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Bill_Halsey

Define OP in terms of W/R ratio

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This has bugging me for a while:

 

How do you determine a ship is OP in terms of win rate? Is it a hard number? Is it how far ahead it is from the nearest ship in class/tier?

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I'm not sure if it's a simple matter of win rate. The Belfast would not be any less OP if it had a lower win rate. Though, one would definitely think that an unbalanced ship would show up in the collective win rate. 

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You can't, because OP is defined, in most cases, as an object, in this case ship, that disproportionately unbalances 1 on 1 combat from the expected norm, especially outside of the expect 'comfort' zone. For example, it is *expected* that a CA should always lose 1 on 1 with a BB, but a CA that is capable of easily trouncing a BB, either with smoke fire + radar + HE rain (Belfast, and I have one, and it is MOST CERTAINTY overpowered), long range, fast, fast reloading torps, or things of that ilk. Likewise a BB that is disproportionately balanced against a DD is overpowered on the basis it isn't SUPPOSED to be. Or a CV with a wacky drop pattern that is punishing to a CA (their natural counter). These are what make ships overpowered. Not win ratio which is subject to the rest of the team, but rather it's ability to carry itself through a fight its not 'supposed' to win.

 

As such I would argue K/D is a better indicator of a particular ship's overpowered-ness as that is in stark terms how much more often it kills than is killed. Even Average damage doesn't tell the whole story as, IMO, the Kidd is Overpowered, but only as a DD hunter, so it's total damages will not peak high, but it's effect in a 1on1 showdown vs. another DD is felt in nearly all cases (few ships punch up as well as the Kidd, taking on a gearing is child's play in a Kidd).

Edited by _RC1138
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Oh that's just wrong..   (galaxy quest in the engine room scene)

 

If a newb can beat yer [edited]in it 2 out of 3 matches is prolly OP.

 

 

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I know when they looked at the Conqueror, Wargaming posted a bunch of stats they were looking at and they were looking at how Conqueror players performed in other t10 battleships. So they obviously look at  how it compares to other ships of players that are using it. A premium ship might have better stats because only good players bought it. They might not be performing any better in it than they would in a comparable ship. But if overall everyone is overperforming in it than they normally do, then it shows its got some obvious OPness

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1 minute ago, Ducky_shot said:

I know when they looked at the Conqueror, Wargaming posted a bunch of stats they were looking at and they were looking at how Conqueror players performed in other t10 battleships.

They looked at the top% and the bottom% of Conq users compared to the SAME users abilities in the other T10's, which is a pretty good way to judge ability (taking player skill out of the equation by holding it constant).

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A ship is OP when it gives players of all skill levels a boost in winrate. A ship is OP when a scrub can expect to win more as well as a unicum.

A ship is not OP when a scrub does just as bad in it as any other, but a unicum gets a significant boost to WR.

Let's take two theoretical examples:

A ship in which a 45% player wins 45% and a 65% player wins 75% averages 5% higher than the average, but isn't considered OP. It's just a ship with a high skill floor and skill ceiling that needs a skilled hand driving it to make itself count.

A ship in which a 45% player wins 50% and a 65% player wins 70% averages 5% higher than the average, and is considerec OP because it gives players across the spectrum a boost in winrate, thus is flat-out better than its counterparts.

At least, that's my theory.

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I believe a good player playing an average ship will win more against a poor player playing an OP ship.  Obviously, a good player playing an OP ship will win even more decisively playing against a poor playing an average ship.  This can complicate the OP determination process.

 

Another complication is identifying the player base for certain ships, which begs the following question:  Are players good because of the ship....or is the ship good because of the players?  in many regards, it is difficult to divorce the one from the other.  

 

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Lert said:

A ship is OP when it gives players of all skill levels a boost in winrate. A ship is OP when a scrub can expect to win more as well as a unicum.

A ship is not OP when a scrub does just as bad in it as any other, but a unicum gets a significant boost to WR.

Let's take two theoretical examples:

A ship in which a 45% player wins 45% and a 65% player wins 75% averages 5% higher than the average, but isn't considered OP. It's just a ship with a high skill floor and skill ceiling that needs a skilled hand driving it to make itself count.

A ship in which a 45% player wins 50% and a 65% player wins 70% averages 5% higher than the average, and is considerec OP because it gives players across the spectrum a boost in winrate, thus is flat-out better.

 

So in other words if it gives a boost to the 20-40% percentile player a 5% percent higher than average W/R a ship would be suspect of being OP because of the low skill floor?

 

So, by that measure, the Belfast and Kutuzov would be considered OP then?

 

What about the Perth?

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2 minutes ago, Soshi_Sone said:

Are players good because of the ship....or is the ship good because of the players?  in many regards, it is difficult to divorce the one from the other. 

 

A theological question. Kinda like the chicken and the egg question.

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Win rate is not a real metric for measuring performance. It's all random. Therefore there are no such thing as OP ships in terms of win rate. 

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6 minutes ago, Soshi_Sone said:

I believe a good player playing an average ship will win more against a poor player playing an OP ship.

This sums it up quite well.

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1 minute ago, Bill_Halsey said:

So in other words if it gives a boost to the 20-40% percentile player a 5% percent higher than average W/R a ship would be suspect of being OP because of the low skill floor?

We can only guess. WG has access to a lot more metrics than we do, including player overall performance level, targeting behaviour, etc. We can only guesstimate.

4 minutes ago, Soshi_Sone said:

Are players good because of the ship....or is the ship good because of the players?  in many regards, it is difficult to divorce the one from the other. 

