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DOCTOR_CITADEL

Divisions in WoWS: Facts and Fiction

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I originally posted this theory in this thread from yesterday. I doubt many will ever see it in the bowels of that thread and I'm curious what you guys think on the subject. How close or how far from the mark do you guys think this theory is? Run the numbers and see if it applies to your personal experiences as well. 

 

Here it is:

 

DIVISIONS: FACTS AND FICTION

 

I'm a numbers guy and I have a theory... 

  • High damage numbers are good
  • Personal achievements are good
  • Securing caps is good
  • Securing kills is good.
  • Defending your base is good.

All of these are hallmarks of what good players do. But why? What's the end game? What's the focus? What's the point of it all? To win games of course, and have fun doing it! 


Champion football teams go to the playoffs, they get trophies and rings if they win, and they get the satisfaction of success. The losers of the same matches can brag about how many yards they got, how many tackles, etc... but what does it matter if they lost?

 

The theory I have, supported by looking at many, many, player's profiles is this:

  • Whatever a player's W/R is over 50% will stack with other player's W/Rs over 50% when they division +/- up to a ~30%(teamwork modifier).

 

Example:

  • (3) 60% W/R players get into a 3-man division. Each player influences about 10% of their solo matches (above 50%) in such a way that the games are won through their direct contributions. 10%(W/R) x 3(players in a div) = ~30%(additional W/R). Take that 30%(additional W/R) and tack it back onto the base 50%(W/R) and these players are winning about 80% of their games in a 3-man division.
  • Now, the +/- ~30%(teamwork modifier) comes into play. Depending on how well these players work together, a division can get a teamwork bonus or a teamwork deduction modifier applied to their 30%(additional W/R). I have seen both situations happen.
  • If the players in a division work well together, you can see up to a ~+30%(teamwork modifier) or if they work poorly together a ~-30%(teamwork modifier). It is possible for players to change the way that they play when they are in a division that further enhances or negatively impacts their normal play. 
  • Final numbers. 
    • Positive teamwork modifier: 3(60% W/R players) = 30% (additional W/R bonus)          30%(additional W/R bonus) x +30%(positive teamwork modifier) = 39%(additional W/R bonus)             Base 50% W/R + 39%(additional W/R bonus) = ~89% W/R for the 3-man division
    • Negative teamwork modifier: 3(60% W/R players) = 30% (additional W/R bonus)         30%(additional W/R bonus) x -30%(negative teamwork modifier) = 21%(additional W/R bonus)          Base 50% W/R + 21%(additional W/R bonus) = ~71% W/R for the 3-man division

 

Notice the huge swing in numbers between the positive and negative teamwork modifiers. Teamwork, as always, is the key to success. Again, this is not an exact science. These are numbers and approximations I've deducted and concluded from my own observations. I would also like to note that the +/- (teamwork modifier) is up to a maximum of around 30%, not necessarily the full 30%. This number is a benchmark, from my observations, that seems to fit most situations. It really all does come down to how the players in a division work together. There are rare situations where the 30%(teamwork modifier) can be exceeded, both in a +/- fashion, but these are exceptions and not the rule.

 

In conclusion, you can use the same setup and formula to approximate the success that you will have in a division if you choose to participate in the dastardly activity of playing with your friends and clan members. A further note that I'd like to make is that, while division-mates choose who they play with, and therefore, somewhat improve their odds, there are 9 other members on the team who also influence games. In the grand scheme of things, we all are entered into the Random Battles pool. Eventually, numbers normalize over hundreds and thousands of games, and where you are as a player shows; whether you spend all of your time in a division, all of your time solo, or a mix between the two. 

 

The formula I presented here is not the end all, be all, gospel formula. It is not a magic recipe. The same hypothetical players in the above example would still affect games significantly even if they did nothing but play solo. The real point I'm trying to make is that everyone has the same opportunities. Everyone chooses who they play with and who their friends are, both in-game and out of it. If you really want to improve in-game, find some friends or players that are better than you and ask them to help you. A willingness to learn will get you a lot farther than persecuting those that have already taken the path of improvement before you.

 

 

 

Disclaimer: there are some solo players out there that can pull some sick W/R numbers by themselves, no division required. These are the outliers. They don't fit into any formula that I've come up with. They were either born shootie bote prodigies or something more sinister is going on... Hopefully the former!

