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NotSynpax

The real reason for the WoWs decline

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37 minutes ago, NotSynpax said:

 

Yeah, I just made up all the people I played with quitting when it stopped. Me and my crazy imagination. 

 

 

https://stats.wotapi.ru/stats/wows/na/total

Lol.  So the game is holding steady, though not quite as high as beta or launch.  But steady.  OMG GUISE IT'S DYING!!!!1111oneoneoneoneoneoneoneone

 

Go away, Chicken Little.

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6 minutes ago, Azemboz said:

Let me guess, you think Jesus was real too.

 

the only thing you accomplish by bringing religion into it is a possible forum ban.

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Just now, pmgaudio said:

28 or so people quitting and hundreds of people each week joining....
Yeah what a shame....

 

How can you people act like player retention isn't a problem with this title?

 

How is 500 people quitting justified by 500 people joining? Isn't it better for the game if even half of those quitters are retained instead? This churn is largely driven by frustrating balance decisions and game mechanics implemented by the developers, after all. This is 100% a fixable issue, what baffles me is the large number of people who say it's not a problem.

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8 minutes ago, AraAragami said:

And last I checked the population was lower this summer than last summer at around the same time.

July 2016 averaged 6860

July 2017 7097

 

 

 

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Just now, LordBenjamin said:

July 2016 averaged 6860

July 2017 7097

 

Here I was comparing august, silly me.

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8 minutes ago, AraAragami said:

 

Here I was comparing august, silly me.

So you'd like to compare the month that the German Battleship line was released with this month in which nothing special happened so far?

Sounds fair but then I'd like to counter in a couple weeks when the British line is out and compare that month with it's 2016 month as proof that the game has found fresh new legs and is super popular now, etc etc and it's found a bold new upward direction, etc.

If you compare the month preceding the BB line release it's less average people for that month than the equivalent dates this year.

Edited by LordBenjamin

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6 minutes ago, AraAragami said:

 

Here I was comparing august, silly me.

 

August isn't over.

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August 2015 average: 8710

August 2016 average: 7551

August 2017 average: 6848

 

Sure looks like a warning sign to me.

 

Note I'm not claiming the game is on the verge of death.

 

I'm merely pointing out that there is a problem with churn. Losses are currently higher than gains.

Edited by AraAragami

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54 minutes ago, NotSynpax said:

 

Yeah, I just made up all the people I played with quitting when it stopped. Me and my crazy imagination. 

 

 

https://stats.wotapi.ru/stats/wows/na/total

 

Gee wiz, the stats sure seem to suggest something other than what your're saying. 

Great to see the game growing again.

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19 minutes ago, AraAragami said:

 

How can you people act like player retention isn't a problem with this title?

 

How is 500 people quitting justified by 500 people joining? Isn't it better for the game if even half of those quitters are retained instead? This churn is largely driven by frustrating balance decisions and game mechanics implemented by the developers, after all. This is 100% a fixable issue, what baffles me is the large number of people who say it's not a problem.

 

A free to play game has plenty of turn over.  The stats page that the guy linked shows that while the game has declined in numbers, it is still doing very well.  You'll get bunches of new people, and they'll slowly bleed away as players realize the game's not for them.  A bunch of those new people will stay.  Some older folks will leave.  Some who have left will return.  Course, that's just the NA server.

 

We're not going to take someone seriously who says, oh, my whole clan of 30 people don't play any more for reasons, and this is proof that the game is dying.  And then they link a page that shows the game's population is fairly steady.  Anecdotal evidence isn't proof of anything, it's simply confirmation bias: My friends left, so yep the game is dying.

 

Go take a look at the MMO granddaddy: World of Warcraft.  You'll see that its population did the same thing, declined, new content causes an uptick in population, decline again, new content causes a rise in population, decline again, new content causes a rise in population...  It has done this for more than a decade.  And the whole way through, the doom'n'gloomers said the game is dead, oh look here comes the wow killer ... woops, guess not, here's the real wow killer... woops, okay, this one...

