Another horse beating... why skill-based MM won't work well in Random Games

[Zorwinn100]

I have read a number of posts insisting WG implement a skill-based Match Maker.  I think it is fine as it is.  Here is why:

 

Summary: Skill-based MM could work in team mode, where you have the same players in every battle.  It will not work well over the long term in Random Games where you have different players in each battle.  The way other games solve this challenge is to segment the player base into "skill levels," but Warships player base is too small to make skill levels practical because higher skilled players would get less play time... they would sit in queue for long waits.

 

Details:

• Skill-based MM will put higher win rate % players with lower win rate % players to balance teams.  The outcome will push entire player population toward 50% win rate.
• If MM weighs other stats beside win rate, they must be correlated with win rate or they are worthless for the purpose of a skill-based MM.  So even a skill-based MM working off proxy metrics correlated with win rate will still push the entire population toward 50% win rate.
• Once the player base is all at around 50% win rate, the skill based MM will fall apart, because every player will hover around 50% and you will effectively have random team assignments again.
• Skill-based MMs are generally based either on individual competition instead of team competition, or use consistent teams.  They typically fall apart if you try to rank individual players on random teams that change from match to match.
• The solution League of Legends (and other games) uses to the above problem is to have "tiers of competition."  But LoL has a player base of millions and so is able to do it effectively.  Warships does not have such a big player base - so tiers of competition are not practical because it will increase queue times, especially for better players.
• Instead - WG uses ship tiers as a proxy for tiers of competition.  If the tier you are playing has too long a wait time, you can shift to a different tier to play.

 

Post script: some have posted that it seems "team collapses" happen more frequently than before.  Until someone posts hard data on this topic, it is only anecdotal evidence and probably reflects confirmation bias.  WG likely has the data on this and if it is really a problem I am sure they will take a look at it.

[Kapitan_Wuff]

[Zorwinn100]

Yes, I am eating popcorn too.

[anonym_OlK73e329bMY]

But worst of all.. it's stressful. (๑ˊ▵ॢˋ̥๑)

 

Weak idiots like me don't handle that stress very well..

[Taichunger]

I have read a number of posts insisting WG implement a skill-based Match Maker.  I think it is fine as it is.  Here is why:

.....

Post script: some have posted that it seems "team collapses" happen more frequently than before.  Until someone posts hard data on this topic, it is only anecdotal evidence and probably reflects confirmation bias.  WG likely has the data on this and if it is really a problem I am sure they will take a look at it.

 

Collapses are only a problem for the players. They are not a problem for WG, which wants games to go by quickly.

 

I agree with your main point, however. A Skill-based MM would result in much quicker games and more collapses. In fact I wonder now whether that is a factor in the constant dull collapses at the high tiers.

 

I recorded the duration of 500 games to see how CVs affect game duration, but I also checked the game duration of ships in which I was good against ships in which I suck. Games I enter in ships I play well are much shorter. So I wonder what would happen if everyone was in a ship they play well... probably very quick collapses essentially won by whoever RNG decided to award citadels to.

[Teahee]

 

Yes, I am eating popcorn too.

 

[madgiecool]

 

 

 

Yes, I am eating popcorn too.

 

 

[anonym_OlK73e329bMY]

Remember to brush your teeth before going to sleep, everyone..

[inktomi19d]

I have read a number of posts insisting WG implement a skill-based Match Maker.  I think it is fine as it is.  Here is why:

 

Summary: Skill-based MM could work in team mode, where you have the same players in every battle.  It will not work well over the long term in Random Games where you have different players in each battle.  The way other games solve this challenge is to segment the player base into "skill levels," but Warships player base is too small to make skill levels practical because higher skilled players would get less play time... they would sit in queue for long waits.

 

Details:

• Skill-based MM will put higher win rate % players with lower win rate % players to balance teams.  The outcome will push entire player population toward 50% win rate.
• If MM weighs other stats beside win rate, they must be correlated with win rate or they are worthless for the purpose of a skill-based MM.  So even a skill-based MM working off proxy metrics correlated with win rate will still push the entire population toward 50% win rate.
• Once the player base is all at around 50% win rate, the skill based MM will fall apart, because every player will hover around 50% and you will effectively have random team assignments again.
• Skill-based MMs are generally based either on individual competition instead of team competition, or use consistent teams.  They typically fall apart if you try to rank individual players on random teams that change from match to match.
• The solution League of Legends (and other games) uses to the above problem is to have "tiers of competition."  But LoL has a player base of millions and so is able to do it effectively.  Warships does not have such a big player base - so tiers of competition are not practical because it will increase queue times, especially for better players.
• Instead - WG uses ship tiers as a proxy for tiers of competition.  If the tier you are playing has too long a wait time, you can shift to a different tier to play.

 

Post script: some have posted that it seems "team collapses" happen more frequently than before.  Until someone posts hard data on this topic, it is only anecdotal evidence and probably reflects confirmation bias.  WG likely has the data on this and if it is really a problem I am sure they will take a look at it.

 

It’s not just LoL. Vainglory does it, and that’s a mobile MOBA (much smaller player base). They avoid stupid-long queues by mixing the skill tiers a little and evening them out. They also award players more for winning while they are bottom tier, and less for winning when they are top tier. Also, no one gets penalized for a loss when someone AFKs, though the winners still advance. 

 

What’s really stopping WG from skill-based MM is WG — they aren’t a company that makes subtle changes. WoWS also really isn’t an esport, so it’s missing a lot of the balance and predictability that a competitive game needs, making it hard to really judge player skill. Are they skilled, or were they just in a whatever the meta was at the time? Honestly, I don’t think WG even wants matches to be competitive. I’m not saying that they don’t make a fun game, but when a game is designed from the start to be competitive, it has to be easier to figure for player skill.

[SPACEDUDE71]

Skill based mm would only make everyone more a 50% player.

 

[Kevs02Accord]

I don't think you guys realize how a skill based MM would work. The game wouldn't / shouldn't be matching people based on WR alone, that is a poor metric of actual skill when used alone. What should happen is a combination of metrics to achieve an actual skill score, like WTR for example. Then the MM would have divided "Tiers" of skill. For example WTR 0-500 is one tier, WTR 501-900 is another, and so on. The end result is you will be playing with / against people of equal skill. Yes then everyone's WR should hover around 50%. However, that 50% is against people of equal skill, not everyone. For example someone with a WTR of 2500 and 50% WR is not the same as some one with WTR 900 and 50% WR. Those two players will / should always be separated.

 

I believe this is how all online games should work. However, I find it highly unlikely WG will ever do this. The reason being, they have backed themselves into a corner with Tiers of ships. Can you imagine the wait times if each tier / tiers of ships had a subset of tiers based on skill? The only way I see you could have skilled based MM and the current tiers of ships is if you had a huge number of players, maybe 10x the current players we have now.

[Soshi_Sone]

• Once the player base is all at around 50% win rate, the skill based MM will fall apart, because every player will hover around 50% and you will effectively have random team assignments again.

 

^^^this^^^

 

[vak_]

 

^^^this^^^

 

 

It's actually not correct for two reasons:

1) MM would look at recent win/lose performance and use that to slightly adjust skill brackets. 

2) You don't have to use win rate per se, there is ELO for example (yeah, it's best for 1v1 games, but LoL uses it just fine).