Super Crate RNG. what the hell happened?

[Lanox_XI]

i just had to ask to see if i was the only one this has been happening to or if there was some change done to super crates.

ever since they where introduced i found that i would get a super crate on the release patch every 3-4 days granted i gathered all 3 crates per day never got anything outstanding from them like a ship or anything. however for the last 2 patches i have not gotten 1 single super crate not 1 in over a month now a drastic change from the the 1-2 a week i was getting on release so what the hell happened ? i thought maybe i was on a string of bad RNG but no a number of my friends have been having the same issues, did WoW do some tweak to make them harder to get or something? i was excited when they announced this crates and even tho the normal crates are well worthless (nothing feels better then opening your 3rd crate after the huge daily grind  to be grated by 5 flags or better yet 50 credits 3 flags and a normal camo.) at least the chance of getting the super crates made it fun and getting at least 1 a week after gaining 3 crates a day every day made worth while for me now im greeted by 3 disappointing dice-rolls every day and wonder if the super crates even exist anymore. idk what happend but i noticed it started around the time i got my 50 crates opened metal ( BTW i had gotten about 5 super containers pre 50 crates opened counting the free one we all got i recently passed the 100 containers mark and gotten 0 since i passed that 50 mark ) was there a change made or was this scripted to make super crates impossible to get after your 50th crate. most of my friend  are having the same issue is anyone else having this happen to them?

[Dahdrael]

wall of text... i read half of it and i know what you're talking about... i was getting one every now and then for the first few days... havent really had anything for a few weeks now....i think WG lessened the chance of a super container happening... but one could also argue RNG... /tinfoil hat time

[Admiral_Franz_von_Hipper]

I am not really seeing any problems on my end with the probability of SCs showing up. Since that patch, I have gotten like a grand total of 2 spread out on the order of once every three weeks.

[litigoX]

There has definitely been a change. I have pulled 158 containers. I have not pulled a Supercontainer in the last 76 attempts. Whether the change was intentional, or a programing oversight, I do not know.  But I am strongly of the opinion that there has been a significant change to the drop rate of super containers. 

[sbcptnitro]

I had started a thread about the very same thing a few hours before this one...

 

Super Containers: Maybe it's just me, but...

[RoundsDownRange]

I have not seen a super container since the last patch.

[thegamefilmguruman]

I have not seen a super container since the last patch.

 

I got 2 since the last patch.  Both with only a day between them.  A friend of mine has also gotten 2, one with a Scharnhorst.  Yet another of my friends got an atago.  The drop rate also has not been altered, as stated in a recent Q&A.

 

You all need to remember that every time you only have (with TYL) a 10% chance of getting a supercontainer.  You have a 90% chance of not getting one every time.

[Pope_Shizzle]

I have not seen a super container since the last patch.

 

I've only seen one in my last 100+ attempts.  And it wasn't even on a press your luck crate.  It was a random one on a consumable crate.

[Peregrinas]

 

I got 2 since the last patch.  Both with only a day between them.  A friend of mine has also gotten 2, one with a Scharnhorst.  Yet another of my friends got an atago.  The drop rate also has not been altered, as stated in a recent Q&A.

 

You all need to remember that every time you only have (with TYL) a 10% chance of getting a supercontainer.  You have a 90% chance of not getting one every time.

 

Where does it say that you have a 10% chance with TYL? I've been doing nothing but TYL for over 100 containers and I've gotten 3 supers, which is a rate of less than 3%. If the chance is 10%, then I should have gotten 10 supers, give or take a couple due to chance; three supers is an extreme outlier and highly improbable in a normal distribution.

[Zim_Xero]

Ive gotten one (with ship slot).  About 25 attempts so far.  I'd say the rate is somewhere between 1 and 10 percent,  Probably 3 - 5 percent, based on the posts above, throwing out Pope Shizzels extreme case... which could be exaggeration or perhaps he didn't notice getting it, or just bad luck.

