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Project number of ranked games needed to rank out


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Bronco #1 Posted 20 March 2017 - 07:00 PM

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In case anyone is wondering how many games it would take them to rank out, I figured out a simple formula for you. The formula calculates the number of games from rank 16 since up to that point, no stars are lost. To progress from rank 16 to 1 requires 51 stars (previously stated as 55, corrected to 51 thanks to ckupf). Therefore, the total number of games can be calculated as follows:

 

Total games = 51 / (2*WP - 1 + TP*(1-WP))

 

where WP = win percent and TP = top percent (percent of times when you are the top XP earner in a loss) 

 

In a 7v7 match, your chance of being top XP earner in a loss is nominally 1/7 or 14.3%. You can adjust this according to your own level of play.

 

Examples:

WP = 52%, TP = 14.3% (nominal), total games = 469

WP = 54%, TP = 20% (better than avg), total games = 296

 

Now for those of you who are close to ranking out the current season and would like to know how many more games it might take according to your current stats, you would need to determine your TP as follows:

 

TP = (SC - TG*(2*WP-1)) / (TG*(1-WP))

 

where SC = stars count accumulated from rank 16 (or 51 - stars remaining until rank 1), TG = total games played this season.

 

Once you determine your TP, WP is known therefore if both remain constant, you could estimate the number of games remaining by calculating total games with the first formula then subtracting the games already played. 

 

I hope this thought experiment is useful to someone. 

 

Edits shown in BOLD

 


Edited by Bronco, 20 March 2017 - 07:37 PM.


Kerrec #2 Posted 20 March 2017 - 07:05 PM

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View PostBronco, on 20 March 2017 - 07:00 PM, said:

In case anyone is wondering how many games it would take them to rank out, I figured out a simple formula for you. The formula calculates the number of games from rank 16 since up to that point, no stars are lost. To progress from rank 16 to 1 requires 55 stars (please correct me if this is incorrect). Therefore, the total number of games can be calculated as follows:

 

Total games = 55 / (2*WP - 1 + TP*(1-WP))

 

where WP = win percent and TP = top percent (percent of times when you are the top XP earner in a loss) 

 

In a 7v7 match, your chance of being top XP earner in a loss is nominally 1/7 or 14.3%. You can adjust this according to your own level of play.

 

Examples:

WP = 52%, TP = 14.3% (nominal), total games = 506

WP = 54%, TP = 20% (better than avg), total games = 320

 

Now for those of you who are close to ranking out the current season and would like to know how many more games it might take according to your current stats, you would need to determine your TP as follows:

 

TP = (SC - TG*(2*WP-1)) / (TG*(1-WP))

 

where SC = stars count accumulated from rank 16 (or 55 - stars remaining until rank 1), TG = total games played this season.

 

Once you determine your TP, WP is known therefore if both remain constant, you could estimate the number of games remaining by calculating total games with the first formula then subtracting the games already played. 

 

I hope this thought experiment is useful to someone. 

 

 

I thought about figuring something like this out, but there's no way to know how many losses at level 12 didn't result in a lost star because of irrevocable rank.  You will also only know what your WP will be once you're done.  You can't assume it won't rise or fall on the way  to  R1.

Ace_04 #3 Posted 20 March 2017 - 07:09 PM

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Anywhere between 100 and 1000 games, depending on skill level.

 

It's too difficult to put a formula to statistics that are not static.


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Bronco #4 Posted 20 March 2017 - 07:10 PM

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View PostKerrec, on 20 March 2017 - 07:05 PM, said:

 

I thought about figuring something like this out, but there's no way to know how many losses at level 12 didn't result in a lost star because of irrevocable rank.  You will also only know what your WP will be once you're done.  You can't assume it won't rise or fall on the way  to  R1.

 

Yes, this formula doesn't include level 12 and if it did, the number of games would be less. Therefore, this formula calculates the worst case. It's more of a projection than a prediction.

Stampz #5 Posted 20 March 2017 - 07:11 PM

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Let me add to your data.

