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Landing_Skipper

Ranked is like Blackjack

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After see-sawing for hours yesterday only to end down 1 star, I won 5 in a row this morning and got to 8.  I'm done for today!

 

It's just like poker or blackjack, the hardest thing to do - but the most essential - is to quit while you're ahead! :D

Edited by Landing_Skipper

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I don't quite know about that.  I would ride the great winning streak until until you lost one or perhaps 2 in a row, THEN call it a day.

 

 


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Eh, at least with blackjack you're the least at the dealer's mercy (relative to other games, at least).


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That is like Blackjack is why I'm considering no longer worrying about it.

 

Actually, the time of day is part of my decision to stop.  Mid to late morning EST seems to be less toxic and more teamwork.  IOW skill might be more important now than later.  Especially with the weekend coming up.  Tonight?  Fuggetaboutit!

 

Another consideration is that I tend to do best in my first 5-10 battles.  Unless I take a considerable break from the game like 2-3 hours.  So I do one warm up game in Fujin or Shinonome, then dive in with Shiratsuyu for a while.  When I start getting clumsy or make stupidly aggressive moves out of frustration, it's time for me to quit.  Winning or losing.


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This whole game is like poker. RNG to an extent and then player skill uses the cards that are dealt. This is why when scrubs start crying over RNG they are showing how stupid and narrow minded they are. Plenty of games are RNG dependant and are still considered competitive simply because player skill dictates decisions with regard to what RNG sends your way. 

Sometimes people go for the bluff, sometimes you bust. No one is screaming "that guys hand is OP! Not fair" "nerf royal flushes!"


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[oddly familiar annoying gif removed] Chalk up another Ranked thread Johnny

 

You seem to enjoy spreading salt. Do you ever actually contribute anything useful?

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You seem to enjoy spreading salt. Do you ever actually contribute anything useful?

 

not salty at all dude, have you seen how many Ranked threads have been in the past few days?

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The problem I think with Ranked players is that they vastly overestimate their own skill. If you take a look at players who think they're good vs the ones who actually ARE good, the ones who are good are having no trouble at all advancing 


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It is like blackjack. I seem to get stuck at the table with the potatoes hitting on 20 and the enemy team is the house taking my star shaped chips.


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After see-sawing for hours yesterday only to end down 1 star, I won 5 in a row this morning and got to 8.  I'm done for today!

 

It's just like poker or blackjack, the hardest thing to do - but the most essential - is to quit while you're ahead! :D

 

I hate to break it for you but that is not how it works if you want to reach low rank. This is a math game involved ofc with luck but ultimately it gets to statistics. So let's say you are rank 15 (I think you then need 46 stars or something for rank 1), so you had 5 losses yesterday and 8 wins today, let's say you were top loser in one match yesterday, so today you are +4 stars, so only 42 stars to go! Unfortunately, does not work like that at all, with a 52% w/l and let's say you are top loser in 1 out of 5 matches, you are still looking at 300+ games statistically speaking to reach rank 1. Do not know exact numbers despite some quick math thinking but the ballpark is around there. I understand your motivation and I am glad you are having fun, but you need to play many, many more matches if your goal is to reach rank one :) Tomorrow you will lose again all of the stars you won today and if you don't, you will after tomorrow, and so on, and progress only slowly, via amount of games played.

The secret is having the patience to endure a lot of headaches until you get to that point. It becomes very frustrating.


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One of my friends said it took him over a week of playing a few hours a day to get from rank 2 to rank 1. Be ready for the grind.


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I hate to break it for you but that is not how it works if you want to reach low rank. This is a math game involved ofc with luck but ultimately it gets to statistics. So let's say you are rank 15 (I think you then need 46 stars or something for rank 1), so you had 5 losses yesterday and 8 wins today, let's say you were top loser in one match yesterday, so today you are +4 stars, so only 42 stars to go! Unfortunately, does not work like that at all, with a 52% w/l and let's say you are top loser in 1 out of 5 matches, you are still looking at 300+ games statistically speaking to reach rank 1. Do not know exact numbers despite some quick math thinking but the ballpark is around there. I understand your motivation and I am glad you are having fun, but you need to play many, many more matches if your goal is to reach rank one :) Tomorrow you will lose again all of the stars you won today and if you don't, you will after tomorrow, and so on, and progress only slowly, via amount of games played.

