senseNOTmade

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  1. Copied it out for you: CA: R^2= 0.439 BB: R^2= 0.5213 DD: R^2= 0.65538 That certainly is a lot better than any of the overall trend lines. I find it interesting that CAs are the most divergent- perhaps implying that damage is relevant to some CAs but not to others? Maybe not- as you say, this is not a lot of data to go on. The data is not for individual players, but for individual ships. So for instance, one data point might aggregate all the data from all the ranked games played by all players on the NA server in the cleveland within the last two weeks. Another data point might be the same but for the NewMexico.
  2. Had some free time today so I copied the ship statistics for ranked battles from Warships Today into an excel spreadsheet to run some correlations. Each data point is the average results for a different ship in the last 2 weeks as of 16 July, with the y-axis is always win rate between 46% and 55%, which is compared to a variety of variables on the x-axis. When an equation and R^2 value is given, it is always for the trend line of all ships, NOT for any particular ship type. Win Rate Compared to Number of Battles More of a joke, this shows the win rate as compared with the absolute number of battles played in each ship. It shows no correlation up to approximately 25000 battles, at which point a slightly negative correlation starts, implying that more battles played tends towards lower win rates. I thought about excluding all ships in which less than 25000 battles had been played, but then there would not be enough data points. Win Rate Compared to Average Damage In this graph, each ship type is colour coded and has it's own trend line (except CVs as two data points don't really make a trend). What I find interesting here is how the trend line for BBs is far more predictive than that for DDs, with CAs somewhere in the middle. This confirms what we already know: BBs win battles by doing damage, with each 3333 of average damage translating into 1% higher win rate (at the trend line). But DDs have very divergent win rates with very similar average damage numbers (only 5453 damage separates the highest and lowest win rate DDs), implying that DDs win battles by other means. This is obvious to anyone who has played WoWs for half an hour, but it's still cool to see it demonstrated statistically. Win Rate Compared to XP Although individual ship types are colour coded in this graph, I saw no meaningful patterns in the trend lines of individual ship types. The main problem you have here is figuring out causality, as winning incurs a x1.5 XP bonus, it could be that the higher XP is caused by the higher win rate, rather than the other way around. That said, XP is the only way I can think of acknowledging some of the more obscure but still important statistics such as capping or spotting damage. If anybody knows where I can get this data by itself, please tell me. Perhaps an interesting note is the most of the BBs are below the trend line, while most of the DDs are above it, implying that BBs tend to have unusually high XP relative to win rate. If you're planning on keeping stars despite losing, BBs might therefore be a good option. Win Rate Compared to Survival Rate The two CVs kinda mess up the overall trend line on this graph, so I wouldn't try to use it. Otherwise, survival rate is about equally predictive regardless of ship type, so within each ship type an increase of 2.9% in survival rate will translate into about a 1% increase in win rate. I find it interesting how the trend lines for the different ship types have basically the same gradient but with a horizontal translation, but can't really think of a meaningful explanation. BBs just seem to survive more. Anyway, I hope people found this interesting. -senseMADEnot
  3. I've seen some teams try to, for instance, push through C into the north spawn. The problem is that because of the large islands to the east and west this kind of play usually means a long disengagement which automatically seeds B to the enemy team, thereby giving them a points advantage and forcing you to push in, placing you at a disadvantage. As such, the main strategic choice on this map is if one should go directly to B or first get the capture point on your side and then attack B from the other side.
  4. Yea, two tier match spread is not guaranteed, but it is common in tiers past 5. Only real solution is becoming tier X and then you'll always be top tier. :P I know from WoT (where I suck) how frustrating it can be, but it is possible to win despite being bottom tier. The key is patients: not pushing in for a bit of extra damage against overwhelming odds. Know your ship's role, take advantage of your team, and then just the usual angling/good aiming. For more, you'll need to talk to somebody who knows what they are doing.