 

Took me 307 games to rank out.  You can see my average stats below in my sig.



Bronco #6 Posted 20 March 2017 - 07:12 PM

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View PostAce_04, on 20 March 2017 - 07:09 PM, said:

Anywhere between 100 and 1000 games, depending on skill level.

 

It's too difficult to put a formula to statistics that are not static.

 

True enough. In short, it does prove that a WP less than 50% can still rank out based on being top performer from time to time.

Bronco #7 Posted 20 March 2017 - 07:15 PM

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View PostStampz, on 20 March 2017 - 07:11 PM, said:

Let me add to your data.

 

Took me 307 games to rank out.  You can see my average stats below in my sig.

 

From your ranked stats, your TP was 13.3% (just below nominal). Congrats!

Bronco #8 Posted 20 March 2017 - 07:16 PM

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View PostBronco, on 20 March 2017 - 07:15 PM, said:

 

From your ranked stats, your TP was 13.3% (just below nominal). Congrats!

 

If we work the formula, TG = 55 / (2*0.5603 - 1 + .133(1-0.5603)) = 304 (off by only 3)

Black_Sheep9 #9 Posted 20 March 2017 - 07:18 PM

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Does your formula account for players playing ships that receive huge xp bonuses for doing bare minimum retaining their stars, while others that outperform them and do more for the team still lose their stars?

Edited by Black_Sheep9, 20 March 2017 - 07:19 PM.


Bronco #10 Posted 20 March 2017 - 07:21 PM

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View PostBlack_Sheep9, on 20 March 2017 - 07:18 PM, said:

Does your formula account for players playing ships that receive huge xp bonuses for doing bare minimum retaining their stars, while others that outperform them and do more for the team still lose their stars?

 

The XP modifiers do not play a role in determining the top performer. It's all based on the base XP earned.

Bronco #11 Posted 20 March 2017 - 07:24 PM

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View PostKerrec, on 20 March 2017 - 07:05 PM, said:

 

I thought about figuring something like this out, but there's no way to know how many losses at level 12 didn't result in a lost star because of irrevocable rank.  You will also only know what your WP will be once you're done.  You can't assume it won't rise or fall on the way  to  R1.

 

In fact, losing on the last star of level 12 is equivalent to being the top performer, you simply do not lose a star. Therefore, TP = (the number of games lost at the last star of R12 + games lost as top performer) / number of total loses.

ckupf #12 Posted 20 March 2017 - 07:24 PM

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You need less than 55 from rank 16, remember until you get to rank 10 you get a bonus star at each rank. By my count its 51 stars to rank 1 from rank 16.

 

I talked about this in my ranked post morterm, but didn't actually write the formula down. Thanks for that.

 

46 stars from rank 13 over ((.5362*2)-1+(1-.5362)(.323))=207

 

Perfect!

 

That being said the formula is limited because (after a bit of a rough start) I cruised into the premier at which point everything slowed down. Play quality went up for the most part.


Edited by ckupf, 20 March 2017 - 07:29 PM.


ckupf #13 Posted 20 March 2017 - 07:26 PM

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View PostBronco, on 20 March 2017 - 07:21 PM, said:

 

The XP modifiers do not play a role in determining the top performer. It's all based on the base XP earned.

 

He's talking about ship XP coefficients. Different ships earn XP in different ways. USN DDs, particularly Sims, are known as great XP earners.

Bronco #14 Posted 20 March 2017 - 07:30 PM

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View Postckupf, on 20 March 2017 - 07:26 PM, said:

 

He's talking about ship XP coefficients. Different ships earn XP in different ways. USN DDs, particularly Sims, are known as great XP earners.

 

Ok, but would that still apply to ranked battles. You would think those XP bonuses shouldn't really apply.

Pulicat #15 Posted 20 March 2017 - 07:32 PM

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View PostAce_04, on 20 March 2017 - 12:09 PM, said:

Anywhere between 100 and 1000 games, depending on skill level.

 

It's too difficult to put a formula to statistics that are not static.