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Just tell your clan members stop doing Three Belfast platoons, Three Khabarovsk platoons, Flint-Lanta-Lanta platoons and everybody's fine. :trollface:
 

On a more serious note, that's quite an interesting analysis and a nice write up too! +1

Edited by The_first_harbinger
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It's good to see some numbers behind this.

 

I'm always solo and have only divisioned up a few times because it was needed for rewards in an event.

 

Interesting post.:honoring:

Edited by Wulfgarn

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Just tell your clan members stop doing Three Belfast platoons, Three Khabarovsk platoons, Flint-Lanta-Lanta platoons and everybody's fine. :trollface:

 

On a more serious note, that's quite an interesting analysis and a nice write up too! +1

 

Spreading cancer throughout the land! :P

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All division does is bring down my stats.

 

Must follow the path of the solo! 

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some solo players out there that can pull some sick W/R numbers by themselves, no division required. These are the outliers. They don't fit into any formula that I've come up with. They were either born shootie bote prodigies or something more sinister is going on... Hopefully the former!

*blushes*

 

Oh, doc, you finally realize I'm a spawn of Satan. I'm so embarrassed!

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*blushes*

 

Oh, doc, you finally realize I'm a spawn of Satan. I'm so embarrassed!

 

"Low-tier seal-clubbing excluded"

 

Ok, now that that's fixed, all is right in the world. :great:

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"Low-tier seal-clubbing excluded"

 

Ok, now that that's fixed. :great:

No difference found.

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Good write-up +1.
 

However for a Facts and Fiction it is fairly weak on the fiction.  Was expecting an equation for having the Beasty of War as a variable.

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All division does is bring down my stats.

 

Must follow the path of the solo! 

 

Then you are divisioning with the wrong people. Granted, 3 good players in a division means less personal damage numbers some of the time, but it shouldn't bring down your stats that much.

 

Me personally? I would rather division up. It is more fun talking with folks on Teamspeak and playing than just solo play.

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Good explanation. Win rate confirmed too...divisions work.

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Good write-up +1.

 

However for a Facts and Fiction it is fairly weak on the fiction.  Was expecting an equation for having the Beasty of War as a variable.

 

Fair point.

 

The "fiction" portion was the assumption that many players have that being in a division "automatically" gives them a massive advantage. I didn't spell it out exactly because I feel like it's a widespread assumption.

 

The "fact" portion was the attempt to explain that, while being in a division "can" give you a massive advantage, there is more to the story than that.

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Fair point.

 

The "fiction" portion was the assumption that many players have that being in a division "automatically" gives them a massive advantage. I didn't spell it out exactly because I feel like it's a wide assumption.

 

The "fact" portion was the attempt to explain that, being in a division does give a massive advantage to a small group of players.

 

FTFY

 

Facts, fun and fiction.....

Divisions are an exploit provided by WG to keep a certain element in the game and spending money, nothing more.

And all your facts prove that. 

Must be sad to play a game where your primary goal is to beat up on less competent players, because you don't want any real competition...

 

Perhaps you should be asking why WG has not provided an actual organized team based mode.....:hmm:

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Must be sad to play a game where your primary goal is to beat up on less competent players, because you don't want any real competition...

 

Are you suggesting OPG should restrict their own division play because they are simply too good for everyone else?

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FTFY

 

Facts, fun and fiction.....

Divisions are an exploit provided by WG to keep a certain element in the game and spending money, nothing more.

And all your facts prove that. 

Must be sad to play a game where your primary goal is to beat up on less competent players, because you don't want any real competition...

 

Perhaps you should be asking why WG has not provided an actual organized team based mode.....:hmm:

 

Oh boy... here we go. 

 

  • So, because some players took the time to learn, improve themselves, and become better players, they aren't allowed to play the same game you are in the manner that they would like to play it?
  • Everyone has the same opportunity to division. Even if it can provide an advantage, it's in the game, it's not going anywhere, and *gasp* you can do the same.
  • Divisions provide the only team-based element in the game right now. Until WG puts something else in, it's the only official option for players that want to play with their friends or clan-mates.
  • I was once a 48% W/R player. I'm taken aback by your prejudice. I've experienced the game from the lowest point all the way to where I am now and I still have much to learn. Maybe you should do the same.