  5. Let's find out, shall we?
  6. Finally. Finally a thread truly understands me. There are clearly a lot of haters on here, probably the same people who shout potato at everything at the start of matches, but let me explain just how brilliant this post really is. It all starts in a small town in Siberia, sorta to the north, north south kinda area? The Russian people are known for the many great men their culture produced who's contribution to western society lingers on despite the cold war's propaganda placing them on the opposite side of an ideological divide. Their influence lives on regardless, like the firm bead rock which anchors the unshaken house despite the waves which crash down all around it. Understanding this relationship between Russian grand chess masters and western society as a whole is crucial in understanding the brilliance of this post. Anyway, this Siberian town wasn't Russian and did not produce any chess masters. But they had a long and proud tradition nonetheless and they cherished it even after the many russification programs had brought vodka and those furry hats into their houses. My classmate: A girl who's father made millions grabbing as many factories as possible after the Soviet collapse and squeezing the workers for all they were worth, was originally from this village, although her family had not livered there in three generations and even then it was only a distant cousin staying with a family there for a year or so. I think that classmate of mine would have understood this post- the raw power; the necessity of the obtuse presentation in order to preserve the inherent character of the sinaesthetic experience being touted. The multimedia presentation is only really possible in a context which both technically and contextually accepts the linkage of multiple different forms in conveying a unified message. Just think- this is a piece of art (and it is art) has only been made possible in this decade, not only because pre internet societies did not have a method of easily propagating such information-rich media, but also because they simply lacked the cultural understanding of how such diverse shots, spanning text, comic, video and picture, could be understood as a whole, complete work. We largely have film to thank for this: the granddaddy of all multimedia artforms. Many of the contributions of Russian artists were in laying the groundwork of how multiple shots, sounds and visuals could be understood in a unified context. Although it might seem alien to us now, before film, before even the basic grammar of visual media such as the shot/reverse shot were established, people simply did not understand that such a sequence of cuts implies a certain conclusion. What this post does brilliantly is merge so many conflicting media: not just film but text and picture as well, as well as different cultures: mixing anime with western and european perspectives, that we have been trained since childhood to understand as relating to each other, that it fundamentally breaks modern media; exposing the underlying falseness of the many assumptions inherent in contemporary culture. We see that the text has been put in a special color and font, and inherently we try to piece this information together with the music and the words- like trying to understand two clips as relating to each other by the cut that separates them. But we must not forget the context in which this piece is placed: a forum. Here, the breakage of our cultural understanding is given physical form by the responses of our fellow WoWs players. They seek to reduce the overwhelming sensation of this post to mere jibberish in an attempt to protect their own shallow assumptions about how art works. They feel uncomfortable peering behind the curtain of what they have always assumed to be simply true, and therefore try to dismiss the thought entirely. But once truth has been glimpsed it can never be unglimpsed, and their struggles to disavow what they now know simply ensnares them more- every dismissive post another nail in the coffin that is the message of this post. It can hardly be denied that a work this refined in execution and style will be remembered throughout the ages amongst the likes of Michelangelo and Bobby Ross. I have just scratched the surface here: entire books can be written about the brilliance inscribed here. For now, all I can say is: Gasai- I salute you.
  7. I think we should be able to sell captains too. Let's just go straight to exchanging people like commodities! These captains are nothing more than reload modules with faces anyway. *Just to be absolutely clear, this is a joke.*
  8. I lost six games in a row in my Riujo today. I'm not big on blaming my team, but this really was all their fault. It was amazing how wildly they kept splitting up- dividing themselves amongst all 3 channels even though only two of them contain capture points in ranked. I spotted DDs till the fubukis scored plane kills in the double digits, but did anybody bother to maybe shoot at them? Is it normal for me as a CV to accidentally ram a Fuso while on the other side of the map from where the battle is happening? Eventually, even I was about 15km closer to the front than him, until an enemy DD appeared to harass him (probably looking for me). That felt like karma, until he started loudly blaming us for not supporting him (I kid you not). The DDs really were an insane bunch- I could see the madness in their eyes. They charged like wild berserkers directly at the enemy team, only to get torped half way there. At one point a DD bravely charged down an enemy BB in front of the entire enemy team all so he could claim the last 5k of remaining health despite my dive bombers being but seconds away. Great play right there; got himself killed from full health. And the CAs! Not many of them around actually, but the one Graf Spee on my team very courageously pushed all the way to the other end of the map (the end opposite to where the fight was happening) so that he could finish off the enemy CV after I had already gotten a clear skies medal on him. Always seemed to be an AA specked cleveland on the other team though... You think that such a string of defeats has to be my fault? Well, maybe the one time I stupidly let myself be CV sniped. But I got 3 or 4 clear skies medals in those 6 games, plus a liquidator. I averaged around 70k spotting damage, mostly on DDs. I did my part- I fulfilled my role, all I need to do now is everybody else's job as well. Thanks, letting that out felt great.
