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About LaurenBacall

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  1. LaurenBacall

    Demolition Expert Math

    Not a "mistake", just a difference in terms used in the formula. As you illustrate, they mean the same thing. Good point - thank you. Here's are streamlined formulas: X1 = 1 - (1 - H) ^ ((G * 60 sec / R sec) / 6) X2 = 1 - (1 - H - 0.02) ^ ((G * 60 sec / R sec) / 6) I think you're both right and this is a critical observation, since the duration considered has a large effect on the probability gap between non-DE and DE. I agree that measuring the probability gaps at 1 second and 1 minute are both too extreme. How about a more "reasonable" 10 seconds? At 10 seconds (the '6' in the above, amended formulas), a 5% probability increase to set a single fire seems more measurable - I want to get new fires set in a reasonable amount of time. Therefore: If (X2 - X1) >= 5% then taking DE is "good enough", assuming all other factors are equal. The list of top-hull, HE-firing cruisers that meet this criteria is now a lot different from my OP: Admiral Hipper, Albany, Atlanta, Aurora, Belfast, Boise, Bogatyr, Buffalo, Charleston, Chester, Chikuma, Dallas, De Grasse. Diana, Dimitri Donskoi, Dresden, Duca d'Aosta, Duca Degli Abruzzi, Duguy-Trouin, Emden, Émile Bertin, Flint, Friant, Helena, Huanghe, Indianapolis, Jurien, Karlsruhe, Katori, Kirov, Kolberg, Königsberg, Krazny Krym, Kuma, La Galissonnière, London, Marblehead, Marakov, Mogami (155mm), Molotov, Murmansk, New Orleans, Novik, , Nueve de Julio, Nürnberg (B) and (C), Oleg, Omaha, Pensacola, Perth, Phoenix, Prinz Eugen, Roon, Shchors, St. Louis, Svietlana, Tenryū, Varyag, Yahagi, Yorck, Yūbari That a lot of cruisers! (but not all of them) - if you "lower your standards" then you could argue that DE has a measurable impact on every HE-firing cruiser in the game...but is it still worth the 3 commander skill points? Personal preference. I'd rather use those points elsewhere. Again, thank you all!
  2. LaurenBacall

    Bayard HE Shatter Ratio

    Yep. Thank you. It's 1/5, instead of the normal 1/6.
  3. LaurenBacall

    Bayard HE Shatter Ratio

    I've heard that the ratio of armor/shell needed for a shatter of Bayard's HE shells is 1/5. I checked @LittleWhiteMouse article on the ship and she mentions, but sounds unsure/beta-speak. Can anyone confirm if this is true or not now?
  4. LaurenBacall

    Demolition Expert Math

    All ships can benefit from DE, but some more than others. My assumption of what is "good enough" is at least a 2% increased probability of setting a fire every second (which is, obviously, theoretical, since ship reload times are longer than that.) That makes it a better investment of 3 commander skill points on those cruisers listed above in my initial post. (P.S. So far, none of the BBs I've analyzed "qualify" for DE. I'm sure most DDs will.) What I was trying to do is normalize the exponent to "# of shells fired per minute", instead of "# of shell fired per salvo". As you say, that shouldn't adversely affect the match, but thanks for pointing it out. So true. This makes a good case for spreading the HE around the map more if you have the kind of ship that can unload the rounds fast enough!
  5. LaurenBacall

    Demolition Expert Math

    Not true. I used to think that also. The effectiveness of DE is mainly determined by the ships rate of fire and the increased probability of a fire - which is the whole point, right? Why spend 3 points on a skill that doesn't give you much of an advantage over the course of the entire battle? Again, see above. The increase in the chance to get a fire on a single shell (increased by fire-increasing buffs) isn't the same as the probability of setting fires over time. Yes, the modified chance to start fires is the base, but the main influence is over rate of fire and probability. Supporting math? And how long does it take to get those 15 hits, compared to say, a Smolensk or a Colbert? That makes all the difference in dishing out fires and that makes Demolition Expert that much more effective. Agreed, but I can't control what's happening at the pointy end of the shell arc. I'm just saying that if you take DE at face value, the above math appears to be how it's bonus gets applied in practice, based on probability math. Therefore, even if I take all other factors into account, the probability difference calculated above is "significant" independent of other factors. That helps me (just speaking for myself) to answer the question, "Should I spend 3 points on DE or not? Am I wasting those points?" Just thought my list of cruisers where the biggest improvements in HE fire starting % occur would be useful to folks.
  6. LaurenBacall