 

WoWs is dead, we all have flying cars and work in paperless offices... oh wait, all things people have said would come true but haven't.

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2 minutes ago, AraAragami said:

August 2015 average: 8710

August 2016 average: 7551

August 2017 average: 6848

 

Sure looks like a warning sign to me.

 

Note I'm not claiming the game is on the verge of death.

 

I'm merely pointing out that there is a problem with churn. Losses are currently higher than gains.

 

August is not over yet.  RN battleships should arrive on the 31st.  If August 2017 ends up within 200 average of 2016, will you still say that it's a warning?

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1 minute ago, Gasboy said:

 

A free to play game has plenty of turn over.  The stats page that the guy linked shows that while the game has declined in numbers, it is still doing very well.  You'll get bunches of new people, and they'll slowly bleed away as players realize the game's not for them.  A bunch of those new people will stay.  Some older folks will leave.  Some who have left will return.  Course, that's just the NA server.

 

We're not going to take someone seriously who says, oh, my whole clan of 30 people don't play any more for reasons, and this is proof that the game is dying.  And then they link a page that shows the game's population is fairly steady.  Anecdotal evidence isn't proof of anything, it's simply confirmation bias: My friends left, so yep the game is dying.

 

Go take a look at the MMO granddaddy: World of Warcraft.  You'll see that it's population did the same thing, declined, new content causes an uptick in population, decline again, new content causes a rise in population, decline again, new content causes a rise in population...  It has done this for more than a decade.  And the whole way through, the doom'n'gloomers said the game is dead, oh look here comes the wow killer ... woops, guess not, here's the real wow killer... woops, okay, this one...

 

WoWs is dead, we're all have flying cars and work in paperless offices... oh wait, all things people have said were true but aren't.

I'm aware.

 

The problem is WoWS' churn is higher than it should be. Even WG staff admits this. How buried in the sand is your head that you can ignore the game's own developers admitting they have problems with player retention?

Edited by AraAragami

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2 minutes ago, AraAragami said:

August 2015 average: 8710

August 2016 average: 7551

August 2017 average: 6848

 

Sure looks like a warning sign to me.

 

Note I'm not claiming the game is on the verge of death.

 

I'm merely pointing out that there is a problem with churn. Losses are currently higher than gains.

But if you're going to analyze the numbers you have to also look at other possible causes of those numbers being what they are.   Like Aug2015 was everyone's first taste of open beta.   Aug2016 was the German BB line introduction.  Aug2017 so far hasn't had a whole lot. 

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5 minutes ago, AraAragami said:

I'm aware.

 

The problem is WoWS' churn is higher than it should be. Even WG staff admits this. How buried in the sand is your head that you can ignore the game's own developers admitting they have problems with player retention?

 

CItation needed.

 

Also, that stats page does not indicate a really bad player retention.  Maybe you mean the player turn over is higher than WG WANTS it to be, which is entirely different from what you said.

 

EDIT: I mean, if you look at it, it follows the same pattern through TWO years.  And the month by month numbers are not that far off from each other.  I mean, the high for the last six months was 3k off the high for the first six months or so (13kish compared to 16kish).

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24 minutes ago, MidnightShamalan said:

 

the only thing you accomplish by bringing religion into it is a possible forum ban.

I'm just saying people that think anecdotes are evidence are usually kinda stupid when it comes to epistemology.

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6 minutes ago, Gasboy said:

CItation needed.

 

https://thearmoredpatrol.com/2017/03/07/wargaming-ceo-accepts-blame-vows-renewed-focus-on-world-of-tanks/

 

Relevant quote:

Quote

When Warships launched in 2015 the game got lots of good buzz, including here at Polygon. Our preview called is one of the best free-to-play games we’d ever played. But the community did not stick around to support it after launch. Player retention trailed off, Kislyi said, after six months to a year.

