Determining whether the Try Your Luck is worth it depends on your belief of the probability of a Supercontainer.

[Compassghost]

We don't know the true chance of a Supercontainer. We know it is higher when we pick Try Your Luck [citation needed] based on the description. We can create a probability analysis out of this, with the probability being the only unknown. I assume that the probability of an SC is double for TYL simply for ease of calculations. It may be a fixed percentage increase, double, or triple, but I don't know the actual numbers.

 

The other piece of information we substitute in is how much value a supercontainer is worth compared to a normal container. For this, we will use the assumption that whatever is in a Supercontainer is approximately worth 50x what is a single item in a normal container, i.e. 250 flags is worth 50x more than 5 flags. This is an approximation, simply because we can't evaluate the worth of someone who needs credits/premium time and so on, so assuming flags and consumables are the most common, it's 50x.

 

In other words, a normal box, you will get a box worth 3, or a supercontainer worth 50. In a TYL draw, you will get a box worth 1, or a supercontainer worth 50.

 

Let's assume the chance of an SC is 1% with a normal draw (which would appear to be quite pessimistic based on SC numbers reported in the forums, and 2% with a TYL box.

 

We can create the following table.

 

			SC	Normal
Probability of SC (Unknown)	1%	Value	50	1	Estimated Value
More Flags	1%	99%	0.5	2.97	3.47
More Credits	1%	99%	0.5	2.97	3.47
More Consumables	1%	99%	0.5	2.97	3.47
TYL	2%	98%	1	0.98	1.98

 

As you can see, based on the probability of what you're planning to draw, your net profit for a supercontainer is worth 3.47 for a normal draw, and a measly 1.98 for a non-normal draw. If you need anything from those boxes, you put yourself at a disadvantage by drawing TYL.

 

The break-even point is at 4% for a normal box to become a supercontainer, which I feel is high-balling it.

 

			SC	Normal
Probability of SC (Unknown)	4%	Value	50	1	Estimated Value
More Flags	4%	96%	2	2.88	4.88
More Credits	4%	96%	2	2.88	4.88
More Consumables	4%	96%	2	2.88	4.88
TYL	8%	92%	4	0.92	4.92

 

As you can see, you are slightly favored to get more out of TYL in this case.

 

So, as long as you believe the base chance of a Supercontainer is less than 4%, you should not chase the supercontainer in TYL.

[amade]

I have an excess of credits (and by extension, consumables and camo), signal flags, doubloons, free XP and port slots. Therefore, none of the regular containers are worth much to me because I have no demand for them. Ergo, the TYL container is automatically worth much more for me from which I would have a higher chance to get stuff like rare premiums or dragon signal flags (which I did get, once).

[Veasel]

Now that's some quality overthinking.

[atPrick__]

Determining whether the Try Your Luck is worth it depends on your belief of the possibility of a Sup...

 

Ftfy

[SeanPwnery]

I've seen 2 confirmed Nikolai SC rolls so far. By the time I get my next SC, watch WG say "we had to lower the probability of Nikolai getting in the SC's" 

 

[TheHolySpork]

I disagree. You should choose TYL if you want to. 

 

If the chance was confirmed to be 0.5%, I would still do it. I like to gamble and don't need the credits.

[TenguBlade]

Nice to see some math on the subject.  But you're forgetting that sometimes human decisions defy reason.

 

As in "the game hates me and that's all but fact, but I still think I have a chance at a supercontainer."

[RumblingMouse]

You guys should have more faith in the supercrate. I know from experience that the supercrate can be very rewarding.

 

Especially after a long supercrate "drought" (aka, few supercrates, but technically that isn't possible because statistics and all and we shouldn't be getting or expecting many supercrates anyway).

 

I suggest you keep trying your luck.

[1SneakyDevil]

I've seen 2 confirmed Nikolai SC rolls so far. By the time I get my next SC, watch WG say "we had to lower the probability of Nikolai getting in the SC's" 

 

I've seen a Lo Yang drop from a SC to one of my clan.

[SergeantHop]

I will always do TYL, because I really don't have much to lose.

[BrushWolf]

It seems that the rate of ships in the SC's was too high so instead of reducing that rate they reduced the rate for the SC's instead. I got Two SC's shortly after the new system came out and nothing since in several hundred containers.

[Final_Spark]

I like supers and all, but for normal rewards I like getting special camos. I really want to stock up on Restless Fire to have some super commander training going on (when mixed with Zulu Hotel and Dragon flags).

 

When choosing Flags&Camo, I've had unsatisfactory results. For one, because there's more flags than camos you're more likely to get flags. For two, I tend to pull standard Type 1, 2, and 5 camos which is chump change. For three, camo pulls from Flags&Camo only gives you batches of three.

 

For TYL, camo batches are 5 camos and I tend to see special camos when I do pull them. I had gotten two Gamescom batches in one day once.