Lert's next 100 battle experiment, DD numbers

[Lert]

I started on a T6 MM experiment similar to my T5 one, but it's on hold now with the release of the French cruisers and upcoming premiums which will bias MM. That opens the door for another experiment that I've been thinking of doing.

 

Does an uneven number of DDs per side affect win chance?

 

Popular consensus is that the team with more DDs has an inherent advantage in any game mode where controlling capture points is a significant factor in the victory. Threads have been made asking for even DD MM, at least in Domination game scenario.

 

For this I will play 100 battles and keep track of any Domination battles with an uneven number of DDs per team, noting which team won.

 

"What tiers will you be playing?"

 

Any and all, T2 up. I favor mid to high tier battles though, most of my battles are between T5 and T8.

 

"Will these battles be solo like your T5 experiment?"

 

No. However, I will not track battles where there are more than 1 destroyer in my division. I believe this to be the upper limit of what I can do without biasing MM.

 

"Why only Domination battles?"

 

One may argue that an uneven number of DDs also affects standard battles, but if we want to show a clear tendency of DD numbers bias in a sample size of 100 matches, I believe tracking only Domination battles gives me the best environment.

 

"Will you be tracking server population like in your T5 experiment?"

 

No. This experiment is about the inter-team ratio of DDs. Not the total amount of DDs in queueueueue at any given time.

 

"Will you be tracking tier difference between DDs?"

 

No.

 

"What will this experiment prove?"

 

Prove? Nothing. 100 battles is too small a sample size to eliminate RNG and 'prove' anything. However, I believe it's enough to show a tendency. I intend to put some actual numbers behind the popular claim that "the team with more DDs wins the Domination match".

[Matthewl419]

Well, I wish you luck Lert.

 

Note to self, play T7 cruisers for awhile...

[Sink_Stuff]

Sorry Lert but I don't think that is a good test. Too many YOLO dd's at low tier. As well, some dd's are far better than other ones. Even if the data points to yes, it does have an effect, it would be so situational that it wouldn't even really be worth the results. 

 

If you really want to test something, use match making monitor and tell me how many active players at particular times of the day are purple verses red. In essence, what is the best time to play for solo verses division play? When are the purples on the most and when are the reds on the most? That is what I would like to know.

[ZaKazan]

I wish WG was transparent so people wouldn't have to go through all this tedious work.

[BrushWolf]

I feel that player skill is the factor that really tilts a match and this is independent of class numbers. Three potato DD's will lose against one really good and one average DD's. Another thing I have noticed that at least partially magnifies/negates player skill is one team being stacked with stealthy DD's and the other with rather unstealthy DD's. Good luck on this Lert.

[Lert]

I feel that player skill is the factor that really tilts a match and this is independent of class numbers. Three potato DD's will lose against one really good and one average DD's. Another thing I have noticed that at least partially magnifies/negates player skill is one team being stacked with stealthy DD's and the other with rather unstealthy DD's. Good luck on this Lert.

 

Both factors will be evened out with the sample size.

[Iris_]

This experiment may take a while due to mm variability. Good luck!

[BaronVonTom]

Sorry Lert but I don't think that is a good test. Too many YOLO dd's at low tier. As well, some dd's are far better than other ones. Even if the data points to yes, it does have an effect, it would be so situational that it wouldn't even really be worth the results. 

 

If you really want to test something, use match making monitor and tell me how many active players at particular times of the day are purple verses red. In essence, what is 

I agree  with Rounne, but would include the average win rate percentage for each side and which side had clan involvement as I would bet anything that the clans that division up have a huge advantage because of their knowledge of each others strengths and weaknesses.  I am not sure about the dd advantage,....ive seen battles where its been 5 vs 4  dd's and the 5 dd's are wiped out in less than 5 minutes.  I think the dd issue really boils down to skills.  But it will be interesting to see what you come up with.

[AVR_Project]

If there was any other objective, I'd say set up 100 training rooms with bots, and have yourself and a corresponding bot stationary.

..

Unfortunately, this is about taking objectives, intuition, whether or not the enemy team member is looking at you with RD, and the lot.

..

A true test would be two teams, using the same participants, same exact ships/equipment, same map/mission and alternate the extra DD back and forth to demonstrate the difference.

This can also be done in a training room, I think..

...

But if it's just about finding an excuse to got out and blow stuff up...   have fun.

[Terrible_Turtle]

Lert, you should just go work for WG. Your life would be a lot easier in terms of data analysis. 

[Lert]

Lert, you should just go work for WG. Your life would be a lot easier in terms of data analysis. 

 

Plus, I'd get paid. I'll sign for that.

 

All joking aside, this isn't a lot of work really. All I do is play the game as normal, and every now and then I'll note down a result.

 

I think the dd issue really boils down to skills.

 

Skill evens out in the 100 match sample size.

[Jiggiwatt]

Are you planning to keep track of additional data points to see if there are any other correlations? A few examples off the top of my head:

 

- Ratio of CL to DD

- DD tier disparity (for example, 3 vs 4 DD's however adding their tiers up gives a ratio of 20:22)

 

I am curious to know if you can come to some preliminary conclusions such as "The team with more DD's have a 3:2 chance of winning unless the CL ratio is in favor of the other team". Also, I am a bit concerned about your divisioning for this test, since a DD supported by an RN CL is liable to be more successful than one running solo.

[Lert]

Are you planning to keep track of additional data points to see if there are any other correlations?

 

No.

 

Also, I am a bit concerned about your divisioning for this test, since a DD supported by an RN CL is liable to be more successful than one running solo.

 

Such a division has just as much chance of happening on either team.

 

A note to anyone saying that I should do this or that and also keep track of such and such, you're entirely welcome to run your own experiment.

[Jiggiwatt]

A note to anyone saying that I should do this or that and also keep track of such and such, you're entirely welcome to run your own experiment.

 

Just making suggestions. Good luck with the experiment.

[VTAdmiral]

Here I thought you'd be tracking the number of destroyers per game to debunk the "every game is 12 destroyers" claims.