[Kapitan_Wuff]

Its a small percent chance, like 1-2%, so don't expect them often. And for that matter, most of the super containers are going to be disappointing anyways. 

[Peregrinas]

Ive gotten one (with ship slot).  About 25 attempts so far.  I'd say the rate is somewhere between 1 and 10 percent,  Probably 3 - 5 percent, based on the posts above, throwing out Pope Shizzels extreme case... which could be exaggeration or perhaps he didn't notice getting it, or just bad luck.

 

I don't think there is a supercontainer that gives one port slot, because I've gotten a port slot with a standard TYL container.

[GearaDoga]

If they're going to leave it with a 99.999999999999999999999999% chance of failure, even on the TYL option, it would be nice if the rewards were just a tiny bit nicer than just a few of one single flag.

[Lanox_XI]

im not shore what the % chance was but 10% or so seems about right since i was getting 1 every 3-4 day do the math 10% thats a 1 out of 10 chance 3-4 days is 9-12 containers make scene i get one every 9-12 containers with the odds being 1 out of 10. anyway im glad to see im not the only one i have been thinking and i remember the patch after super-crates where added they made a change to them for people who got a ship that they already had from the super crates. do you think WG saw how meany people where getting free crapand gimped the % to make them harder to get without saying anything or maybe it's a bug or something from the changes made? maybe thats what happend but i still find it odd that this only started happening after my 50th crate so i think i will hold a investigation. i have a 2nd account that has not opened a single crate i will grind to 50 crates there and if i dont get any super containers pre 50th crate then i guess its a bug or the % was changed but if i do get more then 1 ill compare my chances pre 50 to my chances during 50-100 and see how it goes.

[NCC81701]

im not shore what the % chance was but 10% or so seems about right since i was getting 1 every 3-4 day do the math 10% thats a 1 out of 10 chance 3-4 days is 9-12 containers make scene i get one every 9-12 containers with the odds being 1 out of 10. anyway im glad to see im not the only one i have been thinking and i remember the patch after super-crates where added they made a change to them for people who got a ship that they already had from the super crates. do you think WG saw how meany people where getting free crapand gimped the % to make them harder to get without saying anything or maybe it's a bug or something from the changes made? maybe thats what happend but i still find it odd that this only started happening after my 50th crate so i think i will hold a investigation. i have a 2nd account that has not opened a single crate i will grind to 50 crates there and if i dont get any super containers pre 50th crate then i guess its a bug or the % was changed but if i do get more then 1 ill compare my chances pre 50 to my chances during 50-100 and see how it goes.

 

Learn to use paragraphs please.

 

You don't have to guess at the %chance if you remember the number of super containers you have gotten. There's an achievement for 1000 containers that you have opened that you can use the progress bar to keep track of how many you have open. I've only opened Try Your luck Containers and at ~100 containers the SC drop rate is 4% which seems more in-line with what everyone else have gotten. 

[litigoX]

I am now over 80 containers in a row without a SC. The evidence, anecdotal as it is, is getting stronger and stronger that there is a bug, glitch, or programming error that WG is not acknowledging. 

 

I sent a support ticket to WG to get some input on the issue. Their response was confusing at best. 

 

Here is what WG said: "Please keep in mind that virtual property contains an inherent value that transcends all servers"

 

That's a direct quote. 

Maybe it was a translation problem?

[soluuloi]

I have not seen a super container since the last patch.

 

I have opened 2 since the last patch. No ship thou. But I am on another server so who know?

[litigoX]

93 containers in a row without a SC. This is on the NA server, using try your luck. That's not RNG, that's broken!

[vak_]

however for the last 2 patches i have not gotten 1 single super crate

 

And I got two SC out of the past half a dozen containers I opened. So?

 

PS Based on a forum survey, on average one in about thirty containers seems to be a super. Again, "on average" -- there is a lot of variation. Just FYI.

[prevans]

I love how every post about SCs always goes along the lines of "I don't think I'm getting enough SCs" and then the statisticians come and try and explain probability to everyone.