    Demolition Expert Math

    I'm not claiming to be an expert, just a long-time player that decided to run the numbers. Demolition Expert - when should it be chosen as a commander skill? Using the information found on the wiki and the forums, I concluded that the formula for probability (not the chance) of starting a fire over time looks like this: X1 = 1 - (1 - H) ^ ((G * 60 sec / R) / 60 sec), where... X = the probability of setting a fire every second (what we're solving for) H = chance of HE shells causing fire on target (ship stat) G = number of main battery guns that can realistically be brought to bear, port or starboard R = main battery gun reload time (ship stat) This formula is based on determining the cumulative probability of not starting a fire broadside salvo, over the course of a minute (# shells/salvo * 60 seconds / reload rate), divided by 60 seconds (to get a probability/second). To tell whether the Demolition Expert skill is "worth it", we need to compare the difference in probabilities both with and without the Demolition Expert's 2% bonus to "chance of HE shells causing fire on target". Here's the above formula, modified to account for the Demolition Expert commander skill: X2 = 1 - (1 - H + 0.02) ^ ((G * 60 sec / R) / 60 sec) If the difference between these two probabilities (X1 and X2)is greater than 2%, then HE is "worth taking". Questions: Is the formula and method above accurate? (Check my work!) Should we be looking at DPS vs. DPM? Is the 2% difference a good enough assumption? Should Demolition Expert ever be paired with IFHE? Assuming the difference even with IFHE taken is about the same as without IFHE, it still makes sense to take Demolition Expert, no? Using the above, here's a list of cruisers where taking the Demolition Expert commander skill "makes sense": Atlanta, Bayard, Bogatyr, Budyonny, Buffalo, Chapayev, Colbert, Dallas, Danae, De Grasse, Des Moines, Dresden, Duca Degli Abruzzi, Duguay-Trouin, Emden, Flint, Hindenburg, Irian, Kolberg, Königsberg, Kuma, La Galissonnière, Lazo, Marblehead, Marakov, Mikhail Kutuzov, Murmansk, Novik, Nürnberg, Omaha, Perth, Salem, Seattle, Shchors, Smolensk, Worcester Looking forward to analysis, comments, and questions. Thanks!
  7. LaurenBacall

    Muzzle Velocity Stat: What's It Good For?

    That's the problem, IMO - too many factors that really can't be "known" when you pull the trigger. Therefore, that's about the only use I see for the muzzle velocity stat, and as @KosmicRavioli added, even that is suspect due to additional parameters that can't be known and/or easily researched. That answers my question. Thank you, all!
  8. I've read many articles/posts on HE vs. AP and the damage mechanics behind both and have logged over 8k battles. I understand the basic mechanics behind how ammunition behaves against various targets in different situations. However, what am I expected to do with this information? How do I apply this information in making commander skill, signal, and module selection decisions, if at all? What practical play behaviors can be influenced by knowing the muzzle velocity stats of shells during combat? Again, I understand the general rules for using which ammo when - great! But is there some crucial advantage in knowing the difference between an AP shell with 850 m/s MV and 910 m/s MV? How can I realistically apply this during battle, if at all? Thanks!
  9. Do British heavy cruisers enjoy the same angle bonus to AP as the light cruisers do? Thanks!
  10. LaurenBacall

    Is there Russian Bias by War Gaming?

    Definitely biased in favor of Russian ships, but its their game. Unless players speak with their wallet/playtime, it won't change. And I don't blame them.
  11. LaurenBacall

    Fixing Co-op Battles

    Let me re-phrase the question. Co-ops are boring and don't really teach new players much of anything. Ships dies so quickly, one can't focus on improving a specific skills. The bots don't play anything like human-controlled ships, so any skills you are learning can't really be applied to randoms. If you try to play like a random, you'll find yourself (generally speaking) sitting out most of the match and - boom - its over. In short, the phrase "go back to co-op" is pointless and not helpful, either. I'd like to see some sort of co-op AI overhaul.
  12. LaurenBacall

    Changes with Detonation Lately?!

    As a general rule, I hate detonations. To min/max opportunities to avoid this, I follow these rules: Always but the detonation flag on a destroyer. Yes, you should always "drive it like you stole it", but detonations still suck. Always but Magazine Modification 1 on a cruiser. The advantages from MAM1 aren't as potent on a cruiser - I rarely lose turrets or torp tubes, and never get detonated. No point on placing these on a battleship or a carrier, for obvious reasons. Problem solved!
  13. LaurenBacall


    Hit% is good, but 9k battles and I still suck at it. Best advice I can give: Use the Dynamic crosshair By default, the time-to-target of a ship nearly perpendicular to you is the position on the crosshair you should place on the middle of the target. If its a destroyer, double the number. If its a battleship, halve the number. If the target is further than approx. 16 km, you need to increase the number. If its less than 10 km, you need to reduce it. If the target is angled, reposition the crosshair in an oval pattern (imagine an oval around the ship and adjust) - my basic rule of thumb is not to reduce the crosshair position by too much until the target is clearly more sharply angled than 45 degrees off the perpendicular. Practice, practice, practice. More importantly, focus win rate - that's the stat that matters. Not all ships can contribute by improving hit% for a variety of reasons, but every ship has her secrets that contribute to producing wins. Good luck!
  14. LaurenBacall

    Is there a USN bias in this game

    Lots of stuff here. My 2 cents: Americans won the war (both wars?) almost single-handedly, in terms of raw industrial power. Their equipment didn't have to be "the best" - they just made a lot of mediocre stuff. The USA could trade 10 Shermans for 1 Tiger tank, and in the long run, laugh about it. Consider that US industrial capacity at the end of the Pacific War was larger than the rest of the world combined and you get a sense of why things looked the way they did (and why the world needed the Marshall Plan). Don't believe it? Then do your reading. The Russian lines (all of which I *really* like, BTW) are/were basically non-existent because of Stalin's idiot-level management of the Soviet Union, both before and during the war. The ships provided by WGing are fictional, but somewhat based on aspirational thinking on the part of Russian designers. Not like the Pan-Asian line, which is *really* reaching...
  15. LaurenBacall

    Puerto Rico Warp Up Questions

    Thanks, all. I'm time-constrained, what with the NFL and all this weekend. Just dropped the 15k and now have a PR, plus the steel. Yay. Wargaming, take note..."Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice..." And I should have known better than to fork over dbs without more concrete data.