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About _Marines

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    Warrant Officer
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    Massachusetts, Scharnhorst, Giulio Cesare

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  1. _Marines

    Mass vs FDG: P2W!

    Sounds like a plausible strategy. German BBs like the FDG have turtleback armor, which gives them an incredible advantage at close-range brawling.
  2. _Marines

    what did you buy with your 30% coupon?

    Only have a 10% coupon. I thought about buying the Tsar Alexander captain. He comes with 15 skill points and can pilot both US and Russian ships, potentially being excellent for Kronshtadt and some US ship like Arizona or West Virginia. Then I was like, whatever, forget about it.
  3. Well, at least you got a 30% coupon. I only got a 10% coupon.
  4. This is very nice. If I have to wait for the next Halloween to see my subs, it will drive me mad. Also I do enjoy the Halloween scenarios. They are well done and I hope WG can retain them in some ways.
  5. This is the key difference. I just wish the high tier German BBs receive some form for buff from WG. They are such fun ships to play. Currently Jean Bart's damage has a trended down slightly. Looks less crazy but still very strong stats in her tier.
  6. _Marines

    Is the KGV worth it? Is it a keeper?

    What a fantastic ship!
  7. _Marines

    Happy Birthday - United States Marine Corps

    The few. The proud. The Marines!!! Thank you all for your service!
  8. _Marines

    Soviet Battleship theories and analysis

    I think the most important decision should be NOT to configure Russian battleships like the British battleships: underwater citadels and very high damage HEs.
  9. Darn. I should have phrased it in reverse: "Early players say Jean Bart is unsurvivable, should WG buff her immediately??" And then I will be banned for conspiracy to hurt WG's last quarter sales. Seriously no one needs a digital ship in life to be happy. If you are a fan of the ship and her history, you can still save up coals for her. That is, unless you believe (looks like most here do not) the ship will be taken off from sales. In that case, you will miss Jean Bart, but can still play other OP ships you already have in your port.
  10. 71 games now. One other way to look at it is by what Jean Bart's win rate will be 2 weeks from now. By then there will be a lot more battles and stats will stabilize: 1) Win rate > 55%: WG will likely take the ship off from sale. 2) Win rate roughly 53%~55%: This is likely WG's target win rate for Jean Bart. She will be a strong contender in the tier, but not so much that WG wants to take her off from sale. 3) Win rate roughly 50%~53%: I think players will likely welcome this outcome very much. Ship will always be up for sale. 4) Win rate <50%: WG will likely have to buff the ship.
  11. There are two things some are oblivious here. First is that it's only reasonable to ignore a biased estimator if there is no theoretical basis. Using #2's example, if we analyst the soccer team players' individual performance parameters and conclude the team is likely to be average (i.e. no theoretical basis for the team to outperform), and then the team outperforms in the first few small examples, we can say it's likely the sample is biased and the team should perform average. However, if the analysis indicates that the soccer team players' aggregate performance is significantly above average (i.e. there is theoretical basis), then when the team outperforms in the first few small examples, we cannot say it's just the sample being too small. There is very strong theoretical basis in our case. In iChase's review, Jean Bart was a game-breakingly strong ship. WG claims to have later nerfed the ship a little (liking reducing reload consumable duration), but anyone can still claim the theoretical basis is there. For this reason, we cannot rule out the possibility that at least a part of the statistic's outperformance is not from the early adopter bias, but from the ship's own outperformance. Two is that the earlier we can predict something, the more valuable the prediction is. We can of course predict a storm's wind speed, duration, and landing time on Florida with 99% confidence the day before it lands, but such prediction is worthless. Prediction of the storm 3 months in advance will have a much smaller confidence and a much wider range of possibilities, but this prediction has value. Dude, where the stats will ultimately regress to is determined by ship fundamentals. Jean Bart has a weak hull, but very high speed, accurate guns, and a reload consumable. The guns, as we already know from French BBs, are also high velocity, lol-penning. You are either foolish or significantly mentally challenged.
  12. With time passing on we will see who is truly clueless about statistics. You are lucky enough statistics is not essential for living. However, you should still try to use that one muscle while matters every now and then. It's a good exercise for you.
  13. (^Above: Jean Bart averages at 111k damage for her tier, vastly surpassing any other existing BBs.) (^Above: By win rate, Jean Bart is the second most OP battleship in any tiers, only slightly below Nikolai I.) We know that WG doesn't think like players do. We may think the original Alsace wasn't actually that oppressive, or that the original Des Moines wasn't actually that underpowered. However, WG only looks at win rates and damages. If a premium ship "overperforms" according to these two metrics, WG takes it off from sale. A good example is Konig Albert. While community thinks she's an excellent ship for learning and by no means overpowered, WG considers her so according to stats and makes her unobtainable. Currently Jean Bart, while just launched, is dramatically overperforming according to the two stats that WG looks at. (While 36 games don't seem a lot, in statistics, a random sample with a size of 30 or larger is already reflective of the hypothetical population, i.e. all possible Jean Bart games. Current stats based on these 36 games are already a consistent and reliable estimator of the population. Although this estimator is biased up, because early adopters tend to be players with better battle stats themselves.) Three possible scenarios: 1) The ship is priced very high in the premium shop, but affordable in the Arsenal with coals. Hopefully a lot more players get the ship with coals, and her stats regress towards the mean. In this scenario, WG will keep the battleship for sale for a long time. 2) Jean Bart remains a niche ship among hardcore players, and the currently recorded stats stay. Whether we think the ship is op or not, or game-breaking or not doesn't matter. WG looks at win rate and avg damage and permanently takes the "overperforming" ship off the shop and the Arsenal, like Imperator Nikolai I. 3) Jean Bart's stats regress towards the mean like in scenario (1), but the sales is not a success in terms of cash revenue. So WG takes the ship off from sale with the intention to make her available in the future. What do you think?
  14. _Marines

    Naval abbreviations

    Most of these are from an earlier time of the British navy. Terms like "BB", for instance, were intended that the first letter represents primary type (battleship) of the ship, and the second letter represents the subtype of the ship (e.g.: CA: Cruiser, Armoured; CL: Cruiser, Light). Battleships and destroyers do not have meaningful subtypes at that time, so "BB" basically means the ship type is "battleship," and the subtype is also "battleship". Carriers, when first invented, were thought to play the cruiser role in a fleet, thus "CV" (Cruiser, Aviation/Voler).