fast or going broke buying premium consumables, they may want to go for those instead. 

 

21 minutes ago, Snargfargle said:

All that said, why is it that I continue to think of you as a tiny kitten after writing you into one of my stories as such? 

Some sort of first impression bias? 

[Show_Me_Your_Cits]

No matter how rare or not-super they are, they're still 1000x better than the daily missions we had before.... 

[Sito]

Thanks for the work.

 

I went for TYL from the start.  Right up until they added the mods.  I went 7-8 super containers in a row with mods when the were added.  They are mostly worthless.  Switched to the camo option.  Camo costs and everything else you can get by playing.  It keeps me supplied with camo and flags.

 

Thanks again!

[1SneakyDevil]

19 minutes ago, abyssofthetriffid said:

The super containers are super garbage would you like to see such garbage from a super? i have a pic here............

 

Me if i could i would delete them from my port all of this nonsense.

Yep 3 of my last 6 SCs have been doubloons or premium time such garbage, I was expecting Tomahawk cruise missile or the ability to mute trolls in game chat.

9 minutes ago, Show_Me_Your_Cits said:

No matter how rare or not-super they are, they're still 1000x better than the daily missions we had before.... 

Absolutely

[SkywhaleExpress]

I dunno. I got 3 in a row on Thursday.

I’ve collected over 1000 containers and have gotten like 100 SC’s. Sometimes it takes about 3 months to see one, the. I get flooded with them.. other times I get then multiple times a week.

 

When I got 3 in a row this last thursday, I was clickibg more signals and camo

[_WaveRider_]

1 hour ago, JToney3449 said:

Right at 5% chance for SC on TYL.  They need to remove those mods and put them for sell by credits like all the others, they have no place being in SC.  Sad to see you got no ships from them, I would have liked to have seen the % of that happening.  In all my SC I have only gotten 1 ship, the T6 french cruiser.  Id give you an upvote for your effort but im out of them for today.

I have never received a special upgrade! (Never got a ship either lol). However, I guess that's just the way it goes - especially when other people complain about the upgrades so much, the chance of winning them became less. I love that 'I don't want them any more so change the chance' attitude of some.

 

I therefore totally agree with your idea to have them as a purchase item either with credits, or oil (from the personal wallet that was supposed to run alongside the amount you earn for your clan).

[ksix]

Am I the only one who needs mods? I've gotten about 15SC in total between Yamamoto and daily rewards and have gotten only 3 mods. Usually its a handful of gold or flags worth about $3.  

[Happy668]

interesting data

[BrushWolf]

59 minutes ago, Happy668 said:

interesting data

Yes it is but just like with gas mileage YMMV. You have to go with the type of container that you feel gives the best result for you.

[pikohan]

7 hours ago, Show_Me_Your_Cits said:

No matter how rare or not-super they are, they're still 1000x better than the daily missions we had before.... 

I agree with this 100%.

 

6 hours ago, SkywhaleExpress said:

I dunno. I got 3 in a row on Thursday.

I’ve collected over 1000 containers and have gotten like 100 SC’s. Sometimes it takes about 3 months to see one, the. I get flooded with them.. other times I get then multiple times a week.

 

When I got 3 in a row this last thursday, I was clickibg more signals and camo

The distribution across time is definitely very peaky. I've gotten two in a day and none in two months... this is just the nature of any random thing: it will look peaky at some level and smooth out if you "zoom out" enough.

[Royeaux]

Huh, after opening 60 TYL boxes and getting no supers, I figured chance was less then 2% and gave up.

[desmo_2]

I don't have a year of documentation, but here are my results since Sept. 12, 2017:

Spoiler

Since LWM's suggestion, I hoard all of my regular containers until I get a Super, then open them all.  On some of my previous SC's I had 45 and 150 containers pending.

9/12/17 - TYL super container = 50 Ocean Soul camo.  I had 35 containers pending.

9/14/17 - TYL super container = Defensive AA Fire Mod 1.  I had 4 containers pending.

Two super containers = 100 Juliet Charlie signals, and 100 Juliet Charlie signals again (ouch!) for owning 2 T10 ships during WoWS 2nd Anniversary event.

9/20/17 - TYL super container = 50 Halloween 2016 camo.  I had 13 regular containers pending.

9/22/17 - Two super containers from Stage 3 of Yamamoto campaign = 50 La Fheile Padraig 2017 camo, and smoke generator mod 1.

10/12/17 - Two super containers from Stage 4 of Yamamoto campaign = spotting aircraft mod 1 (sigh) and engine boost mod 1.

10/16/17 - TYL super container = 25 Red Dragon flags.  I had 46 regular containers pending.

11/13/17 - signals super container = 50 Wyvern flags.  I had 51 regular TYL and Signals containers pending.

11/14/17 - signals super container = 50 Halloween 2016 camo.  I had 2 signals containers pending. 

12/3/17 - signals super container = 50 Ouroboros flags.  I had somewhere in the neighborhood of 30-40 containers pending.

12/23/17 - TYL super container = 50 Gamescom camo. I had 32 regular containers pending.  (This is my favorite of the non-historical camo...one of the few I do like)

1/4/18 - two super containers for Containers of the Past mission = 100 Sierra Mike signals, and 50 Restless Fire camo.

1/27/18 - TYL super container = 7 days premium time.  I had 69 regular containers pending.