The secret is having the patience to endure a lot of headaches until you get to that point. It becomes very frustrating.

 

Your math is wrong. You need 55 stars to go from rank 15 to rank 1. And 40 stars to go from rank 10 to rank 1.


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I hate to break it for you but that is not how it works if you want to reach low rank. This is a math game involved ofc with luck but ultimately it gets to statistics. So let's say you are rank 15 (I think you then need 46 stars or something for rank 1), so you had 5 losses yesterday and 8 wins today, let's say you were top loser in one match yesterday, so today you are +4 stars, so only 42 stars to go! Unfortunately, does not work like that at all, with a 52% w/l and let's say you are top loser in 1 out of 5 matches, you are still looking at 300+ games statistically speaking to reach rank 1. Do not know exact numbers despite some quick math thinking but the ballpark is around there. I understand your motivation and I am glad you are having fun, but you need to play many, many more matches if your goal is to reach rank one :) Tomorrow you will lose again all of the stars you won today and if you don't, you will after tomorrow, and so on, and progress only slowly, via amount of games played.

The secret is having the patience to endure a lot of headaches until you get to that point. It becomes very frustrating.

 

It wasn't too long ago that I plotted it out to see what the plots will look like for this (except I plotted win rate versus average number of battles per star): http://forum.worldofwarships.com/index.php?/topic/115563-an-interesting-plot-for-ranked/page__pid__2800631#entry2800631

 

 

Have you ever wondered how many battles you need to play on average to get the next star(s) or rank(s)?

 

Well, I don't know if this has been done before, but I plotted it out. Without taking into account the star you get on rank-up (which goes away after rank 10 anyways), this is what it looks like:

 

WfIl17C.png

 

If you are never the top scorer on the losing team and you have less than a 50% win rate, it makes sense that you'll never be able to advance and therefore, you need a win rate greater than 50% to advance. But if you start taking into account how many times you are the top scorer on the losing team, you can theoretically reach rank 1 with a much lower overall win rate.

 

Edit: here's a non-logarithmic plot:

VPVKL3E.png

 

 


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Your math is wrong. You need 55 stars to go from rank 15 to rank 1. And 40 stars to go from rank 10 to rank 1.

 

groovy... NOT

 

Looking at chart, I need about 10 battles per star. That's roughly 360 battles to go from 8 to 1. 

 

I might not endure that. But I'll have more fun! :D


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Today:

loss but top XP

loss

3 wins

loss bottom of team

win

loss

5 wins

loss but top of team by 300 XP

3 wins

2 losses

 

12 wins, 2 losses at top of team, and 4 full losses.  Net +8 stars from 18 battles..

 

I'm done for today.  Went from 8-0 to 6-1 and back to 7-3

 

There is more than random luck involved.

Edited by Landing_Skipper

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Hard to say this morning we had five wins in a row got me from Rank 12 to Rank 11 + 2 stars just needed one more to hit rank 10.  Guy in next game started complaining about how he wished this losing streak he had was gone.  Said right then, well looks like I'm done for the day the losing streak starts.  Sure enough it did.  When I got to Rank 11 with no stars I quit and I played random for the next five hours then went back to ranked now I am sitting at Rank 12 with no stars.  Won one match lost five more.

Thing is time of day seems to really determine chances of getting a team that will try to work together vs one that just scatters.


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My apologies if a daily log is annoying.

 

17 battles with 9 wins, 8 losses.  Top of team 4 times out of 8 though.  Done for tonight.

 

P.S. Radio Location is really powerful in Ranked.

Edited by Landing_Skipper

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My apologies if a daily log is annoying.

 

17 battles with 9 wins, 8 losses.  Top of team 4 times out of 8 though.  Done for tonight.

 

P.S. Radio Location is really powerful in Ranked.

 

Weird, I haven't seen it once in ranked so far.


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