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Simuo

SALE! SALE! Nikolai! You got $2K, we got that ship! Anyone?

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Last year Christmas, I invested roughly $60 and I got TWO Imperator Nikolai I in a row. I have more premium ships than I know and Nikolai completed my collection.. Well I still miss an Iwaki Alpha but the chance is slim.

 

This year, I am interested to know what's the odd of getting a Nikolai this year by betting on Santa's Crete?  More importantly, how much do we spend to _surely_ get a Nikolai? I have no way of knowing the source code of dice-rolling algorithm running in WG's game server, so I decided to reverse engineer that from the result posted in this forum.

 

There are two ways of getting a Nikolai:

  1. A crate gives you a rate ships (the 34 ships listed in WoWS official website), and that rare ship is Nikolai.
  2. A crate gives you one ship (premium, or rare), and because you have every ships except Nikolai, the algorithm has no other choice but gives you a Nikolai.

 

The first way is unheard of. I haven't see anyone posting getting a Nikolai _before_ they got other ships. So let's assume the chance is insignificant and exclude it from the study. The second way, however, is very possible. The forum has a lot of numbers that we can use to reverse engineer the probability of 'getting a ship'.

 

I scanned through the post and I got a rough estimation. $3 crate - 10% of getting a ship (sample size 300). I may refine my statistics later I have more time. According to Nyquist-Shannon sampling theory, 300 crate is way more than 20 minimal sample size to justify a 10% probability. However, there is a loose end:

 

People tend to speak more about their success than failure. A player who lost in Santa's Crate gamble may not have the right mood to share the story, while a winning player would be more in the mood of showing his Christmas gifts. So I decided to cut the probability in half (without any extensive study). So we have:

 

$3 crate - 5% chance of getting a ship, which means you spend $60 and you get a ship

 

I further assume that WG doesn't roll a dice to select the rare ship when you get a duplicate premium ship. In another word, you would get Okhotnik, followed by October Revolution, Giulio Cesare, and so on. After you reach Tirpitz, you get Kamikaze, then Gremyaschy, then the final prize is the Nikolai (refer to WoWS official website for the list of 34 ships)

 

Then the formula is easy. If you don't have any premium ships, all you need to do is spend $60 x (3 + 34) = $2220  ($2216 to be exact) and get every ship in the list (3 premium + 34 rare), and the last one is Nikolai. For every ship that you already own, cut $60 off from the $2220 baseline cost.

 

Is it worthy to spend 2K to get the Nikolai (plus other stuff)? I wouldn't say so. However, if you already have a lot of premium ships, getting a Nikolai is very doable.

Or there is another path: wait for the next Amada sale ($400 to get you all ships) then spend $300 next year to get a Nikolai (assuming next year list has Belfast, Kutuzov, Kamikaze, Grem and Nikolai) - $700 only! what a bargain.

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I mean last year I had everything but Nikolai and so the first ship it gave me was niko....then another 8 in a row after that lol. I'm sure it's toned down.  Took 60 5 dollar crates just got get the Huang, kii and gallant for me this year.

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8 minutes ago, simuo said:

Last year Christmas, I invested roughly $60 and I got TWO Imperator Nikolai I in a row. I have more premium ships than I know and Nikolai completed my collection.. Well I still miss an Iwaki Alpha but the chance is slim.

 

This year, I am interested to know what's the odd of getting a Nikolai this year by betting on Santa's Crete?  More importantly, how much do we spend to _surely_ get a Nikolai? I have no way of knowing the source code of dice-rolling algorithm running in WG's game server, so I decided to reverse engineer that from the result posted in this forum.

 

There are two ways of getting a Nikolai:

  1. A crate gives you a rate ships (the 34 ships listed in WoWS official website), and that rare ship is Nikolai.
  2. A crate gives you one ship (premium, or rare), and because you have every ships except Nikolai, the algorithm has no other choice but gives you a Nikolai.

 

The first way is unheard of. I haven't see anyone posting getting a Nikolai _before_ they got other ships. So let's assume the chance is insignificant and exclude it from the study. The second way, however, is very possible. The forum has a lot of numbers that we can use to reverse engineer the probability of 'getting a ship'.

 

I scanned through the post and I got a rough estimation. $3 crate - 10% of getting a ship (sample size 300). I may refine my statistics later I have more time. According to Nyquist-Shannon sampling theory, 300 crate is way more than 20 minimal sample size to justify a 10% probability. However, there is a loose end:

 

People tend to speak more about their success than failure. A player who lost in Santa's Crate gamble may not have the right mood to share the story, while a winning player would be more in the mood of showing his Christmas gifts. So I decided to cut the probability in half (without any extensive study). So we have:

 

$3 crate - 5% chance of getting a ship, which means you spend $60 and you get a ship

 

I further assume that WG doesn't roll a dice to select the rare ship when you get a duplicate premium ship. In another word, you would get Okhotnik, followed by October Revolution, Giulio Cesare, and so on. After you reach Tirpitz, you get Kamikaze, then Gremyaschy, then the final prize is the Nikolai (refer to WoWS official website for the list of 34 ships)

 

Then the formula is easy. If you don't have any premium ships, all you need to do is spend $60 x (3 + 34) = $2220  ($2216 to be exact) and get every ship in the list (3 premium + 34 rare), and the last one is Nikolai. For every ship that you already own, cut $60 off from the $2220 baseline cost.

 

Is it worthy to spend 2K to get the Nikolai (plus other stuff)? I wouldn't say so. However, if you already have a lot of premium ships, getting a Nikolai is very doable.

Or there is another path: wait for the next Amada sale ($400 to get you all ships) then spend $300 next year to get a Nikolai (assuming next year list has Belfast, Kutuzov, Kamikaze, Grem and Nikolai) - $700 only! what a bargain.

I think my Nikolai cost me $12.99 or something.

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I got the Nikolai without having all of the ships on the list last year but I do think the Nikolai and the Gremlin both have a reduced chance compared to other less unicorn like ships.

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