Depends on the ship. Nikolai is pure and simply too powerful for its tier, regardless of player skill. On the other extreme are ships like Flint which are strong, but it's the players driving them that ramp up the ship's performance level.

The most egregious example is the Alabama. Look up the Alabama and the Alabama ST on warships.today. They are the exact same ship, gameplay-wise.

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4 minutes ago, Bill_Halsey said:

 

A theological question. Kinda like the chicken and the egg question.

It really isn't. That's why WGing looked at the bottom and top % of players in a particular ship, and compares that against the same players' stats in other ships. It takes the individual out of the equation.

Put another way, if you have 50% ratio, and consistently all your ships are +-1% off of that, but then one ship you have a 75% WR in, that's an anomaly and should be investigated.

Edited by _RC1138

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1 hour ago, Bill_Halsey said:

 

A theological philosophical question. Kinda like the chicken and the egg question.

Fixed that for you.  It is not "theological" until it gets to "god-level" of OP.  :Smile_teethhappy:

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Pick your "OP":

 

BBs:

OMG A CV/DD IS MADE FOR KILL ME! THATS SO OP PLZ NERF

CLs:

OMG A BB IS MADE FOR KILL ME! THATS SO OP PLZ NERF

DDs:

OMG A CV/CL IS MADE FOR KILL ME! THATS SO OP PLZ NERF

CV:

F**K AAs IS MADE FOR KILL MY PLANES! THATS SO OP PLZ NERF

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2 minutes ago, HyenaHiena said:

Pick your "OP":

 

BBs:

OMG A CV/DD IS MADE FOR KILL ME! THATS SO OP PLZ NERF

CLs:

OMG A BB IS MADE FOR KILL ME! THATS SO OP PLZ NERF

DDs:

OMG A CV/CL IS MADE FOR KILL ME! THATS SO OP PLZ NERF

CV:

F**K AAs IS MADE FOR KILL MY PLANES! THATS SO OP PLZ NERF

But see other than the BB, that's not what people generally complain about. It isn't a DD complaining about CL's or CV's killing them and claiming them OP, it's when a BB kills them they scream murder for BB nerfs. Or when a DD get's radar to shoot out of smoke, largely negating CL/CA advantages that CL/CA players cry fowl. Or a CV finding a DD's AA disproportionately powerful. It's when things buck expectations that OP starts to factor in.

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1 hour ago, _RC1138 said:

You can't, because OP is defined, in most cases, as an object, in this case ship, that disproportionately unbalances 1 on 1 combat from the expected norm, especially outside of the expect 'comfort' zone. For example, it is *expected* that a CA should always lose 1 on 1 with a BB, but a CA that is capable of easily trouncing a BB, either with smoke fire + radar + HE rain (Belfast, and I have one, and it is MOST CERTAINTY overpowered), long range, fast, fast reloading torps, or things of that ilk. Likewise a BB that is disproportionately balanced against a DD is overpowered on the basis it isn't SUPPOSED to be. Or a CV with a wacky drop pattern that is punishing to a CA (their natural counter). These are what make ships overpowered. Not win ratio which is subject to the rest of the team, but rather it's ability to carry itself through a fight its not 'supposed' to win.

 

As such I would argue K/D is a better indicator of a particular ship's overpowered-ness as that is in stark terms how much more often it kills than is killed. Even Average damage doesn't tell the whole story as, IMO, the Kidd is Overpowered, but only as a DD hunter, so it's total damages will not peak high, but it's effect in a 1on1 showdown vs. another DD is felt in nearly all cases (few ships punch up as well as the Kidd, taking on a gearing is child's play in a Kidd).

well said couldn't agree with you more

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1 hour ago, Bill_Halsey said:

 

A theological question. Kinda like the chicken and the egg question.

Except we've known the answer to that question ever since the time of Darwin.  The egg came first, it's basic evolutionary science.  

Edited by yashma

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2 hours ago, Feminist said:

Win rate is not a real metric for measuring performance. It's all random. Therefore there are no such thing as OP ships in terms of win rate. 

Whaayt ? The very large amount of data from many players in independent battles (mostly) ensures that the Win Rate parameter accurately indicates the statistical bell shaped curve with the median (or center) at the single Win Rate # value, along the X axis. Too small a sample size (proportional to the confidence interval) would indicate data that was not large enough sample size to state the Win Rate likelihood (chance).

Edited by Ericson38
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OP?  Hard to quantify as the discussions have leaned towards, but to me OP is something that gives and almost unfair advantage to WHOEVER drives it.   In tanks its a light tank that bounces heavy tank shells with impunity (and of course a better player uses this advantage....better!)  In ships it could be the same thing, a DD that has a 5.2 detection at tier 5, where most if not all T5s have little in the way of aids to detect such a ship, but in a tier 10 battle the 5.2 detection mean much less because radar detects it the same as a ship sitting at 5.8.  So its just not the ship, but the ship at a certain tier.  Comparison to the ships of the same tier is a must.  Like previously stated, a Belfast that can smoke AND radar is considered OP since no other ship does this, though I don't find the Belfast OP at all due to lack of torps, I sold mine. BUT a Belfast with another Belfast or two in a division is VERY OP... so a lot can go into these discussions.  Armor?  The Nic (T4 Russian BB) is considered OP since its armor is very good for that tier and its guns are not slouches either.    I don't think a ship being a Premium makes it OP, since some Premiums are not that good at all, and a lot of "new" players tend to buy premiums that are many tiers too good for them, and they fail at a higher rate than a seasoned player buying one.   Like one poster said...you kinda know an OP ship when you see one or play on.  But seriously, OP in this game is not as bad as OP in tanks ... so many ways to die in ships :)

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