  9. My biggest frustration (perhaps you can add it to the list of possible options?) is playing a stock ship, particularly CA or CV, as these are unusually dependent upon interrelated stats, where the weakness of one affects all others.
  10. I've recently been playing the Baltimore; one of the most prominent radar cruisers. The main problem with radar is that you must get within 9km or closer to prevent the enemy DD from quickly jumping out of detection range again. This inevitable gets you spotted and with the BB-heavy meta you tend to get deleted early on. The obvious solution is to glue yourself to islands like a Lumpsucker, but then it becomes possible for the enemy DD to himself dive behind an island and so avoid most incoming fire despite detection, and it only lasts about 30 seconds. In any case, the concept of radar being an "easy" or "thoughtless" mechanic is simply not true. If I can give some advice to DD captains it is to remain aware of the positions of radar cruisers and to make sure that you have battleship support.
  11. I suppose I need to throw in the usual cautionary note about us amateurs trying to analyse statistics. There is a big complication in that premium ships are not assigned randomly, which can create sampling errors. For example, the Anshan is a premium ship with relatively few battles played which probably has an unusually high number of experienced players rooting for it. I also notice that despite the surprisingly high win rate, the Graf Spee is lack luster or even bad in most other categories (Poor damage, XP and MBH, mediocre K/D and survivability). That makes me think that the Graf's high win rate might fall in line with the rest of it's performance over the course of time. I also see that despite the Ryujo's clear dominance, the Independence actually has more plane kills, implying air dominance. I could imagine however that the long resupply times hamper the Independence's ability to take advantage of such opportunities to provide consistent spotting or make more strike runs. Judging by the damage, pretty much all CV captains are running AS loadouts. I can't imagine a strike loadout Ryujo averaging just 33k damage. BBs are clearly the most played class of ship, with CAs and DDs being player roughly the same amount. This makes sense since even the worst BBs have higher damage outputs than any of the other ships, and a K/D above 1, which only seems to be the case amongst the top ships amongst other classes. I also notice that the difference between the top and bottom ship in terms of win rate is only 4% amongst BBs, as oppose to 6% amongst CAs and DDs, and 8% amongst CVs, suggesting that which BB you choose has a relatively small impact upon performance. PS REALLY IMPORTANT: Does anyone know if it is possible to find the standard deviations, or some other appropriate measure of spread for these statistics? I'm thinking that ships with a higher standard deviation on their win rate are more reliant on player skill, since the difference between the worst and best performing players is greater than amongst ships with more consistent win rates.
  12. A warning to anyone who wants to try out this kind of lock/strafe manoeuvre, there is a counter: If the locked enemy squadron strafes out before your locked squadron strafes out, your squadron will be stuck and you will eat your own squadron. This is especially dangerous when fighting USN fighters, as their larger squadrons allows them to win a head-on strafe. This, of course, requires very careful timing, as the longer your squadron remains locked the greater the risk of you getting countered, but the earlier you disengage the lock the more likely it is that the enemy will still be able to manoeuvre before your strafe comes in. Generally, the right timing depends upon the experience of your opponent.
  13. I just want to point out that in terms of number of ships, you are currently the second largest, just behind the US navy. Your ships are a bit outdated in comparison though...
  14. I think we all know the logical conclusion to this. Actually, CVs are the most narcissistic class oh look DD I can just cross drop him and boom, oh look a lone BB I can just sit back and fire/flood for massive dmg. why arent you protecting me from enemy DDs oh cruiser has way OP AA, our DD should kill him for me. why arent enemy BBs dead already they are so easy to kill? useless team why arent you sticking together and making yourself such easy targets for air attack, l2p noob CVs are just the most whiny and self centered class of players. when are (cant find clever insult, even checked: http://www.thefreedictionary.com/words-containing-cv, does anyone else see a good one?) gonna realise that its not all about them? I should know; I'm a CV captain and I'm a total narcissist.