 

sub 100 club. (not this season tho.)

 


Bronco #16 Posted 20 March 2017 - 07:33 PM

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View Postckupf, on 20 March 2017 - 07:24 PM, said:

You need less than 55 from rank 16, remember until you get to rank 10 you get a bonus star at each rank. By my count its 51 stars to rank 1 from rank 16.

 

I talked about this in my ranked post morterm, but didn't actually write the formula down. Thanks for that.

 

46 stars from rank 13 over ((.5362*2)-1+(1-.5362)(.323))=207

 

Perfect!

 

That being said the formula is limited because (after a bit of a rough start) I cruised into the premier at which point everything slowed down. Play quality went up for the most part.

 

Thanks, I will update the formula with 51 stars needed from rank 16.

ckupf #17 Posted 20 March 2017 - 08:04 PM

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View PostPulicat, on 20 March 2017 - 07:32 PM, said:

 

sub 100 club. (not this season tho.)

 

Nice never cracked 100, 109 is my best. 

Morpheous #18 Posted 20 March 2017 - 08:19 PM

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Does this formula help if it took 42 games to go from 15 to 14, incredibly true.   I was so ready for ranked and that happened.  My first game in the Shira was 133k and a loss and I knew it was going to be a bad day.  Third day I was about ready to quit ranked.  Won first game, second and then had like 10 wins in a row and dropped 2 ranks.  Sitting at 7/6 and pretty happy about that, but just can't muster the gumption to get to 1.  ah well.....

Bronco #19 Posted 20 March 2017 - 08:33 PM

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View PostMorpheous, on 20 March 2017 - 08:19 PM, said:

Does this formula help if it took 42 games to go from 15 to 14, incredibly true.   I was so ready for ranked and that happened.  My first game in the Shira was 133k and a loss and I knew it was going to be a bad day.  Third day I was about ready to quit ranked.  Won first game, second and then had like 10 wins in a row and dropped 2 ranks.  Sitting at 7/6 and pretty happy about that, but just can't muster the gumption to get to 1.  ah well.....

 

My main motivation was to prove to myself that if someone stuck it out, as long as you maintain a WR above 50%, you will eventually rank out given you don't lose a star when you are top performer and (as previously stated), level 12 is irrevocable. I know current WR cannot be used as a prediction of future events but if you average say 54% after 200 games, you're more than likely will average something similar over the next 200 (give or take 1-2%). 

 



Sharkbait_416 #20 Posted 20 March 2017 - 08:43 PM

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View PostBronco, on 20 March 2017 - 02:00 PM, said:

In case anyone is wondering how many games it would take them to rank out, I figured out a simple formula for you. The formula calculates the number of games from rank 16 since up to that point, no stars are lost. To progress from rank 16 to 1 requires 51 stars (previously stated as 55, corrected to 51 thanks to ckupf). Therefore, the total number of games can be calculated as follows:

 

Total games = 51 / (2*WP - 1 + TP*(1-WP))

 

where WP = win percent and TP = top percent (percent of times when you are the top XP earner in a loss) 

 

In a 7v7 match, your chance of being top XP earner in a loss is nominally 1/7 or 14.3%. You can adjust this according to your own level of play.

 

Examples:

WP = 52%, TP = 14.3% (nominal), total games = 469

WP = 54%, TP = 20% (better than avg), total games = 296

 

Now for those of you who are close to ranking out the current season and would like to know how many more games it might take according to your current stats, you would need to determine your TP as follows:

 

TP = (SC - TG*(2*WP-1)) / (TG*(1-WP))

 

where SC = stars count accumulated from rank 16 (or 51 - stars remaining until rank 1), TG = total games played this season.

 

Once you determine your TP, WP is known therefore if both remain constant, you could estimate the number of games remaining by calculating total games with the first formula then subtracting the games already played. 

 

I hope this thought experiment is useful to someone. 

 

Edits shown in BOLD

 

 

 

You made my head spin with that.. (Not a math guy)

It took me 216 battles to rank out. Premiere league took a while to acclimate to.


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