 

How about you drop the persecution based on the fact that others have spent the time to learn the game, excelled, and enjoy the company of other human beings while they play the same game that you do. 

e5801f972294c1f0ebb17ddaf8ee487e.jpg

 

I'm simply providing information on a subject that I think everyone could benefit from. If your reaction is to lash out and attack, then maybe you need to reexamine yourself.

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FTFY

 

Facts, fun and fiction.....

Divisions are an exploit provided by WG to keep a certain element in the game and spending money, nothing more.

And all your facts prove that. 

Must be sad to play a game where your primary goal is to beat up on less competent players, because you don't want any real competition...

 

Perhaps you should be asking why WG has not provided an actual organized team based mode.....:hmm:

 

Plot twist: divisions are available to 100% of the player base. 
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So would 3x 45% W/R Players drop their chance to win down to 30% ?:amazed:

 

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If a 3-man div has an 80% win rate, then you can't have a 3-man div on both teams more than 20% of the time unless I'm doing math wrong.

 

2 opposing teams can't both win 80% of the time, right?

 

 

I divisioned a little bit a while back but eventually I just couldn't be bothered:

Div Mate 1 - 'What ship should we play' - cue 20 mins of discussion about one guy only having a T5 or a T7 premium he doesn't like

Div Mate 2 - 'Now we've decided on ships I need to take about 15 minutes to get to the fridge and back!'

Div Mate 1 - 'Now Div Mate 2's back, I'm going to hit the head - I could have done this while Div Mate 2 was hitting the fridge, but I prefer we only play 1 game per hour'

 

In game - 'Mofton 'Detonation' after 4 minutes, div mates draw out the loss for the remaining 16 minutes

 

- 1 hour later, 4 minutes of gameplay.... yeah, divisions aren't for everyone. I'll take my chances solo and when I see 2x Fog or similar divisions top-tier on the other team.... oh well.

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The theory I have, supported by looking at many, many, player's profiles is this:

 

  • Whatever a player's W/R is over 50% will stack with other player's W/Rs over 50% when they division +/- up to a ~30%(teamwork modifier).

 

Example:

  • (3) 60% W/R players get into a 3-man division. Each player influences about 10% of their solo matches (above 50%) in such a way that the games are won through their direct contributions. 10%(W/R) x 3(players in a div) = ~30%(additional W/R). Take that 30%(additional W/R) and tack it back onto the base 50%(W/R) and these players are winning about 80% of their games in a 3-man division.
  • Now, the +/- ~30%(teamwork modifier) comes into play. Depending on how well these players work together, a division can get a teamwork bonus or a teamwork deduction modifier applied to their 30%(additional W/R). I have seen both situations happen.
  • If the players in a division work well together, you can see up to a ~+30%(teamwork modifier) or if they work poorly together a ~-30%(teamwork modifier). It is possible for players to change the way that they play when they are in a division that further enhances or negatively impacts their normal play. 
  • Final numbers. 
    • Positive teamwork modifier: 3(60% W/R players) = 30% (additional W/R bonus)          30%(additional W/R bonus) x +30%(positive teamwork modifier) = 39%(additional W/R bonus)             Base 50% W/R + 39%(additional W/R bonus) = ~89% W/R for the 3-man division
    • Negative teamwork modifier: 3(60% W/R players) = 30% (additional W/R bonus)         30%(additional W/R bonus) x -30%(negative teamwork modifier) = 21%(additional W/R bonus)          Base 50% W/R + 21%(additional W/R bonus) = ~71% W/R for the 3-man division

 

1) You have a hypothesis, not a theory. It's an important distinction. 

2) Your 30% claim seems dubious to me, given that you provide no real evidence that would validate it. Hypothetical scenarios are not evidence. 

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  • I was once a 48% W/R player. I'm taken aback by your prejudice. I've experienced the game from the lowest point all the way to where I am now and I still have much to learn. Maybe you should do the same.

This resonates so much with my own experience...I joined the game during OBT, with the release of German Cruisers and Soviet Destroyers. I started like the derp that charges right in and dies to IJN dd torps, the derp that dies immediately whenever gets peaked at by battleships, the derp that try to juke pointlessly behind islands like everyone else...