 

The company knows something you're refusing to acknowledge.

Edited by AraAragami

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2 minutes ago, Azemboz said:

I'm just saying people that think anecdotes are evidence are usually kinda stupid when it comes to epistemology.

And people who wish to inject the historicity of a person named Jesus who religious beliefs developed around into a discussion of botes is more or less daft than those who put too much faith in anecdotal evidence?

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Player retention has always been a regular discussion here. WG has even mentioned more than once.

 

All of those posts overwhelming lean towards a decline. Data is shown to prove it, yet there's "always" a reason that it's wrong.

 

Later down the road, those same peeps us the same data to prove one of "their" points in another thread.  Seems kinda fishy to me.

 

I won't even mention I see some that only post on "hot button" issues such as this. Bout the only time they post.

 

 

 

Edited by Wulfgarn

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2 minutes ago, AraAragami said:

 Okay, but he was talking about a YEAR ago.  Did you see the numbers from last year and this year?  They're pretty close.  It's not a doom and gloom scenario like the OP is talking about.

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Just now, Gasboy said:

 Okay, but he was talking about a YEAR ago.  Did you see the numbers from last year and this year?  They're pretty close.  It's not a doom and gloom scenario like the OP is talking about.

They're pretty close. I won't deny that.

 

But this year's numbers are still lower than last year's. The fact that they're close doesn't change this.

 

Neither does the date the statement was made. Since it was a statement about an ongoing issue.

 

Gonna make up another excuse?

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21 minutes ago, AraAragami said:

August 2015 average: 8710

August 2016 average: 7551

August 2017 average: 6848

 

Sure looks like a warning sign to me.

 

Note I'm not claiming the game is on the verge of death.

 

I'm merely pointing out that there is a problem with churn. Losses are currently higher than gains.

Many players are still getting connection errors from server ever since last update which would be good reason for less players this month.

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4 minutes ago, Wulfgarn said:

Player retention has always been a regular discussion here. WG has even mentioned more than once.

 

All of those posts overwhelming lean towards a decline. Data is shown to prove it, yet there's "always" a reason that it's wrong.

 

Later down the road, those same peeps us the same data to prove one of "their" points in another thread.  Seems kinda fishy to me.

 

I won't even mention I see some that only post on "hot button" issues such as this. Bout the only time they post.

 

 

 

 

No one can argue that the numbers decline.  They always do, over time.  It's how fast they decline that is important.

Games that see regular upswings with new content introduced are the ones that survive for the longest.

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7 minutes ago, LordBenjamin said:

And people who wish to inject the historicity of a person named Jesus who religious beliefs developed around into a discussion of botes is more or less daft than those who put too much faith in anecdotal evidence?

Or they're trolling, having not played the game in months.

 

You should see the raging, spittle filled PM I got from Lord Ban hammer or whatever his dumb name is.

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Just now, AraAragami said:

They're pretty close. I won't deny that.

 

But this year's numbers are still lower than last year's. The fact that they're close doesn't change this.

 

Neither does the date the statement was made. Since it was a statement about an ongoing issue.

 

Gonna make up another excuse?

 

Excuse?  What I was suggesting is that what he said in March of this year was about the situation from 2015-2016.  Ask him now what he thinks about this year, which is not what he was discussing in that topic.  Obviously no company would like lower numbers, but simply staying relatively stable is something companies want.

 

And yeah, the numbers are lower.  Obviously the game is dead, right?  Right?

 

The numbers follow similar patterns that all games have.  Compare WoWs to Mechwarrior Online's numbers, and you can see a game that's having a bad time.  The numbers that MWO feebly puts up are an indicator of a game that is in trouble.  Compared to that, WoWs is stable.

 

I am not denying that player retention is important.

 

I am denying that the game is dying because some guy and his 29 other friends stopped playing for reasons.

 

If you see the numbers drop off like that glitchy spot in that link, and they don't come back up again, then I'll be concerned about the game's health.

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