To think the long way I gone through...

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1) You have a hypothesis, not a theory. It's an important distinction. 

2) Your 30% claim seems dubious to me, given that you provide no real evidence that would validate it. Hypothetical scenarios are not evidence. 

 

You are correct. I once had this in mind as a "hypothesis." Now, after around 2 years of playing this game, it has been confirmed enough through my own personal investigation, and looking at hundreds of profiles over time, as a "theory" for me, and no longer a "hypothesis." Thus, I labeled the concept as a "theory." Thank you for the clarification, though. 

 

I also requested that others compare the concept against their own personal experiences to see if it further served to confirm or discredit the concept. This is called "crowd-sourced fact-gathering" and "confirmation of concept."

I can use terms as well. :hiding: 

 

Semantics aside, I would be curious to see if this concept aligns with your experience... or not.

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Doc, In your analysis you leave out a very vital piece of the puzzle.

 

Voice communication while in divisions. Many people division up with buddies so they can play the same game, but still have to type messages which is a huge disadvantage to real time voice, half the time the message typed isn't read as the others are to busy fighting ...or what not. It's a huge advantage to have two additional sets of eyes relaying messages instantaneously rather than typing.

 

Many divisions are just buddies playing together with the ships they have, I almost always see OPG's divisions strategy laid out with a dd, cruiser and bb, or my personal favorite from a week or so ago, the Sims, Fiji and Belfast. It was so comical as the Belfast and Fiji were never spotted or moved the entire match. the Sims would lay smoke then spot, Fiji and Belfast traded smoke and the Sims would come back and resmoke. the coordination with your divisions is stronger than at least 90% of all others.  

It's part of the game mechanics, and legal. Enjoy what you have put together.

Edited by Sweetsie

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Anecdotally, I looked at the average 2 week stats for solo - 3 man divisions from T7 - T10 and you see the difference in performance really start to scale. I think the unspoken factor to consider is how impactful ship specific traits become when you unlock T9/T10. Radar for one, being a big game changer (though Belfasts throw a curve ball in that).

 

What was striking is that the average win rate for solo in T7 was 52% versus 60% in a 3 man, an 8%-9% difference. In T10, solo win rates continue to drop (From T8 to T9 to T10) averaging 49% versus 3 mans were 62%, a difference of 13%. Player skill is a big factor, but I think coordinated team play has a much larger impact on how ships and their traits can perform in the tier meta than people realize.

Edited by ButtesVonToota

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So would 3x 45% W/R Players drop their chance to win down to 30% ?:amazed:

 

Conceivably.

 

Speaking strictly from numbers, not judgmentally, a 45% W/R lends credence to the fact that 5% of games are lost due to that player's very presence on a team.

 

I haven't really done extensive investigation on sub-50% W/R divisions. I'm not entirely certain that the concept in the OP will apply correctly here even though, logically, it should. There could be a totally different dynamic at work. I'm not sure if a division of 3 sub-50% W/R players would be a huge boost to their collective efforts or a further overall hindrance. Again, speaking strictly from numbers. My intent is not to belittle anyone here.

 

For example, going by my concept in the OP, a 3 man division of 45% W/R players would create a -15% W/R deficit (using 50% as a baseline). With the positive teamwork modifier, it could be reduced to -10.5% or go as low as -19.5% with a negative teamwork modifier.

 

Possible division W/R totals would be somewhere between 39.5% W/R and 30.5% W/R after applying the teamwork coefficient. I would like to think that sub-50% W/Rs would be able to perform better than this, using teamwork, but who knows? Again, I'm unsure if the concept will apply to sub-50% W/Rs without further investigation, although it could :ohmy:. For +50% W/Rs, however, I'm pretty confident that the concept explains quite a bit of what we see in divisions.

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I truly enjoy Divisioning with my friends on Discord. I have more fun with friends than solo play. I don't follow any numbers but your theory makes perfect sense. When I division we win more games than we lose. Those losses can be directly linked to poor team play as a whole. Being top three in those losses, with min. of two division members surviving the entire match. But this is not always the normal scenario. Yes My Division has  lost to superior Teams, out played out maneuvered and out gunned. That happens nothing